Scotland Weather discussion

[Stuart]

Thunderstorm still going strong here  been going on for over 1 hour

[Kayemill]

My view. 
 

Everything going east of us. 

[101_North]

Managed the dizzy heights of 19c here today but lower down and closer to the Forth is still struggling around 15c. Lovely day to be fair. Warm enough for shorts and a beer outside. Good enough for me

Edited June 11, 2023 by 101_North

[Ross B]

1 hour ago, Kayemill said:

My view. 
 

Everything going east of us. 

Similar here, we got a few spots of rain earlier but the showers missed to the east. All of the haze and high cloud has however cleared now and we have scorching sunshine (for Glasgow) coming in the west facing windows. 

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Still a line of thundery showers heading up the Caledonian Canal towards us and then off out into the Firth. Awns appeared on spring  barley overnight equating to half an inch of new  growth in the minimum of 20c. As I finish typing this the next batch of thunder and lightning is arriving

Effectively a thunderstorm streamer this afternoon with the last one approaching now Remember another about two years ago that came  on from a SE direction for a whole afternoon and evening in July.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Northernlights

[Ross90]

A little bit of rain here for the first time in 2 weeks today but not exactly torrential downpours so much as a couple of short showers. Looks like being back to hot and sunny for the rest of the week and possibly into the following week, wouldn't be surprised if there are water shortages if this continues into July.

[SW Saltire]

38 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

A little bit of rain here for the first time in 2 weeks today but not exactly torrential downpours so much as a couple of short showers. Looks like being back to hot and sunny for the rest of the week and possibly into the following week, wouldn't be surprised if there are water shortages if this continues into July.

Agreed, we’ll be in deep trouble if a proper breakdown doesn’t arrive before the end of June. I wonder if Scotland was as severely affected as England was during 1976, 1995 etc. We’ve surely made a strong start on the lack of rainfall front.

I forgot the BBC no longer use the Met Office for their forecasts and got a shock on countryfile when they used down here as one of the 4 locations for the 5 day forecast. Their prediction for tomorrow will surely be too high but quite shocking to see all the same. Would pretty much tie with last year which was a record (see photo - 32c).

Even if we ‘only’ get 30c, it does seem so easy now to get around 30c. I feel like only 10/20 years ago we had to build to push much above 25c… a worry

Edited June 11, 2023 by SW Saltire

[A Winter's Tale]

A nice warm summer evening after some rain yesterday - which ended a run of 20 days without rain. The Spring was rather uninspiring overall but late May and June so far has been remarkably dry with a lot of warm and fine weather. Not particularly hot with 24C the highest recorded at Glasgow airport so far - we should see reach 25C at some point in the following days.
 

A better start to summer than last year and tne recent weather has reminded me of the early summer weather in 2016, 2018 and 2021. 2018 and 2021 were excellent summers overall while 2016 faded after a promising start. I’d expect we’ve probably seen the best of the settled conditions though I think the hottest weather is probably yet to come. Yesterday nearly saw 30C in Ayrshire which is a notable temperature this early in the season. It seems to be easier to record such temperatures nowadays and should we end up in the firing line of a plume then we could see more widespread temperatures in the high 20s/low 30s. 

[Northernlights]

Thunderstorms have faded away to be replaced by slightly cooler  air  and mist,   Fabulous growing conditions have probably been one of the wettest areas in Scotland today and the farm is very grateful for that. Currently 17c

[A Winter's Tale]

19 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

Agreed, we’ll be in deep trouble if a proper breakdown doesn’t arrive before the end of June. I wonder if Scotland was as severely affected as England was during 1976, 1995 etc. We’ve surely made a strong start on the lack of rainfall front.

I forgot the BBC no longer use the Met Office for their forecasts and got a shock on countryfile when they used down here as one of the 4 locations for the 5 day forecast. Their prediction for tomorrow will surely be too high but quite shocking to see all the same. Would pretty much tie with last year which was a record (see photo - 32c).

Even if we ‘only’ get 30c, it does seem so easy now to get around 30c. I feel like only 10/20 years ago we had to build to push much above 25c… a worry

In the UK only 2 of the last 8 years failed to record 35C with 37C+ recorded in 2019, 2020 and 2022. In the past few years in Scotland we’ve seen: 31.9 in Bishopton (2018), 31.6 in Edinburgh (2019), 30.8 in Prestwick (2020), 29.6 in Kirkcudbrightshire (2021) and 34.8 in Charterhall (2022). There’s definitely been a step change in the past 5 years with higher temperatures more easily achieved. Obviously a warmer atmosphere the main factor though drier soils possibly a factor aswell.

