model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,GFS ECM GEM GEFS,all continue struggling with the evolution in around 6 to 7days.

Not worth throwing your hat in either way at present,in the meantime chilly with Northwesterly/ possible 

North winds likely for 4 / 5 days and feeling like Autumn enjoy.

[Mike Poole]

I think as a coldie, I would take heart from tonight’s 12z ECM ensemble mean, and just wait for things to pan out into winter proper.

Bear in mind this is a mean chart 10 days away, it has the vortex over towards Russia where we want it, some signal for height rises over Greenland, and a hint to drive low heights into Europe, just a hint though at this time.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T264+

There’s a chance, you’d have to say that with clusters 1,3,4,5 that a tweak anticlockwise (which is the direction of travel), could result in something significant, far too soon to call, but of interest…

[Newberryone]

While uncertainty is very much to the fore from approx 5 days out one can see that the 12z ecm is much slower than it’s Oz run in making any dent in high pressure to the south which does mean things look far less unsettled now as a result  going into week 2. Only question now is whether or not that high to the south will gain a further hold and therefore fend off any advancing low pressure systems potentially approaching from the northwest Atlantic by days 9 and 10

[swfc]

Well the pub run shows some incredible ridging to the east stretching threw svalbard and to the western Atlantic. Bit of a "steelers wheel" job for us but if that run varifies il cycle naked on a penny farthing threw town centre whistling cumbiare!!!!

[Methuselah]

Another rather uninteresting GFS 00Z this morning. But, at least some cold air might get into mainland Europe. Eventually!

    

    

    

 

 

[SLEETY]

Ecm turning most of Europe very mild as we head towards winter, no sign of anything cold from that model

[Weather vane]

ECM, GFS, GEM all showing some effort to push colder air down on NW Europe at 240hr. Aftet that, GFS goes with mega euro high deep into FI (surely not !!!!). Let's  hope for coldies that the NW trough push wins out over southern hp advancement.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Another rather uninteresting GFS 00Z this morning. But, at least some cold air might get into mainland Europe. Eventually!

    

    

    

 

 

Highly amplified picture mid month. That ridge looks like nosing NW joining heights to the NW.. low pressure sliding under with a deep scandi trough.

 

[Weather vane]

How often do we get high pressure at this latitude, at this time of year,  stretching pretty much from Newfoundland to siberia ???

[MP-R]

On 01/11/2021 at 09:08, Weather vane said:

How often do we get high pressure at this latitude, at this time of year,  stretching pretty much from Newfoundland to siberia ???

Simple answer - very rarely! Classic summer chart that.

[Cambrian]

Looking like a good, dry and calm bonfire night for most under a welcome high pressure on the 0z GFS operational run, away from a bit of rain and breeze in western Scotland.

  

Chilly in southern parts as the night goes on.

  

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Looking like a good, dry and calm bonfire night for most under a welcome high pressure on the 0z GFS operational run, away from a bit of rain and breeze in western Scotland.

  

Chilly in southern parts as the night goes on.

  

Good to see a dry spell is on the cards and lasting into Bonfire Night. I think a few events are happening on Saturday though and a pity can't hold onto the fine weather for one more day.. a dry week and wet weekend not the best combination at this time of year when you have little daylight during working week..

[throwoff]

Generally looking good for cold and dry as we move into the middle of the month. There are as always some mad charts off in FI.

[Paul_1978]

On 01/11/2021 at 08:00, SLEETY said:

Ecm turning most of Europe very mild as we head towards winter, no sign of anything cold from that model

That's OK - winter is 4 weeks away yet! Plenty of time for mainland Europe to cool down.

[mb018538]

Still looking like very mixed signals towards mid month now. I was rather hopeful that it would quieten down - and that still may happen, as both the GFS and ECM ensembles both have strong hints at this....but it's quite finely balanced. 

The MJO passage has become much more muted in the last few days - the latest GFS doesn't even get it out of the COD, which would really inhibit high pressure moving in.



Until then it's notably drier for many....though NW Scotland suffers badly on the 00z ECM as another atmospheric river gets stuck and dumps another 6-8 inches of rain here. Usual NW/SE split in rainfall distribution.

[sheikhy]

26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still looking like very mixed signals towards mid month now. I was rather hopeful that it would quieten down - and that still may happen, as both the GFS and ECM ensembles both have strong hints at this....but it's quite finely balanced. 

The MJO passage has become much more muted in the last few days - the latest GFS doesn't even get it out of the COD, which would really inhibit high pressure moving in.



Until then it's notably drier for many....though NW Scotland suffers badly on the 00z ECM as another atmospheric river gets stuck and dumps another 6-8 inches of rain here. Usual NW/SE split in rainfall distribution.

Doesnt look like much rain for a lot of england for the next 10 days!thank god!!!could be a few frosts thrown in as well which will be very welcome!!not had a single frost all autumn over here!!!very mild autumn so far!

[Froze were the Days]

Just looking at the ECM after this cooler period coming up thereafter it just looks like the same old pattern being regurgitated - low pressure to the north west and the continental heights and mild/warm conditions prevailing only for low pressure then to stall close to the UK.

There we go my layman's medium term outlook

[MP-R]

On 01/11/2021 at 10:44, sheikhy said:

Doesnt look like much rain for a lot of england for the next 10 days!thank god!!!could be a few frosts thrown in as well which will be very welcome!!not had a single frost all autumn over here!!!very mild autumn so far!

Would continue the general theme of the last five months - short very wet spells followed by longer much drier spells. We might have to endure another soaker at some point in November to get the jet to move south again.

[swfc]

Not a bad set of ens on the gfs 6z and the mean is pretty decent imo. Cool/coldish in fi so things nay to bad for November

[Methuselah]

Another unexciting run from the GFS 06Z. But at least it came out an hour 'earlier' this morning!

    

    

    

Anyway, as many others have pointed out, many a time, on here, winter is still a month away. 

And, is that a damp 'octopus' over there in Europe?

[Eagle Eye]

Who needs lunch anyway? 

I'd much rather spend my time looking at charts at almost day 10 on 1 single GFS run that'll most likely be an outlier of sorts 

The one thing I find extremely annoying is that the Atlantic is still going to be intervening in this and unless the cooler air can win the so called 'battle' in the Atlantic then this run is as good as done for for our mid-range Winter. Still lots too look forward to, 4 more months of "IT'S GOING TO SNOW" followed by "IT'S MARCH WHY IS IT STILL SNOWING" 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

looking through the MJO data there was also a brief bit of phase 6 which ties in with the ridging in the Atlantic and brief northerly for us

  recently MJO has been switching between phases 2 and 1 with modelling looking similar too, lower pressure to the north  

awaiting to see which phases MJO moves to next for this month.

[Ali1977]

That’s one strange FI chart!! 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 01/11/2021 at 17:12, Ali1977 said:

That’s one strange FI chart!! 

Look at all that warmer air pushing deep into Russia all the way from southern Europe too

Temperatures at or above 0C right up in the Arctic too

Edited November 1, 2021 by SqueakheartLW