model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[stodge]

A colder outlook in the final third of November isn't wholly unusual - there's often been a colder snap around the 20th-21st of the month and it's often been a northerly.

It doesn't start and the start of December tends to be very mild with a long fetch SW'ly. The cycle of colder spells and milder spells is the feature of the transition from autumn into winter. There have been forecasts of a "front loaded" winter and of course 2010-11 was a prime example - everyone remembers December 2010 but who remembers January 2011 and February 2011? 

It's all nice to look at for now - a lot depends, it seems to me, on the position of next weekend's HP and that small LP coming up close to the Azores which encourages the ridge northward.

[Uncertainty]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

The hjghlighted sectioon is once again just a subjective opinion with no attempt at objectivity which, heaven forbid, might be of interest to some. One could equally argue that the continual posting of single charts in the 10-15 day period incredible boring as they have as much chance of verifying as me fitting into the NW community.

Anyhow now I'm in here a quick look at the ext anomalies, Tpv lobe over the Arctic with trough ext. down to the Labrador Straits area with a strong westerly jet running south of this around the Azores HP pushing north in the vicinity of the UK. How much influence this has appesars to be down to the alignment of the aforementioned trough. Temps around averager

Would be great if you’d pop in more often Knocker. Your objective analysis is always welcome… there will always be hopeful day 15 charts and throwaway one liners kicking about but I personally love reading detailed medium term synoptic musings from knowledgeable folk and we have lost many in recent years.

The way I read this forum is to simply ignore the chaff and ingest the wheat but understandably many others get frustrated with the wittering / fanciful posts and the bias towards certain weather types but it’s tricky to eliminate these altogether. Some might even say they are part of the  predictable but unique culture this forum and this thread in particular has to offer.

IMHO the more interesting, insightful, entertaining and well constructed posts we can get will serve to drive more such posts / posters into the forum. This includes posters with little meteorological experience  as their thoughts can be built upon and guided by the more experienced posters.

 

An example might be to feel free to post an outlying op run showing something spectacular in low res but then crucially accompany it with some reasoning and / or further charts to corroborate it’s potential validity. Today’s outlying GFS/ECM op runs for instance are indeed unlikely and fanciful but given the mjo progression / Nina and low/moderate cluster support they are not entirely unfounded. 
 

An interested reader would then read for example Knocker’s quoted piece above and see that the means and NOAA output are not presently supportive of the super high amplitude scenario and would be left to make their own mind up as to the direction reality is really moving going forward.

This isn’t a criticism of anyone in particular, more a call to arms to all of us this winter to deliver a balanced, thoughtful and good humoured take on this winter’s offerings …whatever wind direction they come to us from.

 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run rolling, at T90 compared to 12z T96, it is just going to come down faster on this run I think…

Vortex squeezed out earlier on this one.  

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run rolling, at T90 compared to 12z T96, it is just going to come down faster on this run I think…

Vortex squeezed out earlier on this one.  

Mo amplified fo sho! 

(more amplified for sure, been with some youths today) 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T144, see 1 the first push more potent as @Griff says above, but is push 2 that’s important, we wait and see…

[Griff]

From last night's weather bomb to November bbq (I know, I know)... 

[Griff]

BENDY AND THE JET!  

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

BENDY AND THE JET!  

Are we lookin more towards scandi on this run?!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Do we need to keep an eye or two on the back door?

18z 174 vs 12z 180

this is certainly more amplified in that respect.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Do we need to keep an eye or two on the back door?

18z 174 vs 12z 180

this is certainly more amplified in that respect.

Great minda think a like!!just said the same thing 5 mins ago

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 22:31, sheikhy said:

Great minda think a like!!just said the same thing 5 mins ago

Yes,...cold pool building to our east

18z 198 vs 12z 204

we have a Scandi high inside day ten.

this is awesome model watching right now folks.

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[ICE COLD]

Here comes the greeny ridge

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,...cold pool building to our east

18z 198 vs 12z 204

Why do i get this feeling at the end of this saga we gona get neither a greenland high or scandi high and we end up with a high plonked right over us instead!!

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile, there’s an in to Greenland at T216 that actually looks better than the 12z at T222;

Everything going on here!!

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 22:36, sheikhy said:

Why do i get this feeling at the end of this saga we gona get neither a greenland high or scandi high and we end up with a high plonked right over us instead!!

That is a major possibility looking at the cpc anomaly charts shaky.

but where would the hp anomaly shift?

[Griff]

Good fun for a Friday night! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Whoa!!!,...such drama's at day ten...

[damianslaw]

Mmm GFS from a northerly to a scandi high and no heights to the NW to be seen.. think we will have to go through the motions with it for the time being... models seem unsure what to do with the blocks at the moment, like a child playing with pieces of a jigsaw until it decides what looks rights..

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Whoa!!!,...such drama's at day ten...

Yes, but let’s not forget that nothing special is expected before day 10, the excitement in this run starts now, and it is the next ridge that may go into Greenland, we’ve been foxed by the earlier runs!!

[Allseasons-Si]

A frame on and these type of scenario's can dump some of the white stuff,...neg trough against the cold continental air...

...GREAT STUFF.

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A frame on and these type of scenario's can dump some of the white stuff,...neg trough against the cold continental air...

...GREAT STUFF.

Yes, but I have a feeling the GFS may need switching off and then back on again  

 

Going a bit ☯ 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes, but I have a feeling the GFS may need switching off and then back on again  

 

Going a bit ☯ 

Yes, agree this has gone off on one now, I don’t believe this evolution, fun though it has been to watch, goodnight all!

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 22:44, damianslaw said:

Mmm GFS from a northerly to a scandi high and no heights to the NW to be seen.. think we will have to go through the motions with it for the time being... models seem unsure what to do with the blocks at the moment, like a child playing with pieces of a jigsaw until it decides what looks rights..

You are not wrong there Damian

i just hope that these amplifications don't get watered down nearer the time,they mostly do though,it's the same when the gfs over does it with the dart board lows,this is interesting model watching though so early on in the season.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes, but I have a feeling the GFS may need switching off and then back on again  

Tbh I'd give it 72hrs +and see where gfs and ecm sit. 18z looks a bit off imo after the last 24 - 48 hours runs

[Griff]

I'd give it 10/10 for artistic flare but didn't find it believable