model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[damianslaw]

GFS sticking with a more amplified flow and a NW airstream gaining greater influence. ECM sticking with the euro high dominance. Always side with the GFS when it comes to getting developments to our NW correct. ECM I tend to think performs better when there is blocking in situ and more so continental influences. GFS tends to sniff out NW and N airstreams far better. 

These assertions are based purely on observational acuity of watching the two models for over 15 years.

Edited November 4, 2021 by damianslaw

[ICE COLD]

Let’s hope the models start to show what the met office are saying on there extended outlook for mid month onwards because at the min it doesn’t look very good . If anything the mean is on the rise after day 10

[Penrith Snow]

Terrible and incredibly boring output this morning, ECM gives us the type of winter chart we all hate with a strong Euro slug while GFS is only marginally better. Glad I am writing this from my house in Southern Spain but I worry my return to the UK in late November will not be met by better model offerings. 

Andy

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Terrible and incredibly boring output this morning, ECM gives us the type of winter chart we all hate with a strong Euro slug while GFS is only marginally better. Glad I am writing this from my house in Southern Spain but I worry my return to the UK in late November will not be met by better model offerings. 

Andy

Indeed, these are not the sort of charts we want to see as winter approaches!  Just have to hope this changes but what will be will be.....

[damianslaw]

Both ECM and GFS showing interesting output. GFS a diving trough through the UK and heights building in behind in cold air.. ECM showing heights transferred to scandi and also azores high far to SW, incoming low likely to be negatively aligned. Both different outputs but on the same theme - significant amplification. All though at long range.

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Terrible and incredibly boring output this morning, ECM gives us the type of winter chart we all hate with a strong Euro slug while GFS is only marginally better. Glad I am writing this from my house in Southern Spain but I worry my return to the UK in late November will not be met by better model offerings. 

Andy

Not sure I'm reading the same charts.. see my post.

[jules216]

Ive said it many times over past weeks ever since 14.10 that pattern in central Europe is setting up to be poor. Almost like all La Nina analogs can be binned these days as this will be second basically snowless November La Nina here, which never used to happen here in Central Europe. New times with Haddley cell expanded north that helps keeping those subtropical highs anchored too much northward.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Terrible and incredibly boring output this morning, ECM gives us the type of winter chart we all hate with a strong Euro slug while GFS is only marginally better. Glad I am writing this from my house in Southern Spain but I worry my return to the UK in late November will not be met by better model offerings. 

Andy

The hjghlighted sectioon is once again just a subjective opinion with no attempt at objectivity which, heaven forbid, might be of interest to some. One could equally argue that the continual posting of single charts in the 10-15 day period incredible boring as they have as much chance of verifying as me fitting into the NW community.

Anyhow now I'm in here a quick look at the ext anomalies, Tpv lobe over the Arctic with trough ext. down to the Labrador Straits area with a strong westerly jet running south of this around the Azores HP pushing north in the vicinity of the UK. How much influence this has appesars to be down to the alignment of the aforementioned trough. Temps around averager

Edited November 5, 2021 by knocker

[mb018538]

Latest ECM data - staying mainly settled for the UK in the next couple of weeks. A lot of purple on the regime block chart, which shows an Atlantic ridge could start to show it's hand more widely from around mid month.



GFS shows this on the 00z run, but a fair bit of scatter elsewhere:



Ensembles have trended drier and more settled again today. Temperatures at or slightly above average on the whole:

[Frosty.]

This is nae bad, I cannae wait!    

Edited November 5, 2021 by jon snow

[Stu_London]

8 minutes ago, jon snow said:

This is nae bad, I cannae wait!    

Superb cold rain charts

[sheikhy]

40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Both ECM and GFS showing interesting output. GFS a diving trough through the UK and heights building in behind in cold air.. ECM showing heights transferred to scandi and also azores high far to SW, incoming low likely to be negatively aligned. Both different outputs but on the same theme - significant amplification. All though at long range.

Exactly what i was thinking mate!!not sure what kinda charts some of them are viewing in here!!very likely the ecm would undercut after 240 hours with that scandi high to the north east!!dont matter really though cos it will look different on the next run anyway!

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

Superb cold rain charts

Hopefully it gets pushed back run by run atleast about another 3 to 4 weeks. Anyway I'm in Northern Scotland then this set up would be loaded with wintry potential up in the Cairngorms  

[swfc]

Pretty concistent gfs 6z and 12z today esp in fi. Decent nw to se flow and a cooling down setting up

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, this morning's GFS 06Z operational run has a whiff of the brown-and-smelly about it! Just as the winter approacheth, so does the cack! But, never fear: it's only one run from one model -- everything will come out in the wash?

    

    

    

Don't mention the fog!

[Eagle Eye]

On 05/11/2021 at 09:02, knocker said:

One could equally argue that the continual posting of single charts in the 10-15 day period incredible boring as they have as much chance of verifying as me fitting into the NW community.

 

Day 10 charts 100% chance of coming off then 

If so, can I have p18 please? 

[johnholmes]

57 minutes ago, swfc said:

Pretty concistent gfs 6z and 12z today esp in fi. Decent nw to se flow and a cooling down setting up

It is just turned 1200 Z as I type so I wonder where you get the 12z data from so early?

[damianslaw]

56 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, this morning's GFS 06Z operational run has a whiff of the brown-and-smelly about it! Just as the winter approacheth, so does the cack! But, never fear: it's only one run from one model -- everything will come out in the wash?

    

    

    

Don't mention the fog!

Best not to look too far beyond 6 day timeframe. Entering a fairly fluid period when sudden developments spring up scuppering medium range outputs. Incidentally GFS 6z still amplified and a NW feed and trough dropping through UK occurs 16th to 19th continuing theme jet will eventually elongate more NW- SE. The 20th chart prone to high margin for error I feel.

[swfc]

28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It is just turned 1200 Z as I type so I wonder where you get the 12z data from so early?

Sorry 0z and 6z

[Frosty.]

This may seem desperate but I’m not really, it’s still autumn innit! 

[Methuselah]

41 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Best not to look too far beyond 6 day timeframe. Entering a fairly fluid period when sudden developments spring up scuppering medium range outputs. Incidentally GFS 6z still amplified and a NW feed and trough dropping through UK occurs 16th to 19th continuing theme jet will eventually elongate more NW- SE. The 20th chart prone to high margin for error I feel.

I think you're right, Damian: there is indeed a teeny-weeny bit of uncertainty involved!

    

[Decemberof2010]

Some slight differences at day 12 on the GFS

06z

12z

Edited November 5, 2021 by Decemberof2010

[swfc]

[swfc]

  bit of snow cover guys

Edited November 5, 2021 by swfc

[Methuselah]

What's this, then? -10C T850s into East Anglia on a strong northerly wind? November 1965 redux anyone? I think I would very much like to see this one to verify. No need to worry, however -- it won't!