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Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

Anthony Burden

By Anthony Burden
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Here are this morning's GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles, which show a high degree of uncertainty. So, although the weather mightn't play ball, the chart-watching game will be fun!

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

In 24 hours, EC 500mb ens mean changing it's tune, particularly over Scandi, with upper pattern for Thursday 18th Nov next week, so wouldn't get too hung up on what it's showing this morning beyond 7 days!

Yesterday's 00z EPS for day 10 / Thurs 18 Nov for00z:

369561387_ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_day10-24hrs.thumb.png.f4f413a323d89aa4d532eedc0428dd7d.png

Today's 00z EPS day 9 / Thurs 18 Nov for 00z:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.6dfa72ad0daf088ed5c3218e80e4e0a6.png

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

In 24 hours, EC 500mb ens mean changing it's tune, particularly over Scandi, with upper pattern for Thursday 18th Nov next week, so wouldn't get too hung up on what it's showing this morning beyond 7 days!

Yesterday's 00z EPS for day 10 / Thurs 18 Nov for00z:

369561387_ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_day10-24hrs.thumb.png.f4f413a323d89aa4d532eedc0428dd7d.png

Today's 00z EPS day 9 / Thurs 18 Nov for 00z:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.6dfa72ad0daf088ed5c3218e80e4e0a6.png

Oh my lord...

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
  • Author
Posted

Morning all,lots of early excitement in the charts this morning GFS cold dream scenario ECM GEM flatter

atlantic westerly.All good to see at this early stage best keep a good eye on fax charts along with short range

GEM ensembles,not to get carried away past 144 hrs is the key but just to see these charts is very exciting 

all cold fans enjoy this Great chart watching.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Good morning. Another day of uncertainty no doubt. The previous posts alluded to the conflicting output from the models ec, gem, and gfs. The ec looks "at day 10" to be trying to get ready to push Heighths nw. Gfs is already there  theoretically. The usual track is ec underestimating and gfs the opposite that said a middle ground in November isn't a disaster. 3 weeks left in November so scope for plenty of swings. I'd be looking at the models keeping the PV ene based as a key feature and see how the ridging to the wnw plays out. There's not any strong signal for a major drop in pressure and raging east to west jet. Nay bad and in a pretty decent place going towards winter

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

There is almost unanimous MJO agreement that it will be Mickey mousing around phase 5 yet the outcome on EPS seemed to have switched from Sceuro trough to Sceuro high. Increddible.

PhotoCollage_1636449180201.jpg

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

ICON is first off the blocks and at T120 it nearly has a good Scandy Block, slightly further North than the last run. In reality I think it’s nearer day 10 where the confusion is, but who’s saying we won’t see another flip in the models!! 

F97576BE-44AF-413C-AE05-FDEACBDDB902.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
38 minutes ago, Nick F said:

In 24 hours, EC 500mb ens mean changing it's tune, particularly over Scandi, with upper pattern for Thursday 18th Nov next week, so wouldn't get too hung up on what it's showing this morning beyond 7 days!

Yesterday's 00z EPS for day 10 / Thurs 18 Nov for00z:

369561387_ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_day10-24hrs.thumb.png.f4f413a323d89aa4d532eedc0428dd7d.png

Today's 00z EPS day 9 / Thurs 18 Nov for 00z:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.6dfa72ad0daf088ed5c3218e80e4e0a6.png

Prefer yesterday's!!!!

 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Prefer yesterday's!!!!

 

We shall know very soon whether gfs is king of the atlantic or ecm is king of both europe and the atlantic put together!!!gota side with ecm right now!!!gfs has been very very wrong before at just 2 or 3 days out!i for one hope ecm is incorrect right now!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

We shall know very soon whether gfs is king of the atlantic or ecm is king of both europe and the atlantic put together!!!gota side with ecm right now!!!gfs has been very very wrong before at just 2 or 3 days out!i for one hope ecm is incorrect right now!

You've been here a long time, you should know the vast majority of the time ECM will trump GFS.

