model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Tonight's EC46 anomalies with a run up to Xmas..not had any chance to sum them up,so I will leave that to you guys..

Excellent post @Eagle Eye many thanks for that brilliant analysis  

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Tonight's EC46 anomalies with a run up to Xmas..not had any chance to sum them up,so I will leave that to you guys..

Excellent post @Eagle Eye many thanks for that brilliant analysis  

Not sure what to make of that!!seems like a downgrade in terms of greenland heights but now seems to upgrade the high and plonk it over the uk and then eventually transferring over to scandi with lows  going on a south east trajectory!!maybe plenty of frost and dry weather?!!defo not as good as the last update with low heights to the east not as far west?!!not sure what to make of it lol!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not sure what to make of that!!seems like a downgrade in terms of greenland heights but now seems to upgrade the high and plonk it over the uk and then eventually transferring over to scandi with lows  going on a south east trajectory!!maybe plenty of frost and dry weather?!!defo not as good as the last update with low heights to the east not as far west?!!not sure what to make of it lol!

Looks quite different from the previous runs mate regarding NW heights...but like you say it now picks up a signal for quite strong Heights around scandy later in the run. Let's not forget something as well....Greenland Heights may be the holy grail for winter,but any decent build of Heights around Scandinavia can also deliver the goods,if everything goes to plan. If we are gonna remain with a weak and meandering jet,those Heights perhaps having more time to stick!

Anyway it's all along way off and tbh at that range you will always have a bias for climatological normal to be accounted for.

Early days my man...keep the faith...

[Griff]

Been an interesting week for charts. 

No complaints here. 

[Eagle Eye]

On 11/11/2021 at 22:03, MATTWOLVES said:

Tonight's EC46 anomalies with a run up to Xmas..not had any chance to sum them up,so I will leave that to you guys..

Excellent post @Eagle Eye many thanks for that brilliant analysis  

Thanks, now been out into the stratosphere and pv thread, would have put it there but forgot it was there somehow 
About the anomalies, I for one  expected to see this happening within the near future, not enough change within the models to suggest a sudden downtrend in temps as of yet but that could all change very quickly as I suggested on my previous post in the PV thread about this feature circled here

[swfc]

Thought this run was going to go for it. Not bad profile and PV on is jollies. I'd give it a 6.5 snorter rating

[Methuselah]

Nae three bad at T+240:       

[swfc]

Gfs 18z  gives you  a cretinous shortwave near Iceland just to make it interesting

[Tom Clarke]

Looks like again the overriding theme is high pressure to the South, the mild outlook continues.

[joggs]

29 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

Looks like again the overriding theme is high pressure to the South, the mild outlook continues.

Charts?......

[knocker]

45 minutes ago, joggs said:

Charts?......

[Griff]

Even when ecm looks like it's going zonal it gives a wave good bye  

[mb018538]

High pressure lurking with intent again by next Friday - though it appears most of next week will be dry and quiet anyway (away from western hills/extremities). 

No signs of a full on zonal assault yet either, with the ensembles looking pretty dry.

 

[sheikhy]

Very dry ecm and gfs for my part of the world again!!!!oh and to add absolutely boring as well with no excitement on the horizon!!sure will change on the 12zs!!

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z operational is not what I wanted to see. But, given that a whole nine hours passed between posts, I'm nae all that surprised! Chins up, everyone, winter hasn't started yet!

    

    

    

And, now for the GEFS ensembles: the less said about them, the better? A truly scintillating start to the day's model-watching experience!

   

Edited November 12, 2021 by Ed Stone

[joggs]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 00Z operational is not what I wanted to see. But, given that a whole nine hours passed between posts, I'm nae all that surprised! Chins up, everyone, winter hasn't started yet!

    

    

    

And, now for the GEFS ensembles: the less said about them, the better? A truly scintillating start to the day's model-watching experience!

   

Yes. Flip flopping from day to day.

I'm quite enjoying the fact there's not that much rain in the forecast and temps will help with the heating bills.

[mb018538]

ECM 500mb update last night (for the next 3 weeks):

15/11 - 22/11


22/11- 29/11


29/11 - 6/12



Looks like a lot of troughing to our NW, which is usual for the time of year. High pressure further north than you'd probably expect for late November on these charts, but we will see how it pans out.

 

[Blessed Weather]

With the GFS Op and GEFS ensemble going for a negative AO throughout the second half of November, supportive of a meandering jet stream rather than any full-on zonal regime, at least there remains interest in how this will play out for the UK later this month. At this range it's highly unlikely the models have pinned down the detail of where the UK will sit with regard being to the warm or cold side of any buckle, but if the high pressure suggested by EC46 (see above post) sets up far enough to our west it will at least provide the potential for a colder incursion from the north.

