Scotland Weather discussion

[Hairy Celt]

About another 1cm fresh overnight on top of frozen slush, and a mostly blue sky. The shift in direction of the wind to west of north means none will reach here...  well unlikely to anyway. 

[Ravelin]

48 minutes ago, GoldenJackel said:

View from the “office” this morning

If we're doing office window pictures ...

[Norrance]

Don't have an office now but here is my daughters view. 
Here a bit milder than the last couple of days at -2C.

Other daughter not so happy as has a burst pipe. Strange as there has not been a thaw yet. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Norrance

[Ross B]

Warning out for Friday   It has trended north a little but it wouldn't take much of a nudge south to bring us into the larger snow amounts here...

 

Outbreaks of sleet and snow will spread across much of southern, central and western Scotland through Friday. 1-3 cm of snow is likely in places below 200 metres, with 5-8 cm possible above 200 metres south of the Central Belt. Over high ground north of the Central Belt, there is potential for 10-20cm to accumulate above 200 metres through Friday. Later in the day, snow at low levels will likely turn to rain. In addition to the snow, sleet or rain may fall onto frozen surfaces leading to some icy conditions.

 

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Ross B

[dryfie]

Always wait longingly for this day, the earliest sunset of the year.

Today it's 15.37, but tomorrow you'll enjoy an additional minute of late sunshine until 15.38, then getting marginally later day after day.

Downside is that this improvement doesn't apply to mornings, with daybreak continuing to get later until early next year.

[Ravelin]

Way into fantasy land and will change with the next run of the models, but oh my, if only.....

     

[Dundeeguy]

Just squeezing inside the warning area

 

temperature looks cold even down at sea level with snow forecasted for coastal areas too. 
 

will this be a widespread snow event?  Even areas outside the warning area looking like getting a good covering.

 

Guarantee the Central belt is going to grind to a halt as usual

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Dundeeguy

[paget]

My office today (well every day!) could be worse!!! 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

I've put out a tweet promoting the weatherquest snowfall reporting system. Might be in some interest for a few in here? 

[Bullseye]

2 hours ago, Ross B said:

Warning out for Friday   It has trended north a little but it wouldn't take much of a nudge south to bring us into the larger snow amounts here...

 

Outbreaks of sleet and snow will spread across much of southern, central and western Scotland through Friday. 1-3 cm of snow is likely in places below 200 metres, with 5-8 cm possible above 200 metres south of the Central Belt. Over high ground north of the Central Belt, there is potential for 10-20cm to accumulate above 200 metres through Friday. Later in the day, snow at low levels will likely turn to rain. In addition to the snow, sleet or rain may fall onto frozen surfaces leading to some icy conditions.

 

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Ah man that tweet from Met Office showing the snaw coming in was a slight letdown for us, dosen't extend south enough to cover Glasgow but as you say hopefully nudge south to get us involved too!

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Bullseye
Link to tweet

[Ross B]

7 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Ah man that tweet from Met Office showing the snaw coming in was a slight letdown for us, dosen't extend south enough to cover Glasgow but as you say hopefully nudge south to get us involved too!

 

Yep, although I wouldn't be too disheartened as although the precip barely goes south of Glasgow on that image they have the warning all the way down to the border and across to the east coast. UKV has it over us between about 8am and lunchtime then potentially more bursts later in the day. My concern is that it may be sleet or freezing rain though! One for the radar on the day I think.  If it does hit those areas as snow then that's potentially an amber warning given it covers the M77/M8 and others at peak travel time!

 

Big difference to the latest GFS though which takes it even further north and only just reaches the central belt by about 3-6pm!

Edited December 14, 2022 by Ross B

[Snowandrocks]

Wind really picking up now with some decent drifting in the stronger gusts - some reasonable drifts already formed across the road when I came home an hour ago. 

Could get a bit lively when the heavier snow showers come through later. 

[Dundeeguy]

@Hawesy looks like even you might have a winter wonderland Friday ?

 

Must be a lot of snow to share around if even the east neuk gets some!!!

Edited December 14, 2022 by Dundeeguy

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Dundeeguy said:

Just squeezing inside the warning area

 

temperature looks cold even down at sea level with snow forecasted for coastal areas too. 
 

will this be a widespread snow event?  Even areas outside the warning area looking like getting a good covering.