That forecast for Dumfries is remarkable (especially before mid June) but not that surprising. I suspect the nearest stations to Dumfries in Eskdalemuir and Dundrennan won’t record 32C though Carlisle might.

Considering this summer has started drier than last year I think we could see temperature close to or exceeding the old Scottish record if we get a plume sometime between late June and mid August. The recent rainfall in southern Europe could mean the air might not be as hot as last year though the models are still showing some very high uppers across parts of Europe/N Africa (which has been a feature of recent years). 

We could do with some more rainfall to the limit the risk of water scarcity and wild fires. Yesterday’s rain was welcome but ultimately too scattered and short lived to have an effect. 
 

 

 

[Quinach]

First appreciable rain here in goodness know how many weeks, but extremely localised in nature.

Proper downpour in Aberdeen around lunchtime but barely a drop out towards Dunecht.

Warm sun late in the afternoon rapidly evaporating what rain did fall here, soil as dry as ever.

Some dramatic clouds at times this afternoon.  See we're on the very edge of the thunderstorm warning for tomorrow, some nice cloudscapes hopefully.

Cloudy morning holding down the temperature, max of 19c - though it's a impressive 15c outside at the moment.

[SW Saltire]

57 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

In the UK only 2 of the last 8 years failed to record 35C with 37C+ recorded in 2019, 2020 and 2022. In the past few years in Scotland we’ve seen: 31.9 in Bishopton (2018), 31.6 in Edinburgh (2019), 30.8 in Prestwick (2020), 29.6 in Kirkcudbrightshire (2021) and 34.8 in Charterhall (2022). There’s definitely been a step change in the past 5 years with higher temperatures more easily achieved. Obviously a warmer atmosphere the main factor though drier soils possibly a factor aswell.

That forecast for Dumfries is remarkable (especially before mid June) but not that surprising. I suspect the nearest stations to Dumfries in Eskdalemuir and Dundrennan won’t record 32C though Carlisle might.

Considering this summer has started drier than last year I think we could see temperature close to or exceeding the old Scottish record if we get a plume sometime between late June and mid August. The recent rainfall in southern Europe could mean the air might not be as hot as last year though the models are still showing some very high uppers across parts of Europe/N Africa (which has been a feature of recent years). 

We could do with some more rainfall to the limit the risk of water scarcity and wild fires. Yesterday’s rain was welcome but ultimately too scattered and short lived to have an effect. 
 

 

 

Brilliant post, providing far more data than I could.

You can now add yesterday’s 29.7c from Ayrshire for 2023 and as you say we’re not even at mid June.

I’ll not go off on a tangent but yes, the lack of official weather stations is very frustrating. Dundrennan is coastal (and 20 miles away to the SW) and Eskdalemuir is 200m asl and about 20+ miles ENE. Neither will reach 30c tomorrow but it’s likely where I live will. I’m sure this picture is reflected all across Scotland but hey ho. 

Fully agree re rainfall. It’s good some has arrived but far too little. I’ve never seen the ground so burnt looking (which will only be aiding the heat achieved during the day).

[dryfie]

2 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

Agreed, we’ll be in deep trouble if a proper breakdown doesn’t arrive before the end of June. I wonder if Scotland was as severely affected as England was during 1976, 1995 etc. We’ve surely made a strong start on the lack of rainfall front.

I forgot the BBC no longer use the Met Office for their forecasts and got a shock on countryfile when they used down here as one of the 4 locations for the 5 day forecast. Their prediction for tomorrow will surely be too high but quite shocking to see all the same. Would pretty much tie with last year which was a record (see photo - 32c).

Even if we ‘only’ get 30c, it does seem so easy now to get around 30c. I feel like only 10/20 years ago we had to build to push much above 25c… a worry

I too saw Country File and nearly fell off my seat.  Trouble was that one screen shot included the Dumfries table 32 for Monday, whilst the next, mapped temperatures for Monday had a 27 point value there!  Not a regular for Country File, neighbour says Landward is similar, except it’s about the country.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Far too busy lately but just caught up on all the posts for last couple weeks. Yes rain here at last things were getting desert like, around third of an inch in the rumbling thunderstorms of this evening. Need more though! Cracking sunset with the mist as storms cleared

[Northernlights]

Struggling to sleep still 17c so thought I would share a story I was discussing with Aurora Storm yesterday.

Have grown Cambridge Favourite strawberries for 60 years here in the garden.

My mother was a keen Wimbledon Fan back in the sixties and seventies and at the start in the last week of June we would watch strawberries being eaten at Wimbledon . No strawberries ready  here but by the first week in July we had strawberries too and they would last till about the 1st of August 

Now in the last twenty years or so we often have strawberries about the 10th of June and they finish about the end of the first week in July. I put this down to climate change with generally milder winters and when the springs finally warm up warmer nights too. 