Some snapshot -AO charts from GFS:

19th:  22nd:  27th:

GEFS ensemble AO forecast to 28th Nov courtesy of tweet from Matt Hugo:

Source: Twitter @MattHugo81

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS keen on high pressure to our south/ southwest keeping mild theme going in 

10 days time.ECM much more interesting in the 10 day,with Atlantic low pressure tracking over southern 

uk .Possibly followed more amplified high pressure ridging north perhaps,we shall see of course.

[Cambrian]

The 0z GEM operational run delivers an interesting sequence of charts from day 7 to day 10, bringing the UK and Ireland into a northerly by day 9, with a rinse and repeat look about it, possibly setting up a pattern of repeated shots from the north alternating with high pressure drifting over from the southwest.

168h / 192h / 216h / 240h

   

High nudging up from the south at 168h, but watch the little lows off Iceland moving east, high pushed back out west by the diving trough by 192h, in a good looking northerly flow by 216h, high encroaching again from the southwest by 240h, but another little low gathering to the west of Iceland ready for a potential reload. 
 

Interestingly, the 0z ECM op gets us to a similar position by 240h but by a different path.

Potentially good pattern to start seeing if looking out for a colder end to the month.

[Met4Cast]

The idea of a below average or even cold second half/final third to November does appear to be quickly withdrawing from the table in the last couple of days.

A slight fall in temperatures next week, perhaps dipping below average for a couple of days but overall the outlook is one of average conditions mostly, the already small signal for below average appears to have been dropped.

The latest MOGREPS run above highlights this well, slowly declining temperatures through next week before a slight uptick in the final third of the run. The GFS det runs can continue to flip flop from one extreme to another, but looking at the EPS/GEFS and indeed MOGREPS, it seems a notable cold spell is very unlikely barring substantial shifts in modelling.

[Methuselah]

Well, I can't find a single superlative suitable for today's 06Z operational run: it begins meh, turns awful and finally, it goes on and ends horrendous. But, on a note of optimism (from @Midlands Ice Age's updates), Northern Hemisphere ice and snow look better placed than they did, this time last year?

    

    

    

The only way is up!

[LRD]

For those of us that are still awake after scrolling through the GFS 6z, here is the ensemble spaghetti

It shows the 6z was near or at the top of the suite but it's not an outlier. No sign of cold, no sign of significant rain (in the south anyway), no sign of an autumn gale. No sign of anything you'd normally associate with autumn, really. Instead we will be getting the sometimes cloudy/sometimes sunny/dry/mild/tedious conditions we've experienced most of this "autumn"

But, having said that, in its own very boring way this weather is quite extreme in terms of how long this pattern has been dominant for. A mid latitude high (with some variations on that theme) has been the dominant feature of our weather patterns since halfway through July. Remarkable really

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

For those of us that are still awake after scrolling through the GFS 6z, here is the ensemble spaghetti

It shows the 6z was near or at the top of the suite but it's not an outlier. No sign of cold, no sign of significant rain (in the south anyway), no sign of an autumn gale. No sign of anything you'd normally associate with autumn, really. Instead we will be getting the sometimes cloudy/sometimes sunny/dry/mild/tedious conditions we've experienced most of this "autumn"

But, having said that, in its own very boring way this weather is quite extreme in terms of how long this pattern has been dominant for. A mid latitude high (with some variations on that theme) has been the dominant feature of our weather patterns since halfway through July. Remarkable really

We can see there is potential for the last week of November.

The issue here is shortwaves South of Greenland  are difficult to pin down and can derail a whole evolution as we have seen so many times.

On balance a colder spell looks possible later in the month, not probable.

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We can see there is potential for the last week of November.

The issue here is shortwaves South of Greenland  are difficult to pin down and can derail a whole evolution as we have seen so many times.

On balance a colder spell looks possible later in the month, not probable.

I don't disagree and the Met Office continue to see 'something' for the last week of this month onwards but 'something' is always beyond Day 10 and then when that time comes it's been pushed back to Day 10 again. A pattern change always seems to get dangled like a carrot to a donkey - certainly these last few months - but the carrot is always out of reach. Much like most winters to be fair

One point I'm not sure I do agree on though - shortwaves over south of Greenland will not derail things if the overall atmospheric/long wave pattern is conducive to northern blocking. Shortwaves don't dictate or derail the broader scale pattern as far as I'm aware. If the atmosphere isn't set up for northern blocking, then that's why these little lows can look like they are derailing things. But they aren't really - because there was, in reality, nothing to derail because broader scale conditions were just not set up to support colder patterns.