model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[E17boy]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And, here (just to bring us all back down to Earth) is the Met Office's take on the models:

 

Hi Peeps

Well the Mets’s forecast certainly sums up what we are in for in the next week or so .

But a very interesting thing to note here which my or may not be anything to do with what our weather does in the weeks ahead but I am just speculating for now. This weekend we have got a brief easterly being forecast more specially for the south, and this is thanks to high pressure in Scandinavia. Now at times when we have had our past cold spells, we have initially got a tentative baby taster to what might be coming later. This easterly this weekend could it be a tentative sample iof what might happen later in the season. By all means this may be completely on its own but as mentioned sometimes in the past before the real cold easterlies we have had tentative mini easterlies . Who knows but I am just speculating.

To conclude though no real sign of any wintry weather heading our way for another 10 days yet. Yes slightly colder air this weekend but that is nothing to what we are waiting for not yet at least.

oh Siberian temperatures are now dropping Moscow coming out at minus 2 next week and the Siberian Federal District at minus 21. I am just keeping an eye as to what is happening further east as well.

have a great evening all

regards 

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, here (just to bring us all back down to Earth) is the Met Office's take on the models:

 

Awful mis-use of a meteorological term: 3 times in his first sentences he used the term 'intensify' for a deepening low. I hope his boss does not see his 10 day prediction using that term.

Lows deepen and highs intensify!

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Awful mis-use of a meteorological term: 3 times in his first sentences he used the term 'intensify' for a deepening low. I hope his boss does not see his 10 day prediction using that term.

Lows deepen and highs intensify!

I'm sure I grew up with references to 'intense' depressions, John? So, was the 1987 'hurricane' the real thing, or was it merely a very intense depression. Did it not intensify?

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Ali1977]

Day 8 to day 10 mean, that’s some change with the HP dissipating in the Med. I expect some crazy FI charts from the GEFS on this run, with a big increase in blocking !! I’d even go as far as saying the Northerly is still poss late next week!

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ali1977

[damianslaw]

Short term quite an interesting ser up with low pressure tracking through the UK. Heights then build rapidly behind it and advect to scandi pulling in what looks like a cloudy fairly mild easterly. 

Thereafter we have the azores high bulging to our SW keeping the jet to our north and a more westerly flow develops. Nothing overly wet in the forecast and staying mild.

Longer term - signs perhaps the scandi trough will become the dominant feature with PV shifted to the Russian side. GfS 12z deepens and sharpens it and with little energy off the eastern USA seaboard as has been the case for months and months..  it kicks the azores high back west and allows for a colder incursion from the NW. This is a very plausible direction of travel. The atmosphere remains in the same base state which is amplified..

[Ali1977]

Day 11 ENS , not deep deep FI. Lots of blocking back on the cards - and a good Op!! 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

Ecm more amplified at 144 hours or is it just me?!!

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm more amplified at 144 hours or is it just me?!!

Yep, definitely better for amplification

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ali1977

[swfc]

Not sure what's going on in the USA on ec nhp

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

In short, no notable cold spell in the second half of November, there never was unless you were only looking at the GFS Det.

You may, of course, prove to be correct: but there is more evidence than just the GFS op run suggesting a colder than average pattern towards the end of November. "Notable"? Depends on your parameters but the long wave pattern suggests a NW influence at worst.

Meanwhile the MJO forecast is uncertain. ECM currently sees a very weak signal, but the CPC acknowledge that some kind of progression into the western Pacific is likely, and the constructed analog forecast used by incorporating data from the passage of the MJO over the last 6 months suggests a more forceful evolution. But we all know strong MJO signatures through to the west pacific are tough during a Nina and so we will need to watch and wait. However phase progression, whether weak or not, is edging into the west Pacific and that supports blocking in our sector at least to some degree.

