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Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

Anthony Burden

By Anthony Burden
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

You know things are bad when members post charts from November 1978, 1981, 2009 etc  

The point however is a good one, mild charts in November are not an indication of a mild winter, I worry more when we get a mid November cold snap like 1988.

Plenty of time for change and I stick by my forecast of weak La Nina induced cold December.

Andy

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

You know things are bad when members post charts from November 1978, 1981, 2009 etc  

The point however is a good one, mild charts in November are not an indication of a mild winter, I worry more when we get a mid November cold snap like 1988.

Plenty of time for change and I stick by my forecast of weak La Nina induced cold December.

Andy

One weather lore saying very apt for November 1988 was the following ' Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter be slush and muck'!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Pub run out to T102: here’s why I think it will be a better run than the 12, amplification of upstream features that might aid WAA into Greenland:

Here v the 12z:

C4048CBC-3CCC-4C7A-85DB-AC93072B9DF0.thumb.jpeg.0652e812b582203e8bdf2082d6ab8dc5.jpeg0AD359EF-DBD0-4DAF-8C8C-A0C44B724D63.thumb.png.0197c8f6d90903cbaa5cc0e83d528a24.png

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Model discussion only please.. for future charts.

As the models start to churn out interesting winter synoptics, this thread will become busy, from posters to lurkers, so in order to keep it tidy, please use the appropriate threads for anything other than model discussion.

Anything regarding general winter chat, or past synoptics, please post here:

Thank you. ❄️ ☃️ 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

You know the 18z gfs is rank on here!!!. Either gfs is in line with its counterparts or its having a wobble. Not much sign of any snorters this evening

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

I'm probably the only one enjoying the drama of the recent model output. 

Who knows what might be brewing next, Greenland way... You never know... 

gfsnh-0-234.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm probably the only one enjoying the drama of the recent model output. 

Who knows what might be brewing next, Greenland way... You never know... 

gfsnh-0-234.png

Yes Griff and a split PV incoming ☺️

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes Griff and a split PV incoming ☺️

Well never say never, but not flat as a pancake, some amplification in the never never 

gfsnh-0-264.png

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

What a difference 24 hrs makes.. this time yesterday the thread was alive with comments on the 18z. Tonight tumbleweed.. alas it is still going with some amplification but later than previously and not as extreme. Indeed I'd say it is a very plausible evolution indeed more so than many a recent GFS run. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What a difference 24 hrs makes.. this time yesterday the thread was alive with comments on the 18z. Tonight tumbleweed.. alas it is still going with some amplification but later than previously and not as extreme. Indeed I'd say it is a very plausible evolution indeed more so than many a recent GFS run. 

Yes, even supported by jma...  

JN264-21.gif

gfsnh-0-264 (1).png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
On 09/11/2021 at 21:24, damianslaw said:

November 2009 another great example, one of the mildest and wettest on records, long fetch south westerlies, look what happened in December. Not saying we will see a 2009/2010, just worth noting how what may seem entrenched spells can suddenly flip.

The point I was making earlier. Nothing becomes entrenched in November. It's one of those months, like May, that do not set the tone for the coming season. May 2018- set the tone for June and 2/3 of July that summer but even that ran out of puff by August. Just as November 2010 set the tone for December but again, ran out of puff by January. 

Very rare to see a pattern entrench to last the full length of the following season.

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Tom Clarke Rookie

Tom Clarke

Posted
  • Location: Burton on Trent
  • Location: Burton on Trent
Posted
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The point I was making earlier. Nothing becomes entrenched in November. It's one of those months, like May, that do not set the tone for the coming season. May 2018- set the tone for June and 2/3 of July that summer but even that ran out of puff by August. Just as November 2010 set the tone for December but again, ran out of puff by January. 

Very rare to see a pattern entrench to last the full length of the following season.

I think Nov 2015 was pretty mild and so were the following months. The worry for winter weather fans is that the indications were for the early part of the winter to have the best potential, with Jan/Feb potentially exceptionally mild. The possibility is there that if the remainder of Nov is mild which now looks very likely and Dec follows on, we will see records broken.

