model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[seabreeze86]

Getting very close to the B word here on the GFS. Definitely something brewing cold wise it’s just how cold we need everything almost perfect in mid November but of course its happed before 

[Cold Winter Night]

Well, well, well. Coming back after a summer break and wintry charts popping up for mid November already?

This setup in FI even has a certain 2010 flavour to it, although one week earlier.
Interesting developments.

 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Getting very close to the B word here on the GFS. Definitely something brewing cold wise it’s just how cold we need everything almost perfect in mid November but of course its happed before 

Fingers crossed for some GEFS support , then if the ECM follows I expect a few B words - and lots of Twitter activity

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, booferking said:

Something colder is definitely afoot run after run they keep appearing.

Direction of flow has been persistently to look to the NW as we move further into November.. just a case of when.

[sheikhy]

Cracking 12z!!!!gfs goes from cold and frosty to potentially cold and snowy!!absolutely perfect for snow cover with a good week of cold ground temperatures!!!

[SLEETY]

Gfs starting winter early this year if its correct,very cold Maritime Arctic air sweeping down the whole country,but at 9 days away,open to change !!

[Methuselah]

The cold mightn't be so deep on the GFS 12Z, but it sure covers more area!

    

Get ready for life on the cusp!

[minus10]

From this:

To this :

In 72 Hrs on gfs 12z.

Dont it just make you want to 'scream'

 

[swfc]

Kop for that babbie!!! Not bad for autumn be it fi etc

[Paul]

GFS this evening tying in with the @Thundery wintry showers latest month ahead forecast:

Monthly Weather Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Bradley in Kent]

On 08/11/2021 at 17:05, minus10 said:

From this:

To this :

In 72 Hrs on gfs 12z.

Dont it just make you want to 'scream'

 

I've got a feeling we're going get more teasers than usual this winter. The pub run will probably revert to a brief pre-topple Northerly. Still, I'd much rather see these sort of charts even in FI! Those isobars on the 12z go right back to the North Pole!

[SLEETY]

Even colder air waiting to pounce at the end from the NE! I would take an early season cold-spell,if you think how severe it was in early December 2010,even here in the extreme South.

[sheikhy]

Control much flatter at 216 hours!!mean as expected flat as well!!op is the most generous lol!!!last few days it was the control and ensembles that looked tasty now its the op!the ups and down topsy turvys!!

[Methuselah]

Things are indeed starting to get a bit more exciting now. We mightn't see very much snow down here in the SE, but the parameters look very good for some deep convection off the still-warm North Sea?

    

[booferking]

Control not far of agreement just one day later

[swfc]

On 08/11/2021 at 17:27, sheikhy said:

Control much flatter at 216 hours!!mean as expected flat as well!!op is the most generous lol!!!last few days it was the control and ensembles that looked tasty now its the op!the ups and down topsy turvys!!

It be going up shortly sheikhy I tell thi. 

[Eagle Eye]

Once I'm home straight to the laptop to check the models
Just going to be sitting there for ages as that high looks like it'll topple over and perhaps bring an even better split PV which could be better for snow after a brief settled period looking forward. All far out at the moment but still something to look at.

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, Paul said:

GFS this evening tying in with the @Thundery wintry showers latest month ahead forecast:

Monthly Weather Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Quite a probable evolution. A see-saw heights sometimes to the west then pulled SW and to the south then back west again... and more reload from the NW - could be the pattern for December.. those wanting cold at Christmas will hope the dice falls with the colder high to the west pattern. 

[Eagle Eye]

I'll order this and two shots of Arctic blasts please

[Ali1977]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

I'll order this and two shots of Arctic blasts please

Pretty much zero ENS support, so let’s see what the ECM does. If that doesn’t support then I’ll hold back any excitement- great to see that GFS Op though, a decent and lengthy freeze I’d say!! 

[Bradley in Kent]

On 08/11/2021 at 17:29, Ed Stone said:

Things are indeed starting to get a bit more exciting now. We mightn't see very much snow down here in the SE, but the parameters look very good for some deep convection off the still-warm North Sea?

    

Sea temps in the North Sea are in the 12c - 14c mark, with 2m temps around 9c - 12c. With 850s in the -5c to -8c range you'd certainly get some bubbling going on if ever that chart verified! (factoring in a small drop by then) The coast would get rain showers but inland you'd see more wintriness mixed in. Plus that snow line wouldn't be that high. Long way to go though, and to be honest I'd rather wait a bit longer for those sea temps to fall a bit more  

[sheikhy]

Okay scrap what i said!!the control is a barn stormer!!!its just 24 hours later than the op!!!!

[bluearmy]

Back end of the gefs builds an upper ridge up into e greeny and beyond to meet one over kamkatchka headed in from the pacific - can we split the tpv from both sides this early in the season ??

 

[swfc]

PV seems a bit lost tbh

[sheikhy]

Ukmo odd one out very early on with the flatter sinking high option!!ecm way more amplified to the east with a very strong norwegian/scandi high!!perfectly placed just a shame there no cold uppers!!