model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Ali1977]

GFS is a belter AGAIN. Day 10 has a snowy cold Northerly, lovely!!  

Control follows too, GEM doesn’t. Need the ECM to follow

Edited November 9, 2021 by Ali1977

[DavidS]

Brilliant from the GFS 00z. Not often you get overnight upgrades. As ever, lots of key moments in the run, but the formation of the famous Azores Low looks important to me. 

This helps support the push of heights up the west side of Greenland 

After which the Northerly gets going

Edited November 9, 2021 by DavidS

[Ali1977]

ECM not following, no WAA up the East of Canada

[jules216]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The ec mean for the last week in November is really good.

Certainly for @jules216

Why you believe anything past 96hrs if we arrive every year and from Greeny high we end up with Euro high, just look at UKMo and EC 0Z, dejavuz,these fancy posts of GFS showing 2010 style blocking are not to be believed.

[DavidS]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM not following, no WAA up the East of Canada

Yes, both ECM and GEM not having it. Would like to think the GFS has it right, but my limited experience says it probably won’t be.

[Ali1977]

GFS and Control vs ECM and GEM, it’s never good to follow those showing cold so I’ll sit on the fence with any guesses!!

 

To be fair I think the ECM would get better beyond day 10 looking at the chart  with weakening of the PV around Greenland !! 

[DavidS]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS and Control vs ECM and GEM, it’s never good to follow those showing cold so I’ll sit on the fence with any guesses!!

 

To be fair I think the ECM would get better beyond day 10 looking at the chart  with weakening of the PV around Greenland !! 

Yes agreed, the ECM looks like it might present another chance past Day 10.

I would expect the GFS to back down on the 6z, as lots of things have to happen just right to build the ridge.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS t240

vs ECM t240

 

big difference in outcome.  Knowing the UK and what we tend to experience one would go with ECM.  It’s only day ten and GFS building momentum…nice to watch this pan out…but more ‘towards’ ECM for me at this stage

 

BFTP

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Eagle Eye]

If it's going to happen
It's going to happen very quickly
The PV to have an initial weak split bringing snow as far south over here as the extreme south west before moving through France as the high topples to the south east allowing a stronger split PV to follow behind it. This is all theoretical of course as it is far out but getting strong signals recently from the GFS of some movement from the northeast as the Jet Stream pushes south of Britian allowing that low to just sit there. Then another signal recently of the high toppling south east and then it's back to the guessing game where you have a 1% chance of getting it right.

Personally if that high topples I could see a splitting PV which I'm pretty sure could have happened in 2010 (can't access the archives from Meteociel on my laptop right now)

A lot at stake here, lots of different possibilities this is just one of many

[sheikhy]

7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all

i am a bit hesitant on this northerly plunge happening viewing the latest 18z op run from the gfs and now the control is going the same way,...clearly the op and control where cold outliers on the 12z plus the ECM was a bit meh

the anomalies show this with a glancing blow just missing the UK with most of the plunge going into Scandi but it will still be a lot cooler of late but i think it will be dryer too,winds WNW at first then NW in the ext

The MLO also is not amplified enough to get that holy grail of a ridge into Greenland...

still early days yet but at least mainland Europe will be cooling down

P.S,lets hope for a swing in the colder direction in days to come but i just cannot see it at the moment,...sorry.

 

They have been wrong before mate!!not sayin they are this time but you never know!ecm having none of it this morning but gfs is incredible!!whose gona be right?!!im siding with ecm!

[SLEETY]

Nearly fell off my chair when I saw the gfs run this morning and nearly threw my chair out the window when viewing the ECM run this morning, such is the huge difference between them. 

 

One model has this hopelessly wrong regarding turning cold or just Meh. 

[nick sussex]

What drama !

The GFS ops for the last 3 runs have developed that northerly . The ECM not interested although it does finally remove those deeper low heights from Greenland day ten .

The ECM is an improvement from last night in the latter stages so although not the fun and games of the GFS it’s not a case of all or nothing .

Ironically it’s a bit of a role reversal as in recent winters the ECM has often over amplified the upstream pattern in its latter stages against the other other models .

 

 

[sheikhy]

Just viewed the models and there are huge differences as early as 72 hours!!!its crazy!!ecm is a middle ground with that troughy feature runninng into the continent between 72 and 96 hours!!!just imagine if ecm joins gfs later!!gona go through the roof in here❄!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Nearly fell off my chair when I saw the gfs run this morning and nearly threw my chair out the window when viewing the ECM run this morning, such is the huge difference between them. 

