model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters. Firstly, you do know about the coloured border for these don’t you?  Most will but I’m sure there are some newbies here who don’t!  

The cluster charts are bordered either by blue, +NAO, green -NAO, purple Atlantic ridge, red Scandi block.  Now at this stage of winter (or nearly winter!) we are looking for a Greenland blocked scenario first, and second -NAO. 

So the early one, ECM seem to come up with 6 scenarios which are just one as far as the UK is affected!  T72-T96:

All we really need to know is all the borders are purple, as they are again T120-T168:

What you can see here is clusters 3 and 4 are slow to clear the UK high west, but they make up only 19 out of the 51 runs, and may only delay things anyway.

T192-T240:

6 choices here again, what I would say up front is they are all blocked scenarios.  And in all 18 charts is a block somewhere near Greenland.  All of them.  Finally T264+

And here we are probably rooting for clusters 2 or 3, but by this point it is up in the air, and it would be easier to wait next week out and see what they are saying then!

All in all, excellent ensembles, excellent clusters, what can go wrong?

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good god...check out the ens.. looks like matt Hancocks lie detector tests..

Dropping like a stone.

[Crackerjack]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters. Firstly, you do know about the coloured border for these don’t you?  Most will but I’m sure there are some newbies here who don’t!  

The cluster charts are bordered either by blue, +NAO, green -NAO, purple Atlantic ridge, red Scandi block.  Now at this stage of winter (or nearly winter!) we are looking for a Greenland blocked scenario first, and second -NAO. 

So the early one, ECM seem to come up with 6 scenarios which are just one as far as the UK is affected!  T72-T96:

All we really need to know is all the borders are purple, as they are again T120-T168:

What you can see here is clusters 3 and 4 are slow to clear the UK high west, but they make up only 19 out of the 51 runs, and may only delay things anyway.

T192-T240:

6 choices here again, what I would say up front is they are all blocked scenarios.  And in all 18 charts is a block somewhere near Greenland.  All of them.  Finally T264+

And here we are probably rooting for clusters 2 or 3, but by this point it is up in the air, and it would be easier to wait next week out and see what they are saying then!

All in all, excellent ensembles, excellent clusters, what can go wrong?

Thanks Mike for that. I genuinely didn’t know that, thought it was done just for effect  

[bluearmy]

Just had a look though the ecm model runs for this period from 2010. there really isn’t a lot in common for next week other than cold and a euro trough of some type 

[Frosty.]

This is an absolutely stunning ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight, jaw dropping!…I’m actually quite excited..can you tell???!  

 

[knocker]

The ext mean anomalies this evening  remain amplified, albeit not in complete agreement, with a NW upper flow to the Euro trough. But the ecm/gfs tend to lose amplication during the period so although temps remain below average, less so by the end

[TSNWK]

On 17/11/2021 at 20:08, bluearmy said:

Just had a look though the ecm model runs for this period from 2010. there really isn’t a lot in common for next week other than cold and a euro trough of some type 

Hello.. what we missing from 2010 and is it something we can work on next few days?

[Northwest NI]

On 17/11/2021 at 20:22, TSNWK said:

Hello.. what we missing from 2010 and is it something we can work on next few days?

We were a lot younger but nothing can be done about that.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. what we missing from 2010 and is it something we can work on next few days?

Loads of snow?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is where we stood around this timeframe back in 2010..

To compare is foolish I know..every event being the chance to be unique in its own right! Even with the differences currently,who knows what we could be staring down the barrel at this time next week.

The much colder snap looks to becoming a distinct possibility....beyond that,do we really know! We live in uncertain times with all aspects of life...the weather being the most prominent of them all!

I for one will just sit back and enjoy the ride...knowing that I'm still sat here thinking!! You know what Matt...its not even December yet.

And I will be switching on the Xmas lights very soon...so I'm as happy as a sand boy.

Don't ya just love being in control  

[Eagle Eye]

On 17/11/2021 at 20:24, Northwest NI said:

We were a lot younger but nothing can be done about that.

I was 3 
On a side note, slowly rolling closer

Edited November 17, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Mark Parsons]

There are short wave possibilities but come with those dreaded warm sector's......or something from the north east more organised, all nearer the time potentially??

[Mapantz]

If you wish to discuss previous years winters, you can use this thread

You can also use that thread for general chat that doesn't fit in here.

I suspect it is going to get even busier in here over the next few days, so we need to keep to the correct topic discussion.

Cheers.  