That said I don't think ec is bad , it looks mainly dry ,just need a bit of amplification in the Atlantic....

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Flat as a pancake on the 00z mean charts. GFS det once again a cold outlier.

gensnh-31-1-312.thumb.png.f98944a67deac2a0daf855e15e99a0f3.png

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Seen these differences in modelling all too often

What has happened before is that GFS is proven to have correctly picked up a signal but has brought it forward in time too early and is 5-7 days out. So, if this happens again then we can expect the cold towards the end of week of 22 Nov rather than the end of next week

My guess is the 6z GFS will persist with that cold signal but then start to water it down, push it back or drop it completely from today's 12z onwards

If it isn't dropped completely, it will also, likely, be a watered down version of what we're seeing on GFS. So fog and frost could be an issue but snow wouldn't be. Not that I mind - let's save that for 2nd week of December onwards

What I would say is that, for my tastes, that ECM run is very boring but even then day 12 onwards might start to look a bit more interesting

Edited by LRD
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

GFS climb down, euro heights not getting pulled up towards Greenland on this run. Expected I guess. It may still end up ok, we shall see!! 

CC8F60C4-6495-46E4-BEC4-E2E0D8099D5B.png

24F8AED8-466A-4CBB-9C01-2E54E9AF9FEA.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

And bingo!!!gfs moves towards ecm just like that!!time to see how much high pressure frost and fog we can get out of this blocky pattern!unless that flattens out as well lol!!!

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I daresay the GFS will get stick now but it's ensembles never really supported the 0z run

Still looking a bit 'ridgy' up to the NW of us on 6z but a low has prevented full ridging to Greenland

Looks like it might be an interesting start to the season though. Polar view still showing a lack of any real vortex power. Certainly not in the usual places:

image.thumb.png.cbaaaf140c2f9f947bbcc17c63b6c7bb.png

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Bradley in Kent Aficionado

Bradley in Kent

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

GFS 6z still okay to me with HP dominating patterns and cold entering Scandinavia. Of course with any HP scenario one would hope it's a frosty affair with sunny days rather than a gloom fest. Too many things had to go right if we were ever to get the glory charts (and verification) of previous runs

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Bradley in Kent said:

GFS 6z still okay to me with HP dominating patterns and cold entering Scandinavia. Of course with any HP scenario one would hope it's a frosty affair with sunny days rather than a gloom fest. Too many things had to go right if we were ever to get the glory charts (and verification) of previous runs

Indeed. But looking at the 6z it might be a gloom fest with cloud from the Atlantic spilling over the top of the High.

image.thumb.png.98b075d29a37dc6e9917f20861c5a49e.png

I honestly can not remember the last time we had a 'traditional' autumnal high in November, producing fog and sharp frosts. Not in the tropical south where I am anyway

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Gfs 6z is about where I thought it would be given the ec, gem. Its fine with the PV and cold firing threw Scandinavia and the east. Fi is still building a ridge to the nw and heading towards Greenland .PV also splitting fron the Arctic area. Not bad at all

Edited by swfc
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Bradley in Kent Aficionado

Bradley in Kent

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted
On 09/11/2021 at 10:47, LRD said:

Indeed. But looking at the 6z it might be a gloom fest with cloud from the Atlantic spilling over the top of the High.

image.thumb.png.98b075d29a37dc6e9917f20861c5a49e.png

I honestly can not remember the last time we had a 'traditional' autumnal high in November, producing fog and sharp frosts. Not in the tropical south where I am anyway

You're probably right, we'd need HP more over us if we want to pull in drier continental air giving nice clear conditions. November 2016 I think is the last time we had a traditional Autumn High for an extended period of time. 

Still, at least it's not a write off as things stand!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Yes, folks -- the game's afoot: -10C T850s invading from the North! What's not to like about today's GFS 06Z operational run? All we need now is for the weather to play its part?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And how I'd love to see the tPV set up over there!  image.thumb.png.52b261ce92638a8dc3c143e8a7f88be9.png

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