model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[SLEETY]

If the end of the 06z gfs verifies, it would make 2010 look tame lol. 

That depth of cold invading from the North would be notable in January, nevermind late November. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

Suspect ukmo and gfs will be very similar at 144 this evening..

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Suspect ukmo and gfs will be very similar at 144 this evening..

The UKMO shows  notable cold across parts of eastern europe   looks like quite a brutal start to season over there.

[Ali1977]

Another downgrade in NH blocking, you just watch the ECM flip cold by day 10 this evening

[sheikhy]

Gfs 12z flat flat and even more flatness!!inly good thing is we got high pressure over us most of the time!

[Howie]

Bang and the cold spell is gone

[steveinsussex]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another downgrade in NH blocking, you just watch the ECM flip cold by day 10 this evening

Day 10 you say?!

 

Groundhog Day….

[swfc]

You guys need to relax on these runs and chill. The next 48-144 hrs will show the way Forward 

 Be OK and december will show its hand keep the faith

 

[Nick F]

Fickle be each GFS run after day 7, but today the models are currently pointing towards Euro / mid-latitude high bore fest in the medium range - which suggests November could be a rather dry and benign month for southern Britain, maybe much of England and Wales. Jet stream seems to be tracking quite a way north for November.

Edited November 9, 2021 by Nick F

[northwestsnow]

Well it looks dry and cool , as time goes on the cooler the further South one heads...

What I personally don't want to see is a sinking Sceuro high with the PV becoming established to our NW in time for the start of Winter.

Hopefully not , nothing on last nights EC 46 to suggest a big +NAO...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational is looking good for the early December daffodils!  

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by jon snow

[rwtwm]

On 09/11/2021 at 12:45, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I'm thinking similar, the high pressure heading toward Greenland matches the phase 4 chart I posted yesterday think gfs just a bit quick with that setup I'm still looking to see if higher pressure can appear in Scandi like the other charts I posted suggest. And something worth remembering some members might not have been viewing the charts back in November 2010 but it was gfs and its ensembles that done similar to what we are seeing now picking up on that blocking before the other models, so not worth discounting altogether

That was a bewildering spell of model-watching. You could basically the cold spell down from 384 on the GFS. It's why I pay close attention in periods like this, when the op shows the same FI again and again. Even if those Ops are outliers to the ensemble.

[damianslaw]

GFS doing its usual tricks showing g vastly different affair long term. We had deep NE flow in recent runs with high to west. Now low to west. It has a habit of overreacting and showing one extreme to another.

I'm quite perplexed at the models presently all signals were for a NW flow and heights building to our west. Instead we have heights building to the NE and trend sinking this was not in the script we end up with a limpet mass area of heights to our SW, over the UK and SE. I can see the path to a NW flow eventually but perhaps a bit longer than anticipated. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by damianslaw

[SLEETY]

 Now watch Ecm show a much colder run after days of mild operationals, at the same time the gfs decides to turn out crud  , after days of cold runs, that's how it is in the weather model related world,keeps its exciting at least. 

[Bradley in Kent]

It's always easier for models to go towards the Euro High +NAO scenario probably because it's a common synoptic this time of year (especially nowadays) and there are way more avenues towards it. Unfortunately, many of these avenues are one-way as when such scenario arrives, we're stuck with it for weeks on end. Anyway, the GFS 12z hasn't happened yet, so I won't call off any December snow just yet!

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 12z operational is looking good for the early December daffodils!  

 

Meanwhile, I've put out an APB for the cold spell. GFS 12Z at T+240:

    

And, don't tell me it's where I left it!  

 

[The Northern Ramper]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, if a model produces a chart, then that chart is 'fair game'. And, after all, how many Day 10+ charts verify? Not many!

But, anyhow, here are today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles to pick over. Happy perusing!

    

Exactly, this isn’t the minus T48 model thread, we are allowed to discuss anything shown.

[LRD]

This morning's runs seem a long time ago...

Another limp, unexciting UK autumn could end up on as unexciting a note as the rest of this season's been. Can't even get a decent gale these days. The northwards movement of the Hadley Cell (inc Azores High, of course) continues to kill active weather in NW Europe. Still, it could change again

Edited November 9, 2021 by LRD

[sheikhy]

If anyone thought gfs was bad think again!!jheeez the ecm is ghastly!!!!what on earth has happened in the last 24 hours!!!output on the 12zs is as far away from the ecm46 as can be!!!need changes tomorrow or i fear the ec46 might change on thursday night!!keeping the faith fow now!!

[Cambrian]

After the excitement and flip-flopping, the big three 12z operational runs settle down and stretch the “reliable” back out to 168 hours with broad agreement on an East European high and an encroaching Iceland low for day 7. 

ECM / GFS / UKMO

  
 

And of course, “reliable” in this sense means that they are either all reliably broadly right or all reliably absolutely wrong! I can live with that.

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If anyone thought gfs was bad think again!!jheeez the ecm is ghastly!!!!what on earth has happened in the last 24 hours!!!output on the 12zs is as far away from the ecm46 as can be!!!need changes tomorrow or i fear the ec46 might change on thursday night!!keeping the faith fow now!!

Horrible 12z from all runs no getting away from it , let’s hope it’s a overreaction to something and the eye candy returns tomorrow 

[LRD]

Yes, it's just an individual frame from an op run but this...

...is incredible in an extremely boring way. High pressure from Kazakhstan, through Eastern, central and western/south-western Europe, into the Atlantic to the east coast of North America. Never mind being a wintry weather killer (not in winter yet, granted) but also a weather killer full stop - unless you like variable cloud, some drizzle and some sun and it all being non-descript

Edited November 9, 2021 by LRD

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Can I just say one thing here folks,and know disrespect to any of you lot who post some great stuff on here! 

Why do so many of you go from Euphoric too severely withdrawn over each and every model run? 

These model runs are constantly toying with different ideas and scenarios multiple times a day! Several great runs or bad runs dont mean a great deal when the timescales are beyond a week,and especially the 10 day period. And even if this attempt fails,let's please remind ourselves that its still not mid November!

The signals for Heights have been there from the EC46 for a few runs now...so just because current model output does not favour it,that's not to say the 46 will back down come Thursday!

Infact it may even strengthen the idea! There is very good reason the Exeter monthly outlook changes more often than my underwear!!  Yes its called major uncertainty for a small Island in a large North Western Hemisphere! Try not to give yourselves major Hangovers when these individual runs back down from certain outcomes. One swallow does not make a Summer...and one set of mild runs do not make a winter,especially being that the season is still 3 weeks away from being born.

Cool heads required all around for a 3 month long slog! But have petty one me who will probably be at it for 5 months

[Uncertainty]

@MATTWOLVESI would normally totally agree with you and you’re absolute correct with what you say…

but…

Just look at this absolute garbage 

GFS 324

GEM 240

ECM 240!!!

Three horrific long fetch atmospheric river events (which very much do verify) when the GFS said for days we’d get a screaming northerly.

We could end up more settled than the above but the last few days the early winter cold boat has started to sink. 

If the vortex does connect with the trop then I’m afraid the above is far more likely than a Greenland high and it’ll be back to checking river levels rather than lampposts. 

It’s amazing how often this happens, the over amplification bias across the modelling in the medium range happens time and time again. But to go from a Greenland high to a long fetched southwesterly with purple over Greenland really stings.

We have so much in our favour this winter, and many I’m still confident we’ll get one at some point, but a cold spell won’t  matter much to me if Cumbria gets sunk before that happens. The above charts indicate that, against all predictions, that is once again the spectre again, perhaps even next week

I realise this is a rant, and feel free to ignore it, but just about every prediction (EC46/JMA subseasonal/Low res GFS/ vast majority of pro/amateur forecasters(including myself) / most background forcing) have indicated this early winter period would be absent of such horrors. But alas, the strengthening SPV appears to be changing all that. 
 

Hopefully the models back off tomorrow. If I could shout at the models, tell them how cross I am with them then I would, but that’s a bit like shouting at a cup of Tea. And there’s just no point in that.
 

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Can I just say one thing here folks,and know disrespect to any of you lot who post some great stuff on here! 

Why do so many of you go from Euphoric too severely withdrawn over each and every model run? 

These model runs are constantly toying with different ideas and scenarios multiple times a day! Several great runs or bad runs dont mean a great deal when the timescales are beyond a week,and especially the 10 day period. And even if this attempt fails,let's please remind ourselves that its still not mid November!

The signals for Heights have been there from the EC46 for a few runs now...so just because current model output does not favour it,that's not to say the 46 will back down come Thursday!

Infact it may even strengthen the idea! There is very good reason the Exeter monthly outlook changes more often than my underwear!!  Yes its called major uncertainty for a small Island in a large North Western Hemisphere! Try not to give yourselves major Hangovers when these individual runs back down from certain outcomes. One swallow does not make a Summer...and one set of mild runs do not make a winter,especially being that the season is still 3 weeks away from being born.

Cool heads required all around for a 3 month long slog! But have petty one me who will probably be at it for 5 months

Didn't see too many 'euphoric' posts to be fair. I assume we all suspected what would happen. Philosophical rather than withdrawn too I'd suggest. Cold synoptics disappearing on model runs is such a regular occurrence down the years (especially as the climate continues to warm), I think people are immune to it! Bit like a football team that always gets beat - it loses its impact after a while!