I doubt we will see anything spectacular in the second half of November, but I do think temps will dip slightly below average and there is a chance that early December might see a Greenland High. If weather watching/hoping is about a balance of probability approach then the start of this season has a better chance than many going before it of being on the chilly side. I'm not going to be drawn yet on chances of genuine cold. Been "burned" too often by an over reading of signals at long range.

[Ali1977]

T216 from this mornings run vs T192 from this evening - yes 12 hours diff so expect some changes , but this looks considerably better for colder shot opportunities 

 

Voilà 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ali1977

[Cambrian]

Yes, the ECM and GEM 12z operational runs are flipping back to a northerly spell around day 10.

 

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T216 from this mornings run vs T192 from this evening - yes 12 hours diff so expect some changes , but this looks considerably better for colder shot opportunities 

 

Voilà 

Just as i thought more amplified!!you could tell it was gona be a better run way earlier on!!also there is no organised vortex like on the 00z!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Yes, the ECM and GEM 12z operational runs are flipping back to a northerly spell around day 10.

 

Yep, and that’s when the GFS picks up the Northerly , maybe a day begins the other. It’s unanimous, guaranteed northerly days 10-11 onwards

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure I grew up with references to 'intense' depressions, John? So, was the 1987 'hurricane' the real thing, or was it merely a very intense depression. Did it not intensify?

yep many times that phrase as been used  to be fair ive seen it used mainly in the USA  the tinternet is littered with such phrases

example

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution  by the AMS

Edited November 10, 2021 by weirpig

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,perhaps the met office 15th to the 24th extended outlook answers the questions 

we are looking for.starting on the cold side followed by a pick up of temperatures,then returning 

back downwards at the latter end of the time frame.Perhaps ECM ten day chart and GFS 264 hrs 

chart holding the clue.Let’s keep are fingers crossed that they are on to something.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly...its great that Netweather have added the model thread to an app...so much easier to jump straight back in..well done

And secondly....I've got a feeling this coming Winter will leave many of the so called experts scratching there heads with frustration! The NH looks all over the place too me...The models are throwing out wildly fluctuating output every 24hrs right now! So what chance have we got with trying to work out the travel of play beyond a week!

For me all options are on the table for the scope of of plenty of cold opportunities moving forward...it looks far from Zonal....so any of the experts who went for a mild and wet winter....well good luck to you....yes its the climatology normal for these parts of the Globe..but it looks far more complicated again this year,and we seem very open to something significant at some point!

The ens throw all kinds of solutions into the mix,and there seems to be plenty of Blocking on numerous ones.

Snow by Xmas day and trust me I will be dancing in it.

[stodge]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

I doubt we will see anything spectacular in the second half of November, but I do think temps will dip slightly below average and there is a chance that early December might see a Greenland High. If weather watching/hoping is about a balance of probability approach then the start of this season has a better chance than many going before it of being on the chilly side. I'm not going to be drawn yet on chances of genuine cold. Been "burned" too often by an over reading of signals at long range.

I'm also wondering if this winter is going to be persistently chilly - never stunning cold but plenty of cool/chilly spells.

Perhaps we all look for those remarkable 7-10 days out of 90 and forget the other 80-83. Indeed, to get one good month (Dec 2010) means forgetting the other two which were unremarkable.

Frequent spells of slightly below average temperatures might not be remarkable and indeed the whole winter would be written off by many but in their own way would be interesting. An extended period for example of negative alignment would bring chilly and cold conditions especially to north and east but not the snowfest to which many on here aspire.

This isn't a winter forecast by any stretch - just an observation of some of the possibilities.

[booferking]

Met Éireann signs up for weather forecasting supercomputer

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Built by Hewlett Packard Enterprise, it aims to improve short-term weather forecasting.

Hopefully when this bad boy is up in running it's picking up long fetched Northerly's and beastlies on point from day 10 hopefully stop the roller coaster of emotion in here

Edited November 10, 2021 by booferking

[Griff]

2 hours ago, Cambrian said:

Yes, the ECM and GEM 12z operational runs are flipping back to a northerly spell around day 10.