 

One model has this hopelessly wrong regarding turning cold or just Meh. 

Has the Ecm ever verified at day 10?…nope, has the GFS ever verified at day 10?….nope…conclusion…more runs needed!  

[Notty]

19 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Yes agreed, the ECM looks like it might present another chance past Day 10.

I would expect the GFS to back down on the 6z, as lots of things have to happen just right to build the ridge.

In my experience the GFS is often good at sniffing out a pattern change a couple of weeks into the future only to drop it and pick it up again after a week or so.

[Weather vane]

The slightly more amplified situation around South Greenland 7 days out seems to be a key factor in preventing the NA hp from retrogressing north in GEM and ECM. If a little more slackness could build off eastern Canada at that timeframe, then we might be in business. 

[Day 10]

On 09/11/2021 at 07:29, Notty said:

In my experience the GFS is often good at sniffing out a pattern change a couple of weeks into the future only to drop it and pick it up again after a week or so.

I have been following the GFS this year since the beginning of the month, it definitely has an air of 2010 about it which I posted in the regional on the 1st.

I agree with you, it has been toying with a similar pattern on & off for a week or two.

One example here from the 1st compared with the latest run, different days, but you get the idea.

[Howie]

Let's be honest, the ecm is much more likely correct than the gfs. We've all been here before. I wish the gfs could be right but once the ecm starts to disagree...

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all

i am a bit hesitant on this northerly plunge happening viewing the latest 18z op run from the gfs and now the control is going the same way,...clearly the op and control where cold outliers on the 12z plus the ECM was a bit meh

the anomalies show this with a glancing blow just missing the UK with most of the plunge going into Scandi but it will still be a lot cooler of late but i think it will be dryer too,winds WNW at first then NW in the ext

The MLO also is not amplified enough to get that holy grail of a ridge into Greenland...

still early days yet but at least mainland Europe will be cooling down

P.S,lets hope for a swing in the colder direction in days to come but i just cannot see it at the moment,...sorry.

Overnight ens runs have geps and eps shunting the mean trough a little further east later week 2. None of the means are as amplified as the gfs op but given timing issues on the members, that’s no surprise.  You would think that the gfs is too sharp and west on this whereas the other ops are too flat.  A middle ground will not deliver anything particularly wintry to us. But that’s ok……for now!  Still encouraging 

 

[ICE COLD]

Yes ECM and others having none of the wonder charts from the gfs , but it may just be a timing issue ? The gfs could be bringing the pattern change in a tad early ( or it’s leading us up that famous garden path) . Time will tell . 
 

GFS is a stonker . 

[jules216]

Largest EPS cluster has the Euro high back, almost the oposite of what you expect from La Nina forcing, I thought with atmosphere being fully coupled with La Nina and tropical forcing in Maritimes surely Euro high is the most oposite outcome of what you expect and total turn around against 46d from last night. I said it in posts in winter thread that if November ends with most of the days under Euro high then all the analogs prior to 2013 can be binned

[damianslaw]

Too much divergence between the models at present to put any faith in any of them. Many odd outputs, all very messy. Reliable timeframe is exceptionally short, 72 hrs tops I say!

[Howie]

6 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Largest EPS cluster has the Euro high back, almost the oposite of what you expect from La Nina forcing, I thought with atmosphere being fully coupled with La Nina and tropical forcing in Maritimes surely Euro high is the most oposite outcome of what you expect and total turn around against 46d from last night. I said it in posts in winter thread that if November ends with most of the days under Euro high then all the analogs prior to 2013 can be binned

Not good at all

[Bradley in Kent]

Morning all, looking at the GFS 0z it seems we (as in coldies) need 3 things to go right: LP at day 3 to migrate Northwestwars allowing heights behind to link up with the heights over here. Then at day 5 we need that little Azores Low to keep the HP in shape on it's south side, then at day 7 or so conditions to remain slack on the Eastern Seaboard to allow heights to build towards Greenland.

To be very honest, I can't see all 3 things happening! One can only hope!

[Weather vane]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes ECM and others having none of the wonder charts from the gfs , but it may just be a timing issue ? The gfs could be bringing the pattern change in a tad early ( or it’s leading us up that famous garden path) . Time will tell . 
 

GFS is a stonker . 

Agree. Could be a timing thing. I feel its very small margins between the greenland high vs not and a flatter jet. I don't think it will take very much for other models to go the way of GFS, though a betting man would likely put their money on ECM/GEM. Nonetheless, I give the GFS a decent shot at winning out. Let's hope