model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

And don't forget the (ad hoc?) 20-year Atlantification Cycle is now favourable too! If, like me, you've never heard of it, there's no need to panic; I think it might be a new one?

I've not heard of it tbh. Is it linked to the mfi or b+q

[damianslaw]

Is GFS reverting to its default power up the Atlantic as it has for much of the year only to drop it in more semi reliable timeframes.. as it has done so much of 2021 as it has never had a proper foothold..

[Frosty.]

If there’s no sign of cold, I’m not interested in posting…BUT..looking at the GEFS 6z long term as we head closer to winter, there are hints / signs of COLD?!  

 

[SqueakheartLW]

Nice Fantasy winter 2021/2022 runs alert

Those of you wanting a very cold January have a nice feast to look at on the recent CFS 9 monthly runs. The 12z and 18z dated 02/11/21 as well as today's 00z all have Januaries below 2C as a mean

02/11/2021     12z     January Mean = 1.18C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.48C

02/11/2021     18z     January Mean = 1.92C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -2.74C

The 2 above are good but today's 00z not only has the coldest January of the 3 it also features a quite cold December 2021 run as well

03/11/2021     00z     December Mean = 3.32C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 December mean = -1.65C

03/11/2021     00z     January Mean = 0.87C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.79C

Shame that the February and March 2022 sections let this run down somewhat

Pick of the cold fantasy charts from all 3 runs

02/11/2021 12z

02/11/2021 18z

03/11/2021 00z

December 2021

January 2022

[Eagle Eye]

Remember these? 

5 of them have some kind of cold incursion, 10 of them are high dominated and 13 of them are some kind of split. 3 of them are hard to tell. 

So for agreement is only at 41% overall and with the outcome to agreement ratio 

Outcome is likely between 31-35% likely to be the average of these put together, at t+144 hours that is very low model agreement for this far out. Sorry I haven't posted much today, my friends had me in stitches for ages 

Xander 

[Sweatyman]

On 03/11/2021 at 15:05, SqueakheartLW said:

Nice Fantasy winter 2021/2022 runs alert

Those of you wanting a very cold January have a nice feast to look at on the recent CFS 9 monthly runs. The 12z and 18z dated 02/11/21 as well as today's 00z all have Januaries below 2C as a mean

02/11/2021     12z     January Mean = 1.18C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.48C

02/11/2021     18z     January Mean = 1.92C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -2.74C

The 2 above are good but today's 00z not only has the coldest January of the 3 it also features a quite cold December 2021 run as well

03/11/2021     00z     December Mean = 3.32C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 December mean = -1.65C

03/11/2021     00z     January Mean = 0.87C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.79C

Shame that the February and March 2022 sections let this run down somewhat

Pick of the cold fantasy charts from all 3 runs

02/11/2021 12z

02/11/2021 18z

03/11/2021 00z

December 2021

January 2022

unfortunately its all a load of codswallop isnt it? Every time...

[Weather vane]

Is GEM on to something here? 180hr. Atlantic high stretching a little further north to stop Newfoundland low barelling across and flattening the jet. Allows jet to push southerly into Europe. Would be a nice pattern change not so far away. Prob all change in the next run...

[Weather vane]

5 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

Is GEM on to something here? 180hr. Atlantic high stretching a little further north to stop Newfoundland low barelling across and flattening the jet. Allows jet to push southerly into Europe. Would be a nice pattern change not so far away. Prob all change in the next run...

So much for that theory. Atlantic high back in charge by 240hr

Although pressure low in SE euro land.

[damianslaw]

No word on the GFS 12z shifts to a more amplified flow.. azores high never fully gains a foothold and is rebooted westward allowing NW flow with jet aligned NW-SE.. 

[swfc]

Just now, damianslaw said:

No word on the GFS 12z shifts to a more amplified flow.. azores high never fully gains a foothold and is rebooted westward allowing NW flow with jet aligned NW-SE.. 

