model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Just read the latest update and then looked at the Ukmo 12h @ day 6 …and there’s something very wrong unless I completely misread the latest update?…perhaps they are a day behind.. ?   

 

It's the same as yesterdays and does not at all represent the UKMO chart. It's often 24 hrs behind..

[Allseasons-Si]

Lol look at this V cold straggler

p28

and as @damianslaw says,looking at the gefs ens for day ten,the majority sink a trough through the UK thanks to the  hp cells to the west and east but strongest W/SW ,this in turn could lead to reloads from the NW if the Azores high retreats further W/SW.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96:

What’s going down?

1 - initial burst of WAA, but will be overcome.

2 - Vortex away from our sector.

3 - next amplified low providing WWA impetus:

4 - same again, let’s see how the rest of the run unfolds…

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120

Again, it is the next ridge that is important not this one !  

[Allseasons-Si]

There is already more trough separation at 120 than this mooring's run from the ECM thanks to a more amplified downstream low off Newfoundland.

[Griff]

Ecm vs ukmo

[Mike Poole]

OK so prediction, this ridge will pass on, the next will hold, ECM T144:

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM at 144...

can we slow this evolution down a tad more in future runs?,...i am still watching that back door.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Griff]

ECM looking more amplified than GFS, will probably end up GEM like @Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

The JMA at day ten also sends a trough through the UK...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, think there’s going to be a switch to heights into Greenland on the next 2 or 3 charts (I know there isn’t a third one, I’m just suggesting this outside the T240 timeframe)… 

I’m sure the Scandi high is just a passing phase here.  

Edited November 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[swfc]

Ec more amplified on the 12z. Nothing spectacular but a step in the rite direction.

[Griff]

18 minutes ago, Griff said:

ECM looking more amplified than GFS, will probably end up GEM like @Mike Poole

Curse of the commentator

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Curse of the commentator

Lol, not a good end but the reliable time frame is about T144 at best, so we can probably let this one go.  

[Frosty.]

Roll on winter!!!   ️  

[SqueakheartLW]

I think I'm going to BANK !!!  P6 on GFS extended for early December 2021. A nice start to the official winter period

Dec 4th

Dec 5th

Dec 6th

Dec 7th

Dec 8th

Dec 9th

Dec 10th

BOOM !!!!

Lets get winter off to a proper start.

[sheikhy]

Pretty darn boring ecm this evening!!at least its a move toward ukmo early on but we need to see better on the 00z!!!

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all firstly well done UKMO on picking up on the high level blocking at 144hrs first 

followed by GFS later.ECM GEM all trying to work out exact positioning of pressure rise,

not sure wise to look at anything more than 144 hrs at present.Dry cold and frosty a strong contender 

for middle of the month but as stated 6 days is at the moment the safe bet to rely on.

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all firstly well done UKMO on picking up on the high level blocking at 144hrs first 

followed by GFS later.ECM GEM all trying to work out exact positioning of pressure rise,

not sure wise to look at anything more than 144 hrs at present.Dry cold and frosty a strong contender 

for middle of the month but as stated 6 days is at the moment the safe bet to rely on.

Indeed. But never underestimate the degree of uncertainty?

    

[Frosty.]

Maybe this is wishful thinking but I really hope Spurs win soon. ! …what I mean is the longer term ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight hints at something colder from north of west into the last third of November?!.. COYS!   

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

ECM has moved into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, at the crucial 120-144 hr mark, always the boundary between reliable and semi-reliable. All three models showing a crisp dry sunny weekend ahead, with probable frost. I'll take that for mid November, which traditionally is usually overcast and quite miserable.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, I’m going right for the chase here and the T264+ ones, the minority by 25 to 26 here:

With the Greenland high scenario, the other one isn’t game over by the way, still high lat blocking just not in the right place!   Anyone else smelling the coffee? I am, last third of November is cold city…we will see…

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

ECM has moved into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, at the crucial 120-144 hr mark, always the boundary between reliable and semi-reliable. All three models showing a crisp dry sunny weekend ahead, with probable frost. I'll take that for mid November, which traditionally is usually overcast and quite miserable.

Spot on. November's are known for their dank, dark and unfortunately mild conditions. I am looking forward to the increasingly likely cool/cold crisp upcoming weekend which is incredibly rare for the UK during November's. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T144:

Is that really credible, 100 mb between the Atlantic and Greenland, I’ve drawn it but probably in a really rubbish colour!  Meanwhile, circled in red is the real interest…..

[Griff]

Pub run doing pub run things... Seems more amplified (could put this on repeat)...