model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[damianslaw]

GFS showing a boxed in trough and low pressure circling in on itself to our NW in the far long term reaches.. signs of heights building to the north the reason why.. shift things further east and we would be locked on the colder side of the polar front.. alas apart from next 48 hrs looks like we will stay in the warm side for rest of the month but then good chance as we move through early November we will be edge on to the colder side - a slow protracted affair.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Certainly looks like one.....keep tabs on that!

After a brief cooler interlude the next couple of days, October looks to continue in the very mild theme for the rest of the month.

GFS and ECM have temperatures of 18-20c returning from the middle of next week onwards as another exceptionally warm airstream heads our way.



Not really a surprise when you see 850 temps at 14c. At the end of October. 

 

Sadly a dreadful outlook for those like myself who enjoy outdoor activities, nothing better than a cool,misty November morning when on the bank at 6am fishing . 

The outlook looks wet,and in the main very mild.

For my particular location the worst possible set up ,mild south Westerlies with lots of moisture means one thing ...

Paradoxically I will embrace the above for a seasonal December , but it seems an age since we had an old school cold foggy November.

 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just a short update post for today 

Decent outlook shown here, pretty much in line with my original predictions although, worried about that lot to the West but still far out for now. 

Xander 

[Methuselah]

As I like looking for the first real signs of incoming cold & snow, here are the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles for Suffolk & Moscow!

    

 

    

The merest scintilla of hope!

 

[Mapantz]

Several posts hidden and moved. 

Keep it friendly and on topic. 

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

 Yes, that is a hopefull prospect. However, the best expectation of longer term  amplification would be a spilt vortex to form. Signs from the latest ECM run at day 10 starting to show this maybe posssible looking at the lower atmosphere ( 500mb ) run. We need some crumbs of comfort from what is being shown in the short to medium term models. Think things will become more encouraging for us coldies in the next view days, especially as we enter November.

 C

24 hours on and the GFS continues to raise hopes of a return to a more amplified set up as we enter the first week of November. So some glee of comfort for those looking for a colder slot into the British Isles. Longer term model shows some drift and split in the Polar Vortex away from Arctic Northern Russia which may have the effect of developing a break off Lobe ideally positioned to entice colder conditions into NW Europe particularly. 

C

[northwestsnow]

Thankfully it's not late December!

[Frosty.]

The euro slug doing its thing on the ECM 12z op…but I don’t mind as long as it sods off by dec 1st!  

 

 

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The euro slug doing its thing on the ECM 12z op…but I don’t mind as long as it sods off by dec 1st!  

 

 

It looks like a mobile pattern to me, Karl, on its way out by T240:

The ridge in to Greenland could be more important.  But in the meantime, it looks mild, and wet for some.  

Edit, yep support for that from JMA T264:

Edited October 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It looks like a mobile pattern to me, Karl, on its way out by T240:

The ridge in to Greenland could be more important.  But in the meantime, it looks mild, and wet for some.  

Yes, not a great pattern to see setting up!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Yes, not a great pattern to see setting up!

Quite happy now if it is transient, Don, I’ve just edited my post to include the JMA, which is good.  When I say mobile, I don’t mean raging jet, I mean that the patterns are moving round the NH slowly, which they are.  Obviously, we hope they stop doing that come winter, but that’s a way off yet, so I’m happy with the NH trop profile at the moment!  Some weeks to go!   

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, not a great pattern to see setting up!

Let’s see the set up 240hrs past tense 

And how did it turn out 

Now’t to worry about

[damianslaw]

ECM looks like the record has got stuck between 168 and 240 hrs no movement in the high and low pressure which looks odd.

GFS showing more interesting fayre for the tail end of the month. Atlantic trough digs deep and through the UK kicking heights to the south aside and bringing in more sustained chillier conditions.

[Frosty.]

Just been looking through the GEFS 12z and although it’s a broadly unsettled and mild outlook, during very late October the mean suggests it could become more settled for a time across the s / se with some overnight fog as winds become lighter but staying more unsettled further n / nw and then becoming more generally unsettled again during early November, indeed there’s some cold / wintry potential early next month, especially further north. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Just been looking through the GEFS 12z and although it’s a broadly unsettled and mild outlook, during very late October the mean suggests it could become more settled for a time across the s / se with some overnight fog as winds become lighter but staying more unsettled further n / nw and then becoming more generally unsettled again during early November, indeed there’s some cold / wintry potential early next month, especially further north. 

Signs the trough will dig down and through the UK eventually meaning colder and unsettled rather than milder and unsettled.

[Man With Beard]

Anyone seen the little storm headed for Jersey tonight? Winds up to around 90mph according to ECM.

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

The euro slug doing its thing on the ECM 12z op…but I don’t mind as long as it sods off by dec 1st!  

 

 

Before that please!...it will take for ever and a day to get that continent to cool down.

[Methuselah]

Well, there's nowt too alarming on today's GFS 00Z run -- and little to point to the upcoming winter, either? I guess that (the long wait for the first snow) is why I find autumn the most frustrating of seasons?

    

    

    

And, as @Froze were the Days says above, mainland Europe's summertime legacy will take some considerable time to erode?

Edited October 21, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

Some very mild stuff on the 00z runs again into next week. Temps into the high teens from about midweek onwards.


 

[Earthshine]

A very warm autumn so far.  Wonder if we'll see a sudden switch next month?

[jonboy]

Just now, Earthshine said:

A very warm autumn so far.  Wonder if we'll see a sudden switch next month?

I keep seeing the best analogue, for the present conditions, years are 1962 and 2010 so lets hope

[damianslaw]

43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, there's nowt too alarming on today's GFS 00Z run -- and little to point to the upcoming winter, either? I guess that (the long wait for the first snow) is why I find autumn the most frustrating of seasons?

    

    

    

And, as @Froze were the Days says above, mainland Europe's summertime legacy will take some considerable time to erode?

There is a flip as we enter November.. those heights to the south pushed aside by the deep Atlantic trough which importantly shifts east into scandi and allows cooling into Europe including UK with azores high affected out west and mid Atlantic heights pushing north..  this is a more typical La Nina pattern for late autumn compared to now.

 

[sheikhy]

Very very dry and mild runs all the way to the end for my part of the world!!!!dont mind mild as long as there no rain!!!

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 azores high affected out west 

 

I will love it if we beat them!!!… …I mean, as a coldie I will love it if the Azores High gets displaced further west!!!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, there's nowt too alarming on today's GFS 00Z run -- and little to point to the upcoming winter, either? I guess that (the long wait for the first snow) is why I find autumn the most frustrating of seasons?

    

    

    

And, as @Froze were the Days says above, mainland Europe's summertime legacy will take some considerable time to erode?

It has certainly been quite a tedious autumn this time round. Here's hoping that November will have some spice to it.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91