model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[ICE COLD]

Anyone order a split PV . Very strange charts from the 18z .  In a good way tho . 

Edited November 5, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Griff]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone order a split PV . Very strange charts from the 18z .  In a good way tho . 

This run reminds me of that one unflappable, upbeat teacher "remember kids, there are no wrong answers..." 

But miss, you're a science teacher! 

[swfc]

Polar vortex in tatters, at least while tom

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 22:57, ICE COLD said:

Anyone order a split PV . Very strange charts from the 18z .  In a good way tho . 

It looks like a robot on steroids lol,and the gfs is as well ha ha

sink that trough over us a few hundred miles SE and we will be in busyness

 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a major possibility looking at the cpc anomaly charts shaky.

but where would the hp anomaly shift?

That’s Day 8 ….a little ahead of the period we’re looking at offering potential …..

good to see the pub run showing just how unpredictable the amplification is likely to be to pin down ……. Wheel out the donkey again ! 

[ICE COLD]

The 18z is a mad run , good night to the pv . 

But I did love the 12z 

[Allseasons-Si]

SE she goes,...wow man look at that.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

SE she goes,...wow man look at that.

That is some chart!!i mean there is no polar vortex anywhere in the world!!!!troughing galore into europe!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The two recent gfs ops in the realms,...both with huge possibilities.

18z 348 and 12 354

something's afoot,all i can say is the Atlantic looks dead in both,...yeah!

 

[swfc]

Bookmark!!!! 

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone order a split PV . Very strange charts from the 18z .  In a good way tho . 

Sort of evolution to expect after a SSW. Quite odd but the digging of the trough through the UK negatively aligned perhaps not so.. as many anomalies charts show ridge to the west and east for mid to late November and the trough through the UK.

Edited November 5, 2021 by damianslaw

[swfc]

Good set of ens tonight. Mean and gfs spreads are  snorters

Edited November 6, 2021 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

On 06/11/2021 at 00:12, swfc said:

Great set of ens tonight. Mean and gfs spreads are huge snorters

What pert is that 5?

i will raise you on p12

i hope that this momentum keeps up,my daughter cannot remember 2010 as she would of been 4yr's old but i keep on banging on about it that one day that that winter will arrive again,...Awww bless her.

 

 

Edited November 6, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Uncertainty]

Just now, swfc said:

That shows the level of uncertainty is huge, but that the reason for that is that a significant minority of perturbations show a substantial Atlantic ridge. Many do not however hence the mean is unremarkable.

Let’s see this for four days straight and the signal to get stronger. The GFS did well with spotting the Atlantic heights earliest last winter so it’s without doubt one to keep an eye on. 

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What pert is that 5?

i will raise you on p12

i hope that this momentum keeps up,my daughter cannot remember 2010 as she would of been 4yr's old but i keep on banging on about it that one day that that winter will arrive again,...Awww bless her.

 

 

Yes p5. Not a bad set tbh. Can see things gathering pace Into next week, hopefully

 

[Ali1977]

Great consistency from the ECM at day 8, should be another cold looking day 10. GFS Op not so good but the control and many ENS are!! 
 

00z

Yesterday’s 12z

Control FI

Edited November 6, 2021 by Ali1977

[Griff]

Gem and ecm this morning,  

[Griff]

Gem at day 10 is a tease

[carinthian]

Interesting run from UKMO this morning. The 168t extended leaves some intriguing outcomes ?

C

[SLEETY]

Models seem  to be firming up on some  sort of Northerly in the future,hopefully we will know how potent in the next few days.

A famous winter in the past had a very severe northerly outbreak in November...

[damianslaw]

Interesting UKMO sending a deep low north through mid Atlantic instead of NW which in turn promotes a strong ridge to build to the east through the UK that heading northwards with deep trough to east. Highly meridional pattern, amplified theme continues. Almost omega block territory and this is for just a weeks time.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Yes the mid term seems to have potential for collies ,or at least those wanting some seasonal weather mid November onwards...

The ec weeklies seem to be suggestive of higher pressure to the west of the UK , I suspect the key is how much amplification we see ,possibility of deep cold through a Greenland high ,or something like a cold High ...

 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes the mid term seems to have potential for collies ,or at least those wanting some seasonal weather mid November onwards...

The ec weeklies seem to be suggestive of higher pressure to the west of the UK , I suspect the key is how much amplification we see ,possibility of deep cold through a Greenland high ,or something like a cold High ...

 

My collie Dosnt like winter but good points

[swfc]

Gfs 6z continues the ridging theme to the west and east of the UK. If ridging is too make inroads ie towards Greenland ideally any low pressure exiting the esb would head up the Western side of greenland. WAA would be a plus also

[E17boy]

Hi morning peeps

hope you are all well

Well looks like from the models that in the coming days some kind of high pressure will take form of our weather. The extended Met update ties in with this as well. However since the last update the latest update has gone away from the NW and Northerly winds also precipitation only possibly wintry on northern high ground instead of extending to lower levels.

Settled conditions with high pressure most likely through the period. Conditions are likely to be less windy than the previous period overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than normal. Frost and fog becomes increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average initially with a chance of wintry conditions over northern hills. Overall remaining drier than average throughout this period, with temperatures generally near average.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Nov 2021
 

My conclusion is no real sign yet of any widespread wintry weather. Yes fog and frost maybe a common theme which may suppress temperatures to an extent, but this is nothing unusual for November.

The main focus now is what happens after with this high pressure.

some of the following outcomes may be possible.

…..As some have already mentioned and some kind of suggestions possible from the models, forcing may push the high westward or northwestward in which case we may get the gates open for colder air from the NW or N

 

….. another possibility the high may just stick over us and we will eventually get our own pool of cold but dry frosty and foggy weather will be most likely in this set up

 

…… the high may move on out east and this may allow weather systems from the west again Over us again the position of the high will determine what direction these systems will take so the worst feared set up we could end up with southerly or southwesterly winds. Alas if this pattern prevails then from past experiences this does take some time to shift and we could end up with weeks of Atlantic weather.

…… Another set up could be that if there is enough forcing the high could push into Scandinavia and then we may be talking business if the gates open for easterly or northeasterly winds. I am keeping an eye on European temperatures and they are now beginning to drop eg Moscow is coming at the moment at minus 1 and 0 degrees far better than what it was last year this time

So these are the possible outcomes that could happen. I am not very knowledgeable like others but have tried to put together best examples from past setups that I have seen. 
 

To finally conclude I think it is a waiting game to see what happens to this setup. If we can get some low pressure from Iberia this will help as it may force the high to move in the direction we want ie N, NW or NE. What I don’t want is this high to drift SE or S then we could be stuck in a rut if west to east pattern takes hold and once these come established these can be the main spoilers of winter.

hope you all have a great day 

stay safe 

Kind regards

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IS UNDERWAY