Yes it's as meto forecast which is a surprise. Gfs 12z mean not bad so far also

[damianslaw]

Just now, swfc said:

Yes it's as meto forecast which is a surprise. Gfs 12z mean not bad so far also

I fully expected this.. lots of different output run to run from GFS.. some showing euro high holding greatest influence.. others mid Atlantic heights instead.. with this expect long drawn northerlies and southerlies before it settles on what I believe will be a predominant NW airstream with azores high nowhere to be seen..

[Allseasons-Si]

The control is at it again...

...although deep in FL.

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control is at it again...

...although deep in FL.

Yes it's been playing with this a while now and tbh unless you can time travel its worth a watch, it's there to be seen. so  it's possible given the mean it could be gaining traction hopefull

Edited November 3, 2021 by swfc

[swfc]

Not a bad gfs 12z mean

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, and you can see here that with the PV shunted over to the Russian side (wahay!), it leaves the upstream pattern for us a bit slack.  We  just have to hope that in the area highlighted a chance alignment allows WWA into Greenland, has happened on some runs but not many, so far:

[Allseasons-Si]

P23 is a snorter,...oink! oink!

[Methuselah]

All I can say about the GFS 12Z is: 

[Allseasons-Si]

I will have some of that JAM,...i mean JMA

Atlantic low diving on a SE trajectory and who knows what could happen from there,...all speculative but the models at least showing some interest.

 

[ICE COLD]

ECM is disgusting . No other words needed . 

[SLEETY]

Ecm probably mild outlier at the end like the other day,otherwise you can kiss goodbye to anything wintry  for at least the next 2-3 weeks

[Bradley in Kent]

On 03/11/2021 at 15:05, SqueakheartLW said:

Nice Fantasy winter 2021/2022 runs alert

Those of you wanting a very cold January have a nice feast to look at on the recent CFS 9 monthly runs. The 12z and 18z dated 02/11/21 as well as today's 00z all have Januaries below 2C as a mean

02/11/2021     12z     January Mean = 1.18C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.48C

02/11/2021     18z     January Mean = 1.92C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -2.74C

The 2 above are good but today's 00z not only has the coldest January of the 3 it also features a quite cold December 2021 run as well

03/11/2021     00z     December Mean = 3.32C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 December mean = -1.65C

03/11/2021     00z     January Mean = 0.87C     Anomaly to 1991-2020 January mean = -3.79C

Shame that the February and March 2022 sections let this run down somewhat

Pick of the cold fantasy charts from all 3 runs

02/11/2021 12z

02/11/2021 18z

03/11/2021 00z

December 2021

January 2022

The chance of any of these verifying is probably 0.000001%! However as you say, 'fantasy', and there's nothing wrong with looking at eye candy charts just for fun! 

In the nearer and more realistic timeframe, I'm just hoping against hope we don't see that horrible Euro high build in and PV settle over NE Canada. Once that happens, the chance of beauty synoptics like those charts is 0%

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM is disgusting . No other words needed . 

FI and disgusting for some but not all! to me it's super, too good if anything and can only downgrade I feel, to me disgusting is low after low battering us

[Frosty.]

44 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm probably mild outlier at the end like the other day,otherwise you can kiss goodbye to anything wintry  for at least the next 2-3 weeks

Yeah but no but…winter is still almost 4 weeks away so no worries!…as for the ECM 12z long term, could see some frog.. ..I mean fog ?  forming under that high further south?!  

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by jon snow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And don't forget the (ad hoc?) 20-year Atlantification Cycle is now favourable too! If, like me, you've never heard of it, there's no need to panic; I think it might be a new one?

3x 20  60 Yr cycle, do some reading and digging for info rather than do some inane side wiping ‘digging’ . Might  help

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

46 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm probably mild outlier at the end like the other day,otherwise you can kiss goodbye to anything wintry  for at least the next 2-3 weeks

Nope, Indian Summer conditions more ‘likely’ for mid month so get golfing….I am

 

BFTP