 

Guarantee the Central belt is going to grind to a halt as usual

 

 

Got it turning to rain very quickly on low ground in central belt 

[SW Saltire]

48 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Yep, although I wouldn't be too disheartened as although the precip barely goes south of Glasgow on that image they have the warning all the way down to the border and across to the east coast. UKV has it over us between about 8am and lunchtime then potentially more bursts later in the day. My concern is that it may be sleet or freezing rain though! One for the radar on the day I think.  If it does hit those areas as snow then that's potentially an amber warning given it covers the M77/M8 and others at peak travel time!

 

Big difference to the latest GFS though which takes it even further north and only just reaches the central belt by about 3-6pm!

Starts to cry.

 

The cracking weather continues down here, totally sunny clear conditions. 
Yesterday a ‘high’ of -2.3c (second coldest of this spell), low of -6.1c.

Today currently -0.4c so a 4th ‘ice’ day looks likely.

Even the river Nith is starting to freeze in areas with the most shade. Gorgeous weather but looks like the dry weather is set to end. Here comes the rain! (At least the hills should stay White)

Edited December 14, 2022 by SW Saltire

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

55 minutes ago, Ross B said:

My concern is that it may be sleet or freezing rain though! One for the radar on the day I think

Still a number of ways the front could behave so I'll refrain from too much analysis on it at the mo but 

A key thing will be how the front is angled, I never get excited if its slowly creeping from northwest > southeast as its 95% weakening the further south east it moves

Here's the angle I wouldn't want from it 

This would be the dynamite angle  

The DPs look fine especially further east 

Normally we'd prefer it to be a trough as those have heavier precip but this is a bit different to the standard setups with the fronts that usually weaken. It'll be flanking off a low that's developing to our west/NW

Latest fax charts show a 4hpa pressure fall between midnight and midday Friday 

 

 

[SW Saltire]

Took some photos when I was back my house in the town (Not the best, phone hasn’t done it justice).
 

Last time the river Nith froze over was December 2010. Other cold spells were not quite long enough in duration. I remember the thaw in January 2011 when the whole river made almost disturbing cracking sounds as it broke apart. Nowhere near as thick this time but still impressively cold given its urban location about 20 miles from the solway.

Edited December 14, 2022 by SW Saltire

[Bullseye]

Not sure how reliable ICON is for precipitation but does show something for large part of Scotland on Friday. More of a nudge south meaning snow further south into central belt and down towards Ayr. Tracks further east too bringing Perth/Fife into firing line towards lunchtime Friday. North of central belt looks to be the place on this run. 

ARPEGE looking good too, pushes the front further east also. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Bullseye
ARPEGE added

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Snowandrocks said:

Wind really picking up now with some decent drifting in the stronger gusts - some reasonable drifts already formed across the road when I came home an hour ago. 

Could get a bit lively when the heavier snow showers come through later. 

Some picturesque little drifts forming in my garden over the course of the afternoon, but photo won't do them justice with current light conditions. Just back from walking the dog and that wind would cut you in two, and engulfs you in clouds of spindrift coming off the fields. Drifting across the road here too, but not too bad, yet.

[101_North]

15 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Not sure how reliable ICON is for precipitation but does show something for large part of Scotland on Friday. More of a nudge south meaning snow further south into central belt and down towards Ayr. Tracks further east too bringing Perth/Fife into firing line towards lunchtime Friday. North of central belt looks to be the place on this run. 

 

Oh deary me. That'll never do for here

[lorenzo]

Hmmm...

[Bullseye]

26 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Oh deary me. That'll never do for here

Not all is lost for you! Latest ARPEGE pushes some towards yourself during Friday morning/early afternoon. I'm rooting for ICON run, your rooting for ARPEGE, I know what one I'd rather trust

Scrap that, we are both rooting for UKV per @lorenzo post

Edited December 14, 2022 by Bullseye

[Ross B]

11 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Not all is lost for you! Latest ARPEGE pushes some towards yourself during Friday morning/early afternoon. I'm rooting for ICON run, your rooting for ARPEGE, I know what one I'd rather trust

Scrap that, we are both rooting for UKV per @lorenzo post

Yep, apart from the slither of sleet over our area 

[Bullseye]

2 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Yep, apart from the slither of sleet over our area 

Not sure what you are talking about there ...

[shuggee]

I will look back on these stats with disbelief in about six months time:

Snow day no. 6, min -14.1C and max of -7.2C, which is the eleventh air frost.