 

Good spot, was about to post something similar

 

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Firstly...its great that Netweather have added the model thread to an app...so much easier to jump straight back in..well done

And secondly....I've got a feeling this coming Winter will leave many of the so called experts scratching there heads with frustration! The NH looks all over the place too me...The models are throwing out wildly fluctuating output every 24hrs right now! So what chance have we got with trying to work out the travel of play beyond a week!

For me all options are on the table for the scope of of plenty of cold opportunities moving forward...it looks far from Zonal....so any of the experts who went for a mild and wet winter....well good luck to you....yes its the climatology normal for these parts of the Globe..but it looks far more complicated again this year,and we seem very open to something significant at some point!

The ens throw all kinds of solutions into the mix,and there seems to be plenty of Blocking on numerous ones.

Snow by Xmas day and trust me I will be dancing in it.

Yes indeed! Seasonal forecasting didn't go so well last year, and it really hasn't been that wet and windy so far... We keep  

Edited November 10, 2021 by Griff

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, stodge said:

I'm also wondering if this winter is going to be persistently chilly - never stunning cold but plenty of cool/chilly spells.

Perhaps we all look for those remarkable 7-10 days out of 90 and forget the other 80-83. Indeed, to get one good month (Dec 2010) means forgetting the other two which were unremarkable.

Frequent spells of slightly below average temperatures might not be remarkable and indeed the whole winter would be written off by many but in their own way would be interesting. An extended period for example of negative alignment would bring chilly and cold conditions especially to north and east but not the snowfest to which many on here aspire.

This isn't a winter forecast by any stretch - just an observation of some of the possibilities.

One winter that was consistently chilly but never especially cold apart from one or two brief moments was 2005-2006. An exceptionally blocked winter lots of mid aglantic ridging but never gained enough foothold to the north until late Feb to produce anything notably wintry for any length of time. Mind late Feb to about 20 Mar was notably cold and wintry.. 

Sorry to go off topic talking about previous winters..  just commenting on how quiet the Atlantic was.. we look likely to start winter in similar vein..

[Northwest NI]

On 10/11/2021 at 19:29, MATTWOLVES said:

Firstly...its great that Netweather have added the model thread to an app...so much easier to jump straight back in..well done

And secondly....I've got a feeling this coming Winter will leave many of the so called experts scratching there heads with frustration! The NH looks all over the place too me...The models are throwing out wildly fluctuating output every 24hrs right now! So what chance have we got with trying to work out the travel of play beyond a week!

For me all options are on the table for the scope of of plenty of cold opportunities moving forward...it looks far from Zonal....so any of the experts who went for a mild and wet winter....well good luck to you....yes its the climatology normal for these parts of the Globe..but it looks far more complicated again this year,and we seem very open to something significant at some point!

The ens throw all kinds of solutions into the mix,and there seems to be plenty of Blocking on numerous ones.

Snow by Xmas day and trust me I will be dancing in it.

Where is this App you speak of, Matt?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Where is this App you speak of, Matt?

Netwx community,it came up for me yesterday and I just installed the app...so it saves to your home screen and enables you to jump right back into the thread without having to go through your normal search engine...hope this helps mate.

It came up for me yesterday when I was on the site randomly,so I just installed it...not sure if it's new,or been around for a while,but it's the first time that I had ever seen it before.

Edited November 10, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Netwx community,it came up for me yesterday and I just installed the app...so it saves to your home screen and enables you to jump right back into the thread without having to go through your normal search engine...hope this helps mate.

It came up for me yesterday when I was on the site randomly,so I just installed it...not sure if it's new,or been around for a while,but it's the first time that I had ever seen it before.

I was just about to suggest that you are sad, Matt. But, then I remembered that the Mad Thread is my Google default setting!

[Ali1977]

Quite strong heights over the high Arctic , it wouldn’t take much for Atlantic heights to join up!! 

 

It’s trying and there’s a lot of cold air up in north Scandy should we get a NE’ly!! 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Ali1977