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Climate Man Seasoned

Climate Man

Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Posted
51 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

I think Nov 2015 was pretty mild and so were the following months. The worry for winter weather fans is that the indications were for the early part of the winter to have the best potential, with Jan/Feb potentially exceptionally mild. The possibility is there that if the remainder of Nov is mild which now looks very likely and Dec follows on, we will see records broken.

So the early part was forecast to have cold potential and it is already wrong?(too early to tell anyway as not winter for 3 weeks) But the forecast for even further ahead in January and February will be correct .......

 

 

 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

P18 please! ❄️  

61886356-FF6E-4B14-A109-4E31E9BFFF72.thumb.png.0163f944c498ef64dcd744d54bfa937c.png91F36C11-A648-496A-9CD8-162A69C6BED0.thumb.png.9671350652b4f19b52c2287655e658a4.pngB7160A15-BA94-4838-88B8-D3940264C7FA.thumb.png.df1605410f082ada3c7ba08d710eda32.png

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Not too much for coldies in the charts this morning unfortunately. I guess reading the long range METO forecast, and with some other signals pointing to a colder late Nov the flip cold in 10-15 days is still very possible.  
I think the GEFS do have more blocking options on the latest run, so keep an eye on some downward trending there rather than with the Op is probably wise - the FI GEFS mean does look like euro heights are being moved away (the greens into the Med now) 
Thankfully we still have about 150 days of snow chasing ahead

05135DE7-6778-4B1F-97DE-4E5541197C06.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 you know things are bad when Jon Snow is posting individual ensembles from t+300 again!

You’re very welcome! …it’s certainly an incredible GEFS 0z member for sure!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

The first bout of being led up the garden path for this winter then....as usual the models look like they have completely over amplified the pattern, only for it to go flat as a pancake nearer the time.

image.thumb.png.42379673fdbb3dda529eae913491836d.pngimage.thumb.png.a552b6c86d709d2e14eb607e9bb5096d.pngimage.thumb.png.7b86051c36b29912ed28559f10b681a5.png

All completely vanished. Ah well, it's not even winter yet anyway!

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

I know one shouldn't trust charts at 7 days plus but all I would say is that the very far reaches of the gfs 0z tie in very well with the meto longer term update for late Nov early Dec.

As ever we shall see.

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Weather vane Contributor

Weather vane

Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
Posted (edited)

At 168hr, Icon keen on a more southerly and SW incursion of the Icelandic low, which pushes the pesky Atlantic hp westerly. Would be a good development. Other models not in line with this however.

GEMOPEU00_168_1.png

GFSOPEU00_168_1.png

ICOOPEU00_168_1.png

ECMOPEU00_168_1-1.png

Edited by Weather vane
Added a bit more info.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The first bout of being led up the garden path for this winter then....as usual the models look like they have completely over amplified the pattern, only for it to go flat as a pancake nearer the time.

image.thumb.png.42379673fdbb3dda529eae913491836d.pngimage.thumb.png.a552b6c86d709d2e14eb607e9bb5096d.pngimage.thumb.png.7b86051c36b29912ed28559f10b681a5.pnggfs

All completely vanished. Ah well, it's not even winter yet anyway!

To be fair both the gfs/ecm still have some impressive amplification next week. with alot of energy swanning around in the Atlantic. Just that the amplification is not occurring where everyone wanted it to be, which resulted in one rogue gfs run having everyone hyperventilating. At this rate the defibrillator is going to busy over the coming months

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-7107200.thumb.png.e6a8c0f5786b9965e86c111e6c167d07.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-7107200.thumb.png.2561ef07d28eb925a2011fd5e76933e2.png

Edited by knocker
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Using the 500 mb anomaly charts, what do they suggest?

Little suggestion on either chart, or previous runs of any cold outbreak out to 10 days, the 8-14 Noaa suggests a slight contour ridge along with the +ve heights over and just west of Ireland, so a spell of quiet weather developing through the 6-14 day period IF the Ec/Noaa charts are correct. Noaa is not often wide of the mark.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
10 hours ago, Griff said:

I'm probably the only one enjoying the drama of the recent model output. 

Who knows what might be brewing next, Greenland way... You never know... 

gfsnh-0-234.png

I enjoy the chase every year, Griff. And, maybe, just maybe, far into the future, NWMs will learn how to finesse accurate long-range forecasts out of chaos? I'm nae holding my breath on that one, though.

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