model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, you could make a case for a shot into Greenland from here, with a repeater:

I think at this point, 1 Nov, there are so many possibilities and the models and indeed the weather itself are shifting between myriad possibilities for the future.  So many factors in play here now this year, directly, trop PV out of position to Russian side, meridional pattern hangover from summer, which in turn was a hangover from last winter, MJO, GWO (well maybe, as mere mortals can’t see the charts for this anymore ), and then indirectly, EQBO - this looking good now, effect on strat vortex, not a player now, but so worth watching as it could become one at any minute!  ENSO weak Nina looks promising too.

But the bottom line is that we need a week or two at least to see how these are going to play out, which is going to have the dominant influence on our weather, and from the model output at the moment, it is difficult to see.  

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The fact that there are 6 just highlights the uncertainty, quite like cluster 3 but the rest neither nowt nor summat at this stage.  

Edited November 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

^ Having said that, uncertainty seems to reduce on the extended ECM T264+ clusters, cluster 2 (22 members) looks to bring in the Greenland block that we are looking for:

So, the timescale is set, just after mid month?

The two clusters could not be more different for UK outcome, cluster 1 euro high, cluster 2 Greenland high, euro low.  Something has to give soon!!

And, right on cue, are the cooler SSTs about to resurface to reproduce that tripole from earlier in the summer, maybe:

Edited November 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[DavidS]

And for the GFS” next trick………….

taken with appropriate sized pinch of salt of course, but interesting nonetheless.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by DavidS

[sheikhy]

Once again very very dry runs for central and eastern parts of the uk!!!western areas more prone to the rain as usual!!!might have just got the first frost of the season here!will go out and check in a few mins!!

[SLEETY]

Boring ecm, at least itt will be mild, no sign of anything cold, don't want a euro high etc to start dominating, as yes I know its only late Autumn, but they can last months, once they get set-in the reason so many crud mild winters, the last 34 years

[mb018538]

38 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again very very dry runs for central and eastern parts of the uk!!!western areas more prone to the rain as usual!!!might have just got the first frost of the season here!will go out and check in a few mins!!

Yes @sheikhy - a very dry run again for many, and much welcome I'd expect. Western Scotland still looks very wet, though today's run is nowhere near as extreme as yesterday. Last night's week 1 ECM 500mb update matches the OP run pretty well - higher pressure and drier towards the SE, lower pressure and wetter towards the NW:



By mid month high pressure is expected to play a greater role, and begin to retrogress to the mid Atlantic. 
This is likely a reaction to the MJO moving into phase 6 around this time, which has been hinted at for a while, but could be firming up - and matches the phase 6 analogue for November. Higher pressure to the W/NW could mean colder and drier conditions start to become more widespread through mid month onwards. One to watch.

Edited November 2, 2021 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Good morning, all, on this first frosty morning of the season. So that's the excitement out of the way, as the GFS 00Z operational run doesn't provide much. I'll stick with what I said yesterday, that fog looks like being the thing to look forward to:

    

    

    

I guess there might be hints at retrogression later on? We'll see. GEFS 00Z ensembles:

    

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yes @sheikhy - a very dry run again for many, and much welcome I'd expect. Western Scotland still looks very wet, though today's run is nowhere near as extreme as yesterday. Last night's week 1 ECM 500mb update matches the OP run pretty well - higher pressure and drier towards the SE, lower pressure and wetter towards the NW:



By mid month high pressure is expected to play a greater role, and begin to retrogress to the mid Atlantic. 
This is likely a reaction to the MJO moving into phase 6 around this time, which has been hinted at for a while, but could be firming up - and matches the phase 6 analogue for November. Higher pressure to the W/NW could mean colder and drier conditions start to become more widespread through mid month onwards. One to watch.

Oooh now that looks delish❄!!!oh and yes i can confirm first frost of the season here!!winter is here baby!!!!

[Frosty.]

Not a bad end to the Gfs 0z operational..,BOOM!…bring it on! 

[Weather vane]

Most GFS panel members over the past few days are showing a lot of support for hp in central/NW europe out to mid month. ECM also showing this for a few days. So, not looking good for a southerly tracking jet in the next 2 weeks unless some major change happens. Just hope a long lasting euro hp slug doesn't come out of this.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm has a little interest by t+168 but gfs well don't bother looking.  Just shows how uncertain the outlook is even within medium term.....

[ICE COLD]

Gfs 6z trying it’s best to cheer us coldies up after the horrible 00z runs

[swfc]

Hi Di hi campers. I think I'm missing something in the outlook looking at some of the comments. Qbo, mjo looking good and not much sign of a raging sw flow. For the areas suffering floods some welcome dry weather and a first frost here today. Imo not a bad outlook in regard to the projected synoptics and anything from the nnw will bring down temps ie ground, sst and snow cover to the east. All not bad for November folks. An example is the gfs 6z op be it ten day's. PV smashed 

Edited November 2, 2021 by swfc

[swfc]

Just now, swfc said:

Not to shabby 

[Methuselah]

Well, I'm not sure whether I like the GFS 06Z or not. Suffice to say that things still look like being (generally) a lot drier than recently. As a 'bonus', however: in addition to possible fog & frost, there's the chance of some beefy showers building over the still-warm North Sea?

