model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Eagle Eye]

On 19/10/2021 at 14:04, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Nice to see somebody being optimistic. 

Don't see why there's so many downers on here right now a lot to look forward to it is STILL ONLY OCTOBER 

[Ali1977]

Not much to get excited about in the last few days FI, but this latest one looks different. Toggle between T372 and T384 and you’ll see the burst of height heading to western and central Greenland. It’s a one off FI chart, but may be the first response of the little strat warming happening. 

 

Strat warming starting to show here at 10 HPA, so maybe a bit premature to think this is showing anywhere near the surface. Definitely some interest early into Nov though, and at least moving into Nov any northerlies /Easterlies will be a little more potent if we end up in that type of set up big IF

Edited October 19, 2021 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

I must say I’m liking the look of Thursday, just look at that big blue arrow..perfik!  

[Ali1977]

Looks like a potential cold signal here Into mid Nov, Scandy high near enough. Not sure if the continent will be that cold for anything too exciting if it happened, but it would certainly feel chilly.  Caveat that’s it’s the CFSV2

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes it's day ten i know but the ECM NH view looks on setting a northerly up here with heights going up into Greenland

i am just pondering at the moment as there is nothing much else to add

Ooooh!!! wait a minute,...the jma has these at 240 and 264 so some consistency from them both.

.

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Not much to get excited about in the last few days FI, but this latest one looks different. Toggle between T372 and T384 and you’ll see the burst of height heading to western and central Greenland. It’s a one off FI chart, but may be the first response of the little strat warming happening. 

 

Strat warming starting to show here at 10 HPA, so maybe a bit premature to think this is showing anywhere near the surface. Definitely some interest early into Nov though, and at least moving into Nov any northerlies /Easterlies will be a little more potent if we end up in that type of set up big IF

 Yes, that is a hopefull prospect. However, the best expectation of longer term  amplification would be a spilt vortex to form. Signs from the latest ECM run at day 10 starting to show this maybe posssible looking at the lower atmosphere ( 500mb ) run. We need some crumbs of comfort from what is being shown in the short to medium term models. Think things will become more encouraging for us coldies in the next view days, especially as we enter November.

 C

Edited October 19, 2021 by carinthian

[Frosty.]

To me it’s interesting to compare the ECM 0z / 12z op respective day 10 output since there’s good continuity with the 12z just taking it a step further in the colder (better) direction!… …I really hope the arctic will be flexing its muscles a lot in the next 6 months or so!  

 

[Allseasons-Si]

On 19/10/2021 at 20:51, jon snow said:

To me it’s interesting to compare the ECM 0z / 12z op respective day 10 output since there’s good continuity with the 12z just taking it a step further in the colder (better) direction!… …I really hope the arctic will be flexing its muscles a lot in the next 6 months or so!  

 

I will be ready to flex my muscles in the next 6 months Karl,...and i cannot wait for a good roller-coaster ride,...love it in here in winter cos it feels that us nerds are a lot closer and it feels like one big happy cold family lol,...the mild rampers,..pffft ha ha

anyway,...onwards and upwards from here now and i hope that we have a good shot this winter...

see you lot on the Siberian express all 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

@mods,why is my post hidden^^

[The Northern Ramper]

9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

@mods,why is my post hidden^^

Who said that?

[johnholmes]

A view of the probable weather using the 500 mb anomaly charts

Wednesday 20 October

Long time since any charts copied and commented on!

Ec and still a trough dominated chart, fairly tight contours over uk with minimal ridging effect to south;main trough 40W

Noaa and similar pattern to ec, small +ve anomaly w of Iberia, trough similar position but more rounded

Surface weather looks fairly unsettled if these two charts are anywhere near what happens; any ridging at the surface will be brief between weather systems; 500 mb temperatures are a shade higher than they have been over the past week but on both charts the air is over n of Hudson bay before looping back just s of Aleutian islands, so never very mild other than in warm sectors of weather systems.

