model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[weirpig]

Ext Ensembles  Op and Control right at the bottom however there are many that start to tank the uppers -10 for one perb   Way out to be nothing more than fun  but its nice to see the snow row making a showing   Central England 

Edited November 8, 2021 by weirpig

[Ali1977]

I’m liking the ECM at 168 with heights building up towards NE Canada, this is going to be a stonker I reckon

[weirpig]

Out to 192 on the ecm  and central eastern europe really enters the freezer on this run.

[Ali1977]

Still looking good at 192 although the I’m not sure how the bowling ball low to the west of the heights will act 

[swfc]

On 08/11/2021 at 18:39, Ali1977 said:

I’m liking the ECM at 168 with heights building up towards NE Canada, this is going to be a stonker I reckon

Yes Ali the ares of high pressureto the south  are propped up by low Heighths. It looks cocked and loaded firing blanks on the 12 z

Edited November 8, 2021 by swfc

[Methuselah]

So, just like last January, T850s do not look low enough for much if any lowland snowfall in these parts, convection over the North Sea could be potentially stonking. More of that much-loved thundersleet, perhaps?

    

And those 2m maximum temps look a tad optimistic, to me?

[Ali1977]

Drastic fail TBF, thankfully with it failing late on there’s a chance it’s wrong - and hopefully not correct!!

[damianslaw]

Sometimes you look at the models and think.. 'odd'.. and shake your head. UKMO and ECM just look very odd indeed.. all over the shop with the position of heights and what they do with them.

[carinthian]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Sometimes you look at the models and think.. 'odd'.. and shake your head. UKMO and ECM just look very odd indeed.. all over the shop with the position of heights and what they do with them.

Think you are right, odd indeed. Example below shown on the UKMO extended chart . Strange temp profile over Germany compared to the Southern Alps that does not look right, unless some kind of fohn affect is profiled into the model. This run has the high sinking into Central Euroland and replacing the lower heights over the Med. Not good for a colder outlook but as you say, UKMO/ECM look odd indeed. Personally, think UKMO has over stated the heights on its latest output over the Med in the later part of its run. 

[sheikhy]

Ecm is a yaaawn fest!!it just amplifies too much to the east as well!!

[Cambrian]

Great to see your post @minus10

The 72 hour transformation went the other way on the 12z ECM operational run.

From168h, a reindeer you feel you could come to love….

 

To 240h, a poodle you just know that you just know you will come to dislike immensely.

 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Cambrian

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters are out.  T192-T240:

The choice here seems to be a Greenland high (cluster 2) or heights into both Greenland and Scandi (clusters 1 and 3):

I think, and this is with a longer term hat on, that I prefer the latter.  A brief Greenland high would not have much in the way of teeth in mid-November (maybe an IMBY opinion).  But the holy grail - and we should have ambitions for this now, given the model output to date - would be a complete locking up of the NH pattern going into winter proper, and this would feature both a Greenland and Scandi block of some sort or other.  

Later T264+ timescale:

Well first thing to state right away - there is absolutely nothing zonal about any of them.  Cluster 3 is the Greenland high option.  Cluster 1 looks like the scenario I have discussed above, would like to see the NH view of that one to be honest.  There is so much uncertainty, but amongst that uncertainty there is something completely absent - the Atlantic.  

Back to that holy grail.  I have posted for several weeks now that I think a standing wave (wave 4 it would be) lock-up of the NH is a possibility this year - a possibility, not more - because the effects of that SSW last winter never really went away, meridional pattern persisting through summer, and I’m kind of feeling we are about to enter winter proper as if a SSW had just happened.  Which makes for fantastic model watching.

All the best, folks.

Mike

Edited November 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Jeremy Shockey]

 

Trending Colder by the looks of things after 18th Nov with an early Northerly blast

GFS 12z ensembles

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[stodge]

Well, to no great surprise, the GFS 12Z OP and Control runs generated plenty of comment.

A classic retrogression evolution with heights over Scandinavia heading west through the British Isles and then north-west into Greenland allowing the trough to drop south into Scandinavia and Central Europe.

It's a classic pattern for cold and if we were in January and this were at T+6 (despite some claiming it could still go wrong etc), it would be a wonderful scenario for those wanting snow especially across Eastern Britain.

Unfortunately, other models aren't anywhere near as enthusiastic - given it's all in FI I certainly wouldn't expect model unanimity at this stage - indeed, GFS might itself drop the scenario by tomorrow. We will see a build of heights over Scandinavia but the other possibility is the heights will sink quietly south and leave western Europe in a mild WSW'ly airflow or decline away east which might be more helpful for cold fans. 

I wonder if the GEM evolution might be where we end up - no retrogression and a half way house of the trough dropping into Scandinavia but too much energy in the Atlantic to allow heights to build north and west.

[Weather vane]

No doubt, exciting, albeit  somewhat odd charts,  at the moment. Plenty of routes to cold. Models struggling big time to figure out where the heights will go. At 240, we have ECM with Scandi heights, GFS with Greenland heights, and GEM kinda with neither.

Where will it end up???

