model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[swfc]

 Gfs 12z control is  a snorter!!!

Edited November 2, 2021 by swfc

[booferking]

The control about to unleash ❄

Edited November 2, 2021 by booferking

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh!!!!,...hello 

the control is in control

that would be a similar 2010 redux.

Edit:,...a few frames on,...steady on there lol.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh!!!!,...hello 

the control is in control

that would be a similar 2010 redux.

Edit:,...a few frames on,...steady on there lol.

Right if anyone is looking for snow and cold those charts are prime time❄!!!!!cant get any better!!!mid november with winter not having begun yet!long nights and shilort days getting even shorter as each day passes!it really cant get any better for the time of year!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

"BLACK HOLE ALERT"

this is where we want that + hp anomaly...

[Mapantz]

Before people get too carried away, the control run was on its own from day 12.

The rest of it was meh.

[swfc]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Before people get too carried away, the control run was on its own from day 12.

The rest of it was meh.

Nice to see tho even if it's for fun

[swfc]

get anywhere near this, this winter and wow

Edited November 2, 2021 by swfc

[Methuselah]

Well, here we go; another GFS 12Z operational run suggests nothing out of the ordinary:

    

    

    

And, as was pointed out above, the control run is so far 'out there' it barely needs any consideration. At least for the time being: 

   

[TSNWK]

On 02/11/2021 at 18:16, Mapantz said:

Before people get too carried away, the control run was on its own from day 12.

The rest of it was meh.

Spoil sport... Let's have a little light hearted fun..

[Mike Poole]

I think the thing about the GEFS 12z control run is it shows that it is possible.  Some times at this time of year the zonal train is running at full pelt and it just isn’t possible.  We are so not in that position this year.  The atmosphere has been conducive to a very meridional jet now for months, and that is still the case.  Where we need that little (big!) bit of luck is for the right warm air advection to get one of the main highs around the globe to anchor on Greenland.  The control run does that, signs of it a couple of frames after the end of yesterday’s ECM 12z, and showing up in the clusters on the longest timescale.  

So it is beyond day 10, we know that.  If it is going to happen it should gradually become more prevalent in the op runs in the next few days.  Mid month looks good, and if a Greenland high does materialise, the 4 wave pattern could well lock it in.  

ECM T240, and it is the low indicated that could act as the catalyst for WAA on this run (black arrow), same timescale, as it migrates towards us (red arrows).

Edited November 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

So, an incredibly intense storm (aleutian low) just off western Canada on the ecm at 168hrs. Nowhere to be seen just 24 hours later at 192hrs. Strange to say the least. 

[Cambrian]

The 12z GEM operational run is up to some fun and games at 216 / 240h as well. Dartboard low bringing a chilly northwesterly our way. Plenty of upstream potential if it happens.

 
 

It has some potential for longevity too, with WAA out of Canada towards Greenland, not classic yet but some scope for getting there.

 

The control run is sniffing out some potential for a northerly at 240h too.

 

[Decemberof2010]

Right let the endless chase begin

Ladies and gentlemen I give you p21

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

"BLACK HOLE ALERT"

this is where we want that + hp anomaly...

Brilliant control run SI...its a little on its own with the current ens though,and we have quite an assortment of scenarios. I'm still feeling confident of a much more seasonal 2nd half of the month though.

Just check this member out..almost like a spring chart of very warm air to the south...and much colder air towards the North!

Would be some excitement on the battle lines of this one! I nearly choked on me bangers and mash  

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Right let the endless chase begin

Ladies and gentlemen I give you p21

-14c uppers into the U.K. by mid Nov, I wonder if that would be a record - I imagine it’s happened late Nov but not. Mid Feb. shame it’s JFF, but great chart 

[carinthian]

Evening all, this mean chart from GFS interests me. The lower heights in the Western Med continue to develop during the next 144t. That in effect holds a sandwich block close to the British Isles and unlikely to sink. Two scenarios  are likely for the high to move W/SW or E/NE . Resultant weather type could be very different. Looking at some old weather logs and training manuals it would not be impossible to end up with a Scandinavian high shown on that chart below.  Of course the models not really showing that development . However, I am highlighting of the possibility based on some of my past experience, but current form still tends to a milder scenario as trying to tap into prolonged cold always seems to be a bridge too far these days !

