model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[tight isobar]

On 18/11/2021 at 04:52, CreweCold said:

Special special run though. Won’t see many like that back end of November. The Arctic pretty much empties out over the UK (modified of course), the result is a snow fest for some parts. I’d bank it any day of the week.

.. a great but bizarre out.. @ extraordinary!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 18/11/2021 at 04:53, tight isobar said:

But ok we’ll take it... it’s shearing the vortex .. and cutting the mother lobe off... and the disired quarter!!

The way the trop vortex drops S across N Europe is akin to what we usually see happen over Canada and the states. Obviously they suffer with less modification of the airmass but let’s not take anything away from the synoptic beauty of that run.

Something like that happening mid Jan would be a country crippler.

Edited November 18, 2021 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

On 18/11/2021 at 04:56, CreweCold said:

The way the trop vortex drops S across N Europe is akin to what we usually see happen over Canada and the states. Obviously they suffer with less modification of the airmass but let’s not take anything away from the synoptic beauty of that run.

Indeed.. it’s akin to an American vortex drop.. but into nw  -Europe!!. Amazing Synoptics, and if they were to hatch the egg as modelled later it goes out of imagination .. the possibilities!!

Edited November 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS look good up to 162 hours too…they’re just rolling out now.

Control has -10 uppers pushing S at 168

Edited November 18, 2021 by CreweCold

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

GEFS look good up to 162 hours too…they’re just rolling out now.

Indeed, look at the latitude difference of the high compared to the 18z on the mean

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 18/11/2021 at 05:09, Battleground Snow said:

Indeed, look at the latitude difference of the high compared to the 18z on the mean

To be honest I’m pretty speechless from what I’ve seen from the GFS this morning. Then add to that the UKMO which was an absolute pearler. 

I feared the worst when I saw the ICON.
 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control pushes -12 uppers!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I need to sleep. Pray ECM doesn’t spoil the fun.

[tight isobar]

..@ rolling

[Paul]

I've split out a last few pages of this thread into a fresh one here: