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Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

Anthony Burden

By Anthony Burden
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

HP heading north - this is getting v v interesting

34461A71-CA79-455F-AC7E-D589592377CC.png

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Perhaps a flat and sluggish jet helping things along,also a little help of coming out of Solar minimum,which inturn is perhaps contributing towards this weak and meandering jet. Like @Mike Poole has stated very often,the pattern since last year as not really been shaken up at all this year! 

Tbh Shaky I'm feeling very optimistic...early days I know,but I just can't see a rampant and Wstly orientated sypnotic dominating the winter pattern!

Only time will tell,but the early signs look encouraging.

Last time we had such a sluggish jet for so long was 2010.

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

What really stands out for me this year is how much deep cold is available over the pole and to our Northeast!! Very early in the season to be seeing deep white uppers over Greenland as an example!

Is it possible that the lockdown has had a much more dramatic effect on Climate than realised! Anyway I wander but for now the pieces are looking very positive for an early taste of Winter!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

HP heading north - this is getting v v interesting

34461A71-CA79-455F-AC7E-D589592377CC.png

Yes Ali and take a look at the Vortex...its completely displaced from its usual home! 

That bunny seems to be hopping it along

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted (edited)

It seems to me that it could go either one of 2 ways (mainly)

We could see the PV being split and allowing for a low to overcome the Atlantic for at least a while (perhaps a toppling high afterwards could end the Atlantic's influence in our pattern for longer by allowing the PV to properly come through with less interruption I'm not sure, I don't pretend to be an expert) OR
The Atlantic flattening out and really annoying the members in the midlands and below by not allowing much flow from the north and having a flat flow across an area somewhere just north of the Midlands or on the Scottish border probably

As @Mike Poole says about the hangover from the SSW (which I find thoroughly interesting and will do some more reading of in the future) not allowing our atmosphere to reset properly, now could be the time where we see a major change in the pattern per se, forcing a reset which could also impact further on into the Winter.

In the meantime, never stop snow chasing.

Edited by Eagle Eye
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

What really stands out for me this year is how much deep cold is available over the pole and to our Northeast!! Very early in the season to be seeing deep white uppers over Greenland as an example!

Is it possible that the lockdown has had a much more dramatic effect on Climate than realised! Anyway I wander but for now the pieces are looking very positive for an early taste of Winter!

No lockdown in 2009/10.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
On 08/11/2021 at 22:19, blizzard81 said:

Thank you for the EC46 updates. I for one really appreciate it. Especially when it shows those types of charts lol . A positive vibe in here tonight. Casting aside burnt fingers from charts of old over the years - No wonder there is valid hope when we combine those ec46 charts with the extended gfs and ens. Certainly much reason to be optimistic tonight. 

Don't forget, they're freely available to view.  

 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

This could be a pub run cracker . It will have to be special tho to beat the 12z run . 

E4213A6B-0348-4F84-8BF2-B2D3C2BC6F66.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted (edited)

BOOM!!!

The last time I saw 1070 hPa into Greenland on GFS was 2010, and it was real:  T180:

9929FEDA-3F3A-4AAC-AB6F-69CE19D23404.thumb.png.8ce25b0e88b8956d79c8485b187aa60a.png

Lock and load!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

BOOM!!!

The last time I saw 1070 hPa into Greenland was 2010, and it was real:  T180:

9929FEDA-3F3A-4AAC-AB6F-69CE19D23404.thumb.png.8ce25b0e88b8956d79c8485b187aa60a.png

Lock and load!

Can this really appear at this stage, surely it can’t be a massive outlier at day 8!! If this is showing in the morning or on the ECM I expect some major rewording of the METO long range!! 
Epic cold heading into N Europe

821A89D5-E555-4C16-A244-1DDF7FBD22FB.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
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Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Many thanks for that. I didn't realise. Brilliant stuff!

Sounds like tonight's pun run should be pay per view, or only fans

gfsnh-0-192.png

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topo Enthusiast

topo

Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

BOOM!!!

The last time I saw 1070 hPa into Greenland on GFS was 2010, and it was real:  T180:

9929FEDA-3F3A-4AAC-AB6F-69CE19D23404.thumb.png.8ce25b0e88b8956d79c8485b187aa60a.png

Lock and load!

If I calculate correctly pressure is 1085 at the center! GFSOPEU18_180_1.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Any form of Easterly now and very quickly the U.K. will go very cold - getting deep cold into Europe is exactly what we need - rather than getting a perfect easterly that needs to last 3 days to start drawing in anything cold, which fades before it gets here!! 

E4A79FC9-5C50-45DA-A986-7D19C6D37503.png

4C76FFC4-BE44-4932-995C-F1B3AC0DA7D0.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Can this really appear at this stage, surely it can’t be a massive outlier at day 8!! If this is showing in the morning or on the ECM I expect some major rewording of the METO long range!! 

If it is going to appear at this stage, it will probably be on GFS before ECM, heights into Greenland, the GFS is the best at this - it is the only thing it is best at, mind - but I’d back GFS in this (very unusual) UK situation every time.  That said it’d need more than 1 run to convince me, but here’s the thing.  It is one thing for the NH wave pattern to be meridional and primed for a Greenland high, it is quite another to actually get one.  And it is the GFS most likely to sniff it out…exciting stuff…

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Are you all sure you can clear that upper ridge nw with the jet profile ???

100 percent , we’ll have full GEFS support for sure

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

100 percent , we’ll have full GEFS support for sure

Actually it’s going to go straight to an easterly without the northerly portion. Completely doolally for that timescale but you’ve got to love the pub run!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
4 minutes ago, topo said:

If I calculate correctly pressure is 1085 at the center! GFSOPEU18_180_1.png

Quite possibly, I think Meteociel stops at 1070!  Of course the heights are overblown by the elevation in Greenland, but impressive still!

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