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Mapantz

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I was 3 
 

When it’s gone tits up, that’s about the age most on here turn in to, it’s all prams and toy throwing

[supernova]

It's already been stated that 2010 was a 1 in 100 year event and, as much as we'd like it not to be the case, we're unlikely to see a repeat next week (more's the pity - we were buried in Lincs). Synoptical comparison (variable dependent on which model output and date you choose obvs but I've selected something tasty from the GFS just as a guide). Lot's of fundamental differences. Just managing expectations, although anything could still happen obvs (including rain Ed)!

Basically suggesting that we shouldn't be looking back to 2010 as any sort of guide or expectation, and should instead be focusing on what the models are portraying in the current output, not least in this thread. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by supernova

[weathercold]

What are the key differences between 2010’s setup and this? When 2010 charts started to count down to T-0 was it clear at that point we were in for a deep freeze or did the longevity and severity catch out many? Could this projected spell take us down that road…potentially?

[Ice Day]

Evening all - fancy seeing you lot still here!

My first post of winter 2021-22 and the big question is what type of winter do we have ahead of us?  Past history dictates it's most likely to be 95% frustration with the final 5% either total abject failure or complete elation (assuming you're of the cold persuasion!). 

Anyway, onto the upcoming cold snap/spell ahead of us. Things are looking pretty dandy at this point.  The GEFS from 12z show quite nicely how many members are showing wintry potential (this is for my location).

Based on these, it looks like we should be seeing a 3-4 day spell at worst. 

Whilst I'm not seeing anything particularly severe at this point (certainly not a nationwide snow event), some areas will potentially do very well; our Scottish friends should definitely be paying attention!  However, given we're not even in December yet, this is a cracking start to the season.

What is encouraging is the potential for reloads, we've seen our weather stuck in a rut for a few weeks before, this would be a very nice rut to get stuck in!

Bring it on, the chase starts all over again!

 

 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I was 3 
On a side note, slowly rolling closer

I'm sure you said you were 57!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

It's already been stated that 2010 was a 1 in 100 year event and, as much as we'd like it not to be the case, we're unlikely to see a repeat next week (more's the pity - we were buried in Lincs). Synoptical comparison (variable dependent on which model output and date you choose obvs but I've selected something tasty from the GFS just as a guide). Lot's of fundamental differences. Just managing expectations, although anything could still happen obvs (including rain Ed)!

It was maybe a 1 in 100 year event at the time.  But that was a decade ago, and I don’t think we know how global warming has affected the chances of such events now.  There is evidence that more extremes are possible, in winter as well as summer, and in winter it would mean less often, but more significant when they do hit.  I think this upcoming spell might be relevant in this debate.

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

What are the key differences between 2010’s setup and this? When 2010 charts started to count down to T-0 was it clear at that point we were in for a deep freeze or did the longevity and severity catch out many? Could this projected spell take us down that road…potentially?

Yes, to the last question.  Because once it sets in there is nothing upstream off the Atlantic to blow it away.  I can’t comment on the specifics of 2010 because it was before I was a model watcher.  

[Northwest NI]

On 17/11/2021 at 20:28, Eagle Eye said:

I was 3 
On a side note, slowly rolling closer

You probably still got toys to throw then lol

[Eagle Eye]

216 hours and snow in Kent (mid-day to be fair), closer than yesterday that's all I can say

[SqueakheartLW]

Just for comparison between coldest GFS 06z member 30 and the latest coldest GFS 12z member 5

06z

12z

All I can say here is almost as good and yet another one for me to BANK !!!

BOOM BOOM BOOM !!!!!!

[Griff]

Been a long day at work, sadly had to sit out 4pm to 7pm on here. Great content to catch up with. 

Not one to post anything in FI (), here's a perhaps more reliable round up of the 144s, apologies if this is repeating anyone else's posts, but it looks as if you've all also been busy. 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

You probably still got toys to throw then lol

Oh, when those teddies pass my window, I will cry (by and by); when those teddies pass my window, I will cry (I will cry)?

Come on, guys? There's a latent Country Classic in there, somewhere!

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Just for comparison between coldest GFS 06z member 30 and the latest coldest GFS 12z member 5

06z

12z

All I can say here is almost as good and yet another one for me to BANK !!!

BOOM BOOM BOOM !!!!!!

Holy moly, that 12z P5 must have brought the whole vortex down on us!!  Maybe we need to temper our expectations a smidgen!  I’m more interested (at the moment) in the potential longevity of this spell, I think it could rule the roost over our weather until Christmas now.  I can’t see where the driver to return to zonal comes from, there isn’t one.  Anyway, we will see…he said with more optimism than usual…

Edited November 17, 2021 by Mike Poole