These thunderstorm streamers like we had yesterday did not happen then in June.    We mostly had single  thunderstorms coming down from the south over the Cairngorms and then only in late July and early August. Its a much longer thunderstorm season now from late May to early September and coming in from all points of the compass. Cloud to ground strikes are much more common too now with only sheet lightning or cloud to cloud strikes the standard then.

[mistyqueen]

Morning Happy Campers! Roasting up here, weather station says 24c and it's just after 8am. Guess I won't be doing as much in the garden today as anticipated! Waaaaaay too hot for me! We've not had any thunder here but I did see some flashes of lightning away over on the mainland early Saturday morning. A mere drip or two of rain only and not much more forecast any time soon. Not good! Our local hotel and one other house in the village have private water supply. Guess they'll be limiting showers there then!

[SW Saltire]

As above! Absolutely roasting already, just hit 21c. Cloudy but sun starting to break through, incredibly humid.

[Jo Farrow]

Thunderstorm for the A96 A97 this morning and temperatures stepping up now in the sunshine for NW. Hardly any wind today

[Hawesy]

Leuchars recorded 19c this morning making it comfortably the warmest day of June thus far (and also a far cry from the hot temperatures being discussed above!).

The east/west divide is illustrated by the June 2023 mean maximum at Glasgow Bishopton being 21.1c to date while over at Inverbervie it’s 12.3c!

Haar hanging on here in Pittenweem, 15c.

[dryfie]

Totally missed any rain here, so thought I'd check local river levels.  Surprised to find not at record lows.  SEPA data only found back to 2017:

The Annan at Brydekirk:  Today 0.37m, record low 0.341m 26/7/21

The Esk at Canonbie:  Today 0.20m, record low 0.177m 21/7/22

 

Some quite substantial rainfall totals in Highland and Grampian yesterday:

Drummore of Cantray (Moray)     48.8mm in four hours, including 23mm in one.

Sgodachail (Suth)     36.2mm in three hours, including 14mm in one.

Culloden     17.6mm, including 10mm in one.

Nairn Golf     17.4mm,          Lossiemouth     15.8mm,          Avochie     14.6mm.

 

 

 

 

[SW Saltire]

54 minutes ago, dryfie said:

Totally missed any rain here, so thought I'd check local river levels.  Surprised to find not at record lows.  SEPA data only found back to 2017:

The Annan at Brydekirk:  Today 0.37m, record low 0.341m 26/7/21

The Esk at Canonbie:  Today 0.20m, record low 0.177m 21/7/22

 

Some quite substantial rainfall totals in Highland and Grampian yesterday:

Drummore of Cantray (Moray)     48.8mm in four hours, including 23mm in one.

Sgodachail (Suth)     36.2mm in three hours, including 14mm in one.

Culloden     17.6mm, including 10mm in one.

Nairn Golf     17.4mm,          Lossiemouth     15.8mm,          Avochie     14.6mm.

 

 

 

 

Yes, unsure what the most notable part of this warm spell is. I suspect the lack of rainfall.

Even if we include all of May (which had some rain in the first 10 days)… Compared to the average for the two months May (84.5mm) and June (81.4mm) we are are 16% of average so far. June only having recorded 1.2mm so far

(I thought we’d had more on saturday night but SEPA says otherwise)

However on the heat front, before today June’s average max is well above average.

Interestingly, my nearest met office site (which they don’t release daily data for) has seen it’s average June max rise from 17.4c (1981-2010) to 17.9c (1991 - 2020).

We’re currently at 23.42c as a running max for this month which is 5.5c above normal. If we get 30c today then we’d be at an average max of 24c.

I see Keswick is top at the moment. It’s currently 28.1c here. Too hot, I far prefer temperatures between 21-24c than this. Pray for a breakdown next weekend

Edited June 12, 2023 by SW Saltire

[Snowandrocks]

Humid with hazy sunshine - not sure of the temperature but my train from Insch to Aberdeen is apparently delayed due to extreme weather! 

Not sure whether that's extreme heat or if there were thunderstorms further west. Whatever it is the AC isn't doing a very good job - it's sweltering in here. 

[Ross B]

26c, clear blue sky with strong convection to the east.  Some good looking storms heading north /north west from Ayrshire 

[Quinach]

After a sunny start, now 100% cloudy - and that low featureless type rather than some exciting towering Cumulonimbus ...

Some impressive thunderstorm activity over towards Keith and Huntly but nothing here.

Warm though at 23c with a light but steady SE wind.

[Dundeeguy]

Hazy sunshine and clouds mostly disappearing now to leave a clear blue sky , Dundee

 

currently 21c