model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Actually it’s going to go straight to an easterly without the northerly portion. Completely doolally for that timescale but you’ve got to love the pub run!

It is, and as I mentioned within 1 day we pull in proper cold uppers - if it happens of course!! 

[January Snowstorm]

Extraordinary stuff this evening.

Deep cold into mainland Europe by 8/9 days. Even if we don't tap into it still quite epic to see this so early in Winter!

[Griff]

Stand corrected..  

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It does ?  For next week?? are you sure ??

Well going in that direction sorry!!infact looks even better than the ecm46 for next week!!everything going north west even quicker on gfs!!

[swfc]

I think I preferred the 12z gfs tbh. Nothing wrong with the pub run bou it imo isn't as blocky to the northern Atlantic and west of greenland esp

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is just dandy...Those Heights seem to be getting a propping up from Low Pressure to the South of it...The vortex is completely shunted towards the Eastern side,which would surely aid the formation of significant cold developing towards our NE/E...just where we would want it!

Again the very abnormal Year continues...

That's enough from me tonight as too much excitement at this stage of the evening very often Leads to bed wetting episodes

Let's hope the pub run does not become a major hang over come the 0z op run..but..like many have said...things look to be shaping up rather quite well.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think I preferred the 12z gfs tbh. Nothing wrong with the pub run bou it imo isn't as blocky to the northern Atlantic and west of greenland esp

I think it’ll reload with heights pushing up to the West of Greenland - we shall see!! 
The Labrador LP isn’t able to move East which makes me think retrogression is about to happen!!

The 12z was epic though 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

That will feel freezing, and I love it

[Mike Poole]

Just now, swfc said:

I think I preferred the 12z gfs tbh. Nothing wrong with the pub run bou it imo isn't as blocky to the northern Atlantic and west of greenland esp

I think I rate the earlier part of any run over the later stages, the early part is what makes the 18z spectacular.  Where we go from there is massively uncertain and open to questions, but if that block takes hold, then, wow!  I think it will be this time tomorrow before we know if this is a goer or not, so don’t worry if the 0z pours warm water on it!

[swfc]

On 08/11/2021 at 22:43, Mike Poole said:

I think I rate the earlier part of any run over the later stages, the early part is what makes the 18z spectacular.  Where we go from there is massively uncertain and open to questions, but if that block takes hold, then, wow!  I think it will be this time tomorrow before we know if this is a goer or not, so don’t worry if the 0z pours warm water on it!

I'd agree Mike. It's earlier so it should be more accurate. The 18z to me looks like it's going for a high over UK. The 12z was better to the nnw. All irrelivent I guess but we have been laudering charts at 300 hrs

[Methuselah]

The pub run's good, but not as good as earlier runs. Still decidedly cold, though. So anything can happen. A drop of the 'white stuff' is clearly a possibility?

    

Night all!

[minus10]

Its quite amazing to see the vortex progged to be so far east on this run....

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by minus10

[Ali1977]

Epic cold being reloaded but not sure if we’d tap into it with the LP anchored over us, move it 500 miles NW then it would. JFF this late on in the run!!

[swfc]

And now in deep FI pub run is building to the nnw

[Mike Poole]

Just now, minus10 said:

Its quite amazing to see the vortex progged to be so far east....

 

As I alluded to earlier, I think that the best way to make sense of the current patterns going into winter, is to assume that a SSW has already happened.  

It is interesting watching the models sometimes, in that you have an instinct that a certain thing might happen, and then watch it happen in the models - for me, we are there now…watching it unfold…maybe…GFS leading the pack re heights into Greenland.  Fascinating times!!

[swfc]

On 08/11/2021 at 22:54, Ali1977 said:

Epic cold being reloaded but not sure if we’d tap into it with the LP anchored over us, move it 500 miles NW then it would. JFF this late on in the run!!

Low pressure over us Ali??? 

[Ali1977]

Just now, swfc said:

Low pressure over us Ali??? 

HP sorry - getting a little too excited

[Ali1977]

Much better means forecast for later Nov, this GFS run is just the starter before the main

[northwestsnow]

The ec mean for the last week in November is really good.

Certainly for @jules216

[Bradley in Kent]

Wow that really got the Netweather servers going! Great content as ever and very informative explanations

So it seems the first cold chase of the winter is on! Obviously there's a long way to go and reality is always watered down. However, we must not forget it's only early November (mad eh?) and 10 times better than having a raging Atlantic and Euro High since getting out of such setup is like being promoted from the championship, I.e. very difficult!

I'll go to bed though mentally prepped to see that in tomorrow's outputs mind!

All the best

[swfc]

For what it's worth I think one of the key factors is keeping the pressure high to the nnw and off the esb. The PV is then dragged screaming into the north and east of Europe. The insipid lower Heighths crept in on the 18z gfs and it flattened the run. The fact the PV is not showing its hand atm is a bonus and long may it do so. Decent outlook and the projected forecasts going to ends month nay bad, all caveats etc. Can't complain for november and there's no sign of uncle bartlett

Edited November 8, 2021 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all

i am a bit hesitant on this northerly plunge happening viewing the latest 18z op run from the gfs and now the control is going the same way,...clearly the op and control where cold outliers on the 12z plus the ECM was a bit meh

the anomalies show this with a glancing blow just missing the UK with most of the plunge going into Scandi but it will still be a lot cooler of late but i think it will be dryer too,winds WNW at first then NW in the ext

The MLO also is not amplified enough to get that holy grail of a ridge into Greenland...

still early days yet but at least mainland Europe will be cooling down

P.S,lets hope for a swing in the colder direction in days to come but i just cannot see it at the moment,...sorry.

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Met4Cast]

On 08/11/2021 at 23:28, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all

i am a bit hesitant on this northerly plunge happening viewing the latest 18z op run from the gfs and now the control is going the same way,...clearly the op and control where cold outliers on the 12z plus the ECM was a bit meh

the anomalies show this with a glancing blow just missing the UK with most of the plunge going into Scandi but it will still be a lot cooler of late but i think it will be dryer too,winds WNW at first then NW in the ext

The MLO also is not amplified enough to get that holy grail of a ridge into Greenland...

still early days yet but at least mainland Europe will be cooling down

P.S,lets hope for a swing in the colder direction in days to come but i just cannot see it at the moment,...sorry.

 

I agree - Tweeted a couple of days ago that the GFS is likely over-amplifying in response to the emerging MJO signal, the ensembles being lower resolution are likely less impacted by that, hence the Det run being consistently a cold outlier or at best one of the coldest members. 

Great looking charts in FI but that's all it is at the moment, little evidence to suggest anything out of the ordinary is on it's way.  Cooler yes, perhaps frosty and slightly below average, but i'd be surprised to see the depth of cold some det runs are suggesting.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Early Christmas present from the GFS op this morning- 

Very cold and snowy run into FI

[LetItSnow!]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Early Christmas present from the GFS op this morning- 

Very cold and snowy run into FI

Interesting to see that the GFS is also going for a proper cold blast across Canada and much of the US at the same time. After a mild autumn perhaps a bitter taste of winter setting in... "more runs needed"!