The 8-14 Noaa suggests little major change in the 500 mb pattern. This would suggest that the surface weather will also show not much change. Possibly a nw-se split for most of the 6-14 day period=less unsettled in the se; fog may be a problem some nights where winds are light and skies clear

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Methuselah]

Well, if the GFS 00Z is right, mainland Europe looks like staying warm, for the foreseeable?

   

    

    

I wonder if we are now witnessing an effect of a warming world, and a long-term shift toward more generally back-loaded winters and more extreme springs?

[Eagle Eye]

On 20/10/2021 at 09:54, Ed Stone said:

Well, if the GFS 00Z is right, mainland Europe looks like staying warm, for the foreseeable?

   

    

    

I wonder if we are now witnessing an effect of a warming world, and a long-term shift toward more generally back-loaded winters and more extreme springs?

It does seem that way, look at today for instance, these thunderstorms are becoming more common, twice in October and this doesn't seem to be a one off thing, this will happen more often and often, Christmas won't be like it used to be. 

[MP-R]

On 20/10/2021 at 09:57, Eagle Eye said:

It does seem that way, look at today for instance, these thunderstorms are becoming more common, twice in October and this doesn't seem to be a one off thing, this will happen more often and often, Christmas won't be like it used to be. 

Has been the case many times before and will be many times again. Mid September to mid November can be a great time for thunderstorms under these conditions - cold air clashing with warm air and warm SSTs.

[Badgers01]

On 20/10/2021 at 10:48, MP-R said:

Has been the case many times before and will be many times again. Mid September to mid November can be a great time for thunderstorms under these conditions - cold air clashing with warm air and warm SSTs.

Agree especially along south coast - quite normal part of autumn weather !

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if the GFS 00Z is right, mainland Europe looks like staying warm, for the foreseeable?

   

    

    

I wonder if we are now witnessing an effect of a warming world, and a long-term shift toward more generally back-loaded winters and more extreme springs?

 

Re the emboldened bit above....

You aren't trying to curry favours from Carrie are you?

Clearly putting your evil thoughts into youngsters minds.

MIA

Edited October 20, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[carinthian]

The GFS model forecasting some super warm upper air over the Eastern Alps today. I can tell you that this an under estimated forecast value as currently an amazing 17.6 c at 2000m level which is some way higher than the 850mb level heights shown on the picture below.

C

[Eagle Eye]

On 20/10/2021 at 11:03, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Clearly putting your evil thoughts into youngsters minds.

MIA

Oh no, I'm being poisoned 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Oh no, I'm being poisoned 

That's CO2 for you  

 MIA

[Methuselah]

As @Nick L suggested, elsewhere, we could be seeing some new date records being set towards the end of the month. The potential for Fohn winds could help too. Aboyne?

    

Edited October 20, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Typhoon John]

On 20/10/2021 at 11:31, Ed Stone said:

As @Nick L suggested, elsewhere, we could be seeing some new date records being set towards the end of the month. The potential for Fohn winds could help too. Aboyne?

    

Is that a medicane near to Greece?

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if the GFS 00Z is right, mainland Europe looks like staying warm, for the foreseeable?

   

    

    

I wonder if we are now witnessing an effect of a warming world, and a long-term shift toward more generally back-loaded winters and more extreme springs?

Long way off but those GFS charts at the end showing the diving trough scenario I was talking about as a reference point that all may not be normal service Atlantic wise for winter ahead..  only when such synoptics happen in November.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Typhoon John said:

Is that a medicane near to Greece?

Certainly looks like one.....keep tabs on that!

After a brief cooler interlude the next couple of days, October looks to continue in the very mild theme for the rest of the month.

GFS and ECM have temperatures of 18-20c returning from the middle of next week onwards as another exceptionally warm airstream heads our way.



Not really a surprise when you see 850 temps at 14c. At the end of October. 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

I honestly don’t mind charts like this in October from the 6z as it’s still only mid autumn, it’s easy to forget that the start of the meteorological winter is still almost six weeks away…even longer for those who insist winter starts on December 21st!  

 

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 06Z remains very much on the warm side of average. GFS 06Z:

    

    

    

There is, however, a hint of an Arctic HP driving something colder into NE Europe in the far-reaches of Fantasy Island. Isn't there always!