    

    

    

It does, I would say, look very much like bog-standard November fayre; never quite cold enough to be useful, but plenty cold enough to be a nuisance!

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not to shabby 

Not at all, it looks like day 10-12 things are starting to move in the right direction with Heights migrating north. Many ENS have HP moving up over the U.K., and some moving North. hopefully by the weekend we we will tracking the first decent cold spell - and not way out in FI The GEM and ECM will hopefully start picking up on this in the next day or 2.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Ali1977

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Boring ecm, at least itt will be mild, no sign of anything cold, don't want a euro high etc to start dominating, as yes I know its only late Autumn, but they can last months, once they get set-in the reason so many crud mild winters, the last 34 years

I think mate your jumping the gun a tad here...you seem really downbeat on the output this year...please try to remember it's only the beginning of November,and the chances are we will be looking at  completely different circumstances during the next few weeks! Personally I'm always very doubtful of pinning hopes on severe winter prospects at this early in the season.

Some joy on last night's anomalies regarding High pressure to our NW come mid and latter part of this month....one too watch!

Patience young man 

[johnholmes]

My take on the latest 500 mb anomaly charts as a guide to our surface weather

Tuesday 2 November

Update to see how they have changed over the past 7 days

Ec-Well the marked trough over/just e of the UK has gone with a mostly w’ly flow showing from a rather flabby trough sw of Greenland. The merest suggestion in the contours e of the uk of very slt ridging. Perhaps another main feature is the rise in heights over the uk, taking central/n’ern England; it was about 540 on Noaa it is now nearer 552 DM.

Noaa is quite similar to the Ec output, with its contour height about 552 DM n’ern/central England on the 6-10 day chart; perhaps nearer 550 DM on its 8-14 otherwise that chart looks very similar to the 6-10.

Both Noaa and Ec have a strongish 500 mb flow Atlantic/UK so any ridging at the surface is transitory behind surface weather systems. A slight suggestion of +ve heights Iberia to NW Europe but not enough to suggest any longer term ridging, yet.

Much as UK Met 6-15 day forecast really sums it up in my opinion! I would use the term, temperatures from a ouch below to a touch above, possible wintry over Scottish mountains.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by johnholmes

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Boring ecm, at least itt will be mild, no sign of anything cold, don't want a euro high etc to start dominating, as yes I know its only late Autumn, but they can last months, once they get set-in the reason so many crud mild winters, the last 34 years

It’s not mild though maybe if you’re in Scotland, keeps below average temperatures apart from this Sunday with southwesterly flow, and regular night frost. Light continental flows are no longer mild.

[Methuselah]

Looking at the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles, things look pretty average for early-mid November, IMO. But that shouldn't be too disheartening for peeps, as there's nothing there that points toward a mild winter. But, inevitably, there's nothing there that portends a cold winter either!

Then again, 'being in the dark' is quite normal at this time of year?

   

Edited November 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Anthony Burden]

Afternoon all,GFS 06z showing for the first time this year showing the gold card scenario.albeit in 

fantasy island it’s hopefully the start of a real winter start.High pressure to the north west low pressure

to the northeast.BRING IT ON.

[Eagle Eye]

On 01/11/2021 at 13:52, Eagle Eye said:

Who needs lunch anyway? 

I'd much rather spend my time looking at charts at almost day 10 on 1 single GFS run that'll most likely be an outlier of sorts 

The one thing I find extremely annoying is that the Atlantic is still going to be intervening in this and unless the cooler air can win the so called 'battle' in the Atlantic then this run is as good as done for for our mid-range Winter. Still lots too look forward to, 4 more months of "IT'S GOING TO SNOW" followed by "IT'S MARCH WHY IS IT STILL SNOWING" 

 

Update 

Atlantic wins the battle on this run but still not near reliable timeframes yet. 

[Uncertainty]

Some decent agreement for amplification to the N of the U.K. on the big 3 later in November…

GEFS

 

GEPS

 

EPS clusters 

Cant post the mean but only cluster 4 (15%) looks zonal, though I wouldn’t fancy the stuck trough on cluster 2 either. Still, you can reconcile the above means with that set quite easily.

Still on track then for that seasonal middle/end part of November that has been hinted at by the EC46 and JMA weeklies. 

Way too early to be talking details.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Uncertainy
Even teachers forget about homophones!

[sheikhy]

Anyone seeing the added amplification in the last 3 runs of gfs around 120 hours just to the west of the uk!!because of that we get the high further north and over the uk!!!after viewing the gfs up to 192 hours that is most certainly not a normal picture for mid november!!!no raging pv at all over greenland and bits and bobs of little vortex all over the pole!!!

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone seeing the added amplification in the last 3 runs of gfs around 120 hours just to the west of the uk!!because of that we get the high further north and over the uk!!!after viewing the gfs up to 192 hours that is most certainly not a normal picture for mid november!!!no raging pv at all over greenland and bits and bobs of little vortex all over the pole!!!

Signal for more pronounced height rises to the NW as we move through mid November have been seen in much output of long term anomalies for quite a while now.. no surprise to see such developments now creeping just into the outer realms of semi reliable.. roughly 10-14 day timeframe but wont come into the reliable in earnest for another week.