model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

surely theres 6, with one over the uk...

Possibly.  What interests me is this is the first time since I started model watching that we’re approaching winter after a long period (months) of a very meridional jet.  I know some have said the last time was 2010.  If at some period during (late) winter we are to see a period of really zonal flow - off the Atlantic for UK, to get there we may presumably have to get there via a 4 wave or 3 wave pattern which could be very blocked and stuck, and if so, will that coincide with the early part of winter?  We will see…

Edited October 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Possibly.  What interests me is this is the first time since I started model watching that we’re approaching winter after a long period (months) of a very meridional jet.  I know some have said the last time was 2010.  If at some period during (late) winter we are to see a period of really zonal flow - off the Atlantic for UK, to get there we must presumably may have to get their via a 4 wave or 3 wave pattern which could be very blocked, and if so, will that coincide with the early part of winter?  We will see…

Although I absolutely respect what you’re saying (and have been saying previously) Mike…I don’t think the somewhat unusual weather patterns we are having this autumn will have any bearing on what happens from dec 1st (start of the meteorological winter)…anyhoo, I digress.. …the current largely benign conditions days are numbered, next week is set to turn increasingly unsettled with bouts of rain and strong winds..longer term towards late October there’s evidence of a northwest-southeast split?.. which would be better news for the SE!..  

Edited October 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Sforzando]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Possibly.  What interests me is this is the first time since I started model watching that we’re approaching winter after a long period (months) of a very meridional jet.  I know some have said the last time was 2010.  If at some period during (late) winter we are to see a period of really zonal flow - off the Atlantic for UK, to get there we may presumably have to get there via a 4 wave or 3 wave pattern which could be very blocked and stuck, and if so, will that coincide with the early part of winter?  We will see…

Forgive the ignorance of a total newbie (well have been lurking for a while)... but interested by this concept and what it may mean for the winter - is there any objective measure of how meridional the jet has been over the last few months? I know the last few months have been exceptionally unwindy - is that any good as a proxy?

[Ali1977]

Still looking pretty cold late next week, firming up now I’d say. And that snow cover In Scandinavia is mighty impressive for late Oct. I doubt this area has had cover like that at this stage many times, to be fair some mid winters lately have had less.

 

And look at their midday temps Epic , some record breakers there maybe. Tromso in NW Norway has a record low of -9.6c in Oct, looks like that could be close to being beat as a daytime max 

Edited October 14, 2021 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational does turn cooler later next week from the north, (similar to what’s happening currently actually)… .. but it’s pretty toothless really and I can see why there’s been zilch mention of anything colder from the experts regarding later next week..just go and look at what’s happening in Levi, Finland right now, that’s wintry! 

Edited October 14, 2021 by jon snow

[northwestsnow]

GFS keen to bring a big +NAO into fi...

 

[booferking]

Gem is a nice taster for what's to come this year Northerly's & Sliders

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational in low res shows the revenge of the Azores high, coming to a cinema near you..this Halloween!  

 

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 12z operational in low res shows the revenge of the Azores high, coming to a cinema near you..this Halloween!  

 

Decent chilly feeling mean for next Friday though, a short sharp taste of early winter with some frost and northern hill snow possible then back to mild mush !! I mean, it is only October after all.  

[booferking]

Keen Northerly shown up on ECM sure will feel colder if this comes off.

[northwestsnow]

EC brings colder air South, Frosts for some  perhaps?

[blizzard81]

Not bad. We all believe in repeat patterns don't we? Well, when it suits

[ICE COLD]

ECM lovely and seasonal tonight from day 7

[sheikhy]

Jheeez!!!someone tell the ecm its only october!!!!that is some lovely wintery crisp frosty cold air sweeping down between 168 and 240 hours!!gona be approaching the end of october andwhere is the damn vortex!!

[sebastiaan1973]

Very cold run for the UK. Congrats! 

[blizzard81]

Just one run of course but that low coming in  from the atlantic could give the north some snow. Also, just look at those high uppers moving north in the US into Canada. 

[Frosty.]

At last, I’ve been banging on about cold potential later next week for days and days and finally  the ECM decides to join the party..until the 0z at least!   

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Is it too early to look for snow ❤

Our walks take in 430m Pennine  Hills,  at the very least it would be feel really fresh  if EC12z  came off.. !!

toddles off to check DAMS on ec

[Cambrian]

With all respect to the mighty ECM, the oft unsung GEM has been more impressive in leading the way if it does go properly cold from day 7 / 8. 
 

Again today, from the GEM 12z op, with the Atlantic low on a slider NW-SE trajectory captured at the base of the trough, the day 9 to day 10 progression shows the best scope for a real drawn-out tussle of the air masses (as alluded to by minus10 last weekend) with the colder air reasserting control at day 10, the -5 T850 reaching the North Wales coast and midday temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees from the Midlands north and for most of Ireland. 
 

Day 9

 

Day 10

  

What I like most about the GEM day 10 charts though, is that wouldn’t be the end of it either. 
 

[Eagle Eye]

15 October 14:00

0Z

6Z

Ouctome as of now

Future predictions

Continued slight southeast movement with the eastern movement of the low towards Britian with a better centred low early on

16 October 14:00

0Z

6Z

Outcome as of now

Future predictions

Further southeast movement continues with the weakenining of the low and the slight movement of the high on the western side to the North.

17 October 14:00

0Z

6Z

Outcome as of now

Future predictions

As it continues further south although the western side moves northeast so stage 2 sets over the United Kingdom the low to the west devlops further but not as much as before.

18 October 14:00

0Z

6Z

Outcome as of now

Future predictions

The low to the west continues building closer to Britian and Ireland which pushes the high south and the second stage of the high's eastern side pushes into Scandanavia which pushes what i'm calling stage 3, the low in Russia pushing into the high squeezing further into Europe. This shows how a little change can cause a change in the entirity of the run.

Future predictions in 1 paragraph

Continued slight southeast movement with the eastern movement of the low towards Britian with a better centred low early on, further southeast movement continues with the weakenining of the low and the slight movement of the high on the western side to the North. As it continues further south although the western side moves northeast so stage 2 sets over the United Kingdom the low to the west devlops further but not as much as before. The low to the west continues building closer to Britian and Ireland which pushes the high south and the second stage of the high's eastern side pushes into Scandanavia which pushes what i'm calling stage 3, the low in Russia pushing into the high squeezing further into Europe. This shows how a little change can cause a change in the entirity of the run.

Eagle Eye

 

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Frosty.]

A quick snapshot of the ECM 12z op / mean at T+192 hours…they both show a Northerly (ish)!  

Edited October 14, 2021 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, jon snow said:

A quick snapshot of the ECM 12z op / mean at T+192 hours…they both show a Northerly (ish)!  

That is a northerly no doubt about it.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

That is a northerly no doubt about it.

If I was being pedantic I would have said NW’ly / NNW’ly  

[Eagle Eye]

On 14/10/2021 at 21:52, jon snow said:

If I was being pedantic I would have said NW’ly / NNW’ly  

NNNW'ly? 

[Man With Beard]

For the "warmies"... October 19th, I present you with the final 20C day until March 2022.