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Weather vane said:

No doubt, exciting, albeit  somewhat odd charts,  at the moment. Plenty of routes to cold. Models struggling big time to figure out where the heights will go. At 240, we have ECM with Scandi heights, GFS with Greenland heights, and GEM kinda with neither.

Where will it end up???

My answer is both.

[nick sussex]

Greetings all from Larnaca .

I won’t be able to share UK coldies pain until mid January when I’m back in the UK.

Hopefully there will be less of the pain this winter and a bit more snow fun to look forward to !

Just perusing the latest model offerings and in typical model style the model which picked up the initial stronger ridge to the north  . The UKMO makes a meal of shortwave energy day 3 into 4 , it fails to clear that east and keeps it limpeted to the upstream low and then sinks the high pretty quickly afterwards .

In the great scheme of things this isn’t one of those OMG moments for coldies as the high cant sustain its position as too much energy slips east over the top .

The sinking of the high looks odds on across all the outputs it’s just the initial position and how far north it gets before that happens that’s more uncertain . The GFS pulls a rabbit out of the hat by day ten with the high edging west and nw opening up a nice set up with that northerly and then a locked in colder pattern with low heights over Southern Europe and displaced Azores high . Normal health warnings apply at that longer range!

The ECM starts off similar to the GFS but never gets to the day ten fireworks with a less favourable upstream set up .

It’s early in the season so not as much at stake for coldies than later on but of course the GFS evolution would be welcome !

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[sheikhy]

Ridiculous differences at just 90 hours over the uk!!12z low over the uk!18z high pressure over the uk!!some crazy stuff happening!!normally happens when something significant is afoot!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Great to see the uptempo mood in here as we countdown to Winter proper. Anything at this stage can only be a positive....perhaps talk of a 2010 re run is a little optimistic! Every year can be unique in its own right....for better or worse!

Anyway 2010 is one for the History books....let's make 2021/22 the one we will never forget!

Wishful thinking...perhaps! But just like the lottery,you never know.

While we are at it,tonight's 46 anomalies again hint at good Height rises to the N/NW at various times over the next few weeks,and the signal remains as we move into Xmas month!

Have a very profitable week ahead

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Great to see the uptempo mood in here as we countdown to Winter proper. Anything at this stage can only be a positive....perhaps talk of a 2010 re run is a little optimistic! Every year can be unique in its own right....for better or worse!

Anyway 2010 is one for the History books....let's make 2021/22 the one we will never forget!

Wishful thinking...perhaps! But just like the lottery,you never know.

While we are at it,tonight's 46 anomalies again hint at good Height rises to the N/NW at various times over the next few weeks,and the signal remains as we move into Xmas month!

Have a very profitable week ahead

Wow that looks better than the last update!!!!anyone care to explain what is causing all this forecastes blocking cos we clearly are not gettin any help from the strat!so what could it be?!

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow that looks better than the last update!!!!anyone care to explain what is causing all this forecastes blocking cos we clearly are not gettin any help from the strat!so what could it be?!

Hangover from last year’s SSW, in my view!  The atmosphere never really reset properly. 

Pub run T108:

Greenland this one is my bet!

Just to add, re the strat, here’s the zonal mean zonal winds plot:

And it’s kind of neither nowt nor summat, to be honest, after an initial ramp up it stalls and stays the same and it certainly isn’t impacting our weather down here for the foreseeable… 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Hangover from last year’s SSW, in my view!  The atmosphere never really reset properly. 

Pub run T108:

Greenland this one is my bet!

 

Another odd chart in a day of odd ones. Low pressure spins up but goes nowhere to our west.. bizarre.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow that looks better than the last update!!!!anyone care to explain what is causing all this forecastes blocking cos we clearly are not gettin any help from the strat!so what could it be?!

Perhaps a flat and sluggish jet helping things along,also a little help of coming out of Solar minimum,which inturn is perhaps contributing towards this weak and meandering jet. Like @Mike Poole has stated very often,the pattern since last year as not really been shaken up at all this year! 

Tbh Shaky I'm feeling very optimistic...early days I know,but I just can't see a rampant and Wstly orientated sypnotic dominating the winter pattern!

Only time will tell,but the early signs look encouraging.

Edited November 8, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Great to see the uptempo mood in here as we countdown to Winter proper. Anything at this stage can only be a positive....perhaps talk of a 2010 re run is a little optimistic! Every year can be unique in its own right....for better or worse!

Anyway 2010 is one for the History books....let's make 2021/22 the one we will never forget!

Wishful thinking...perhaps! But just like the lottery,you never know.

While we are at it,tonight's 46 anomalies again hint at good Height rises to the N/NW at various times over the next few weeks,and the signal remains as we move into Xmas month!

Have a very profitable week ahead

Thank you for the EC46 updates. I for one really appreciate it. Especially when it shows those types of charts lol . A positive vibe in here tonight. Casting aside burnt fingers from charts of old over the years - No wonder there is valid hope when we combine those ec46 charts with the extended gfs and ens. Certainly much reason to be optimistic tonight. 

[ICE COLD]

Already pushing into Greenland at T156 on the 18z