 C

C

[Decemberof2010]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

-14c uppers into the U.K. by mid Nov, I wonder if that would be a record - I imagine it’s happened late Nov but not. Mid Feb. shame it’s JFF, but great chart 

Yes, JFF like you say, but a crazy chart for sure. Wouldn’t have though those uppers have happened too many times this time of year. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, T192 to T240:

Cluster 1 just has the UK high, but the other two show the upstream low that might push up heights into Greenland that I indicated on the op run, beyond T240, indicated. So what of the later T264+ timeframe:

Well it’s there, cluster 4.  In the mix.  Can’t ask for more this 12+ days out.  

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

OK last one from me tonight but anyway here goes....

lets have a look at some other stuff to determine where we are maybe heading out to day ten +:-

A look at the day ten anomalies firstly and i can see things settling down over the UK with some fine weather during the day and maybe some frost and fog patches too at night with winds upper westerly becoming lighter in the ext esp the south

looking at the AO/NAO and the NAO shows that we have been in neg phase for some time(black lines) but in the forecast there seems to be an uncertainty as to where we are going to end with some staying neg and some going positive where the black X is(we don't want this scenario),the AO looks to ramp up a tad in the near future but will it tank into neg values again?

a quick look at the De-built(Holland) ECM ens temps/dew points,some of the ens are going quiet chilly here with some dew points going for -5 ,this could be surface cooling due to the hp's position in some of the ens,there are a few cold easterlies in there too but not many

and lastly the MJO from the gefs forecast to go into phase 6/7,this i will be watching as phase 7 into 8/1 is the direction of travel hopefully and we need this to be as amplified as possible(red arrow)

so there we have it,i don't do MT's or FT'S,La nina,el nino etc as i really need to have a better understanding of these even though @Tamara post's her expertise on these,...i still can't get my head around them ha ha,come on Tam's,...give us a clue on where we are with these please

have a good evening everyone and stay safe and well,...

P.S,...it's getting to that time of the year and i am looking forward to this,...AGIAN

see ya for now.

[stodge]

Evening all

I applaud the enthusiasts who can get so much from tonight's 12Z output.

The GFS OP is very typically anticyclonic late autumnal fare - the interesting thing is the shift of core heights from the south west more towards the east and we get a situation we often see with a large mid-latitude block over the east of Europe deflecting the jet up and over Scandinavia. It either means mild or very mild SW'lies or just possibly a cooler continental feed but nothing too dramatic.

I do wonder if heights to the east will play more of a role this early season - that would be indicative of a weaker than usual PV giving a chance of some heights building into Scandinavia. 

[Allseasons-Si]

On 02/11/2021 at 18:59, blizzard81 said:

So, an incredibly intense storm (aleutian low) just off western Canada on the ecm at 168hrs. Nowhere to be seen just 24 hours later at 192hrs. Strange to say the least. 

Hitting land swallows it up as my best guess there as do with Hurricanes/tropical storms. 

[Eagle Eye]

Silly season is definitly upon us, ladies and gentlemen I give you P9

Snow in the South East in November and a wide range of the snow as well. 

And it all continues 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[damianslaw]

Need to give the models a few days before we know likely direction of travel as we move through mid month period. The models are offering varied affair now, trying to get to grips with where to place the highs and lows in what looks to continue to be a amplified flow in the main, despite more of a westerly feed this weekend and into the new week.

We are seeing more models showing azores high kicked west into atlantic than heights building strongly to the east.. I would not be surprised to see GFS ops toy with strong heights to the NW rather than to the east in future days, but probably flip flop between the two before settling on the NW scenario. We shall see.

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Need to give the models a few days before we know likely direction of travel as we move through mid month period. The models are offering varied affair now, trying to get to grips with where to place the highs and lows in what looks to continue to be a amplified flow in the main, despite more of a westerly feed this weekend and into the new week.

We are seeing more models showing azores high kicked west into atlantic than heights building strongly to the east.. I would not be surprised to see GFS ops toy with strong heights to the NW rather than to the east in future days, but probably flip flop between the two before settling on the NW scenario. We shall see.

 

Yep totally agree here.  I’m expecting the same.  It can be really fiddly to get heights into Greenland even when the wider atmospheric pattern is conducive (it is now, I think) but odds on it will happen, I think.  Any road, fascinating model watching over the next couple of weeks, I think!