model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Allseasons-Si]

Hahaaaa!!!,...is the gfs picking up the signal again or is this going to be another huge cold outlier liar

none the less,...check this beaut out,...WOW.

eagerly awaiting the gefs ens now.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Allseasons-Si]

And i know where the GEM would be heading after day ten but let's not get carried away just yet

personally though,...that is a great chart^^,can we at least have a good start to winter,...well end of Autumn

Edited November 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si
added info

[yamkin]

It will be interesting if the very cold conditions as per today's GFS 12Z output continues its prediction for the 18th Nov onwards ❄❄❄

[Eagle Eye]

GFS has taken steroids

Imagine seeing this on the charts in November

Edited November 5, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Ali1977]

WOW, first run I’ve not followed for a while and that happens!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The control looks to be going in the same direction as the op,...hmmm!!!,interesting.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Now this is the real thing! if we don't get it, may as well stay mild! do not want half hearted wet NW'lys

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control looks to be going in the same direction as the op,...hmmm!!!,interesting.

I said expect GFS to show southerlies and northerlies before settling on a theme..  one I believe will be looking to the NW... GFS best at picking out developments and forcing when it is from the north west. ECM always lags behind in these situations.

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 18:07, damianslaw said:

I said expect GFS to show southerlies and northerlies before settling on a theme..  one I believe will be looking to the NW... GFS best at picking out developments and forcing when it is from the north west. ECM always lags behind in these situations.

The gfs is better at picking up Greenland height's as i recall too Damian,let's hope that the gfs is right

meanwhile,...i will have p 6 please,...what a snorter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Half expect some sort of N'ly, have a tendancy to arrive at weekends and around 19th Nov, more likely I'd say than in Jan

[Allseasons-Si]

Yup,the gfs and p 6 are considerable cold outliers

but i will be looking for a trend and some consistency in future runs.

[swfc]

17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is better at picking up Greenland height's as i recall too Damian,let's hope that the gfs is right

meanwhile,...i will have p 6 please,...what a snorter.

That has to be longest fetch  northerly ever on gfs proper snorter 

Edited November 5, 2021 by swfc

[swfc]

Ec looks like it's being dragged kicking  and screaming but looks to be heading towards a better outlook. Maybe heading to the gfs camp

[Mike Poole]

GFS T300, look at the WAA on this run T300, just west of Greenland, this is the sort of thing that actually sticks, as the rest of the run shows, following the 1015 contour, here:

Agree with comments by others that a decent chance at a Greenland high, is more likely to be modelled correctly by GFS than ECM, it is the one scenario for UK weather, that the GFS has a better track record.  But this is so far out still.  Many twists and turns but if it does get closer in time, watch the GFS.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hmmm!!!

where is the ECM going at day ten then,...it's a lot more amplified than the 00z run

here at day 9.

break away low in the Atlantic,a possible northerly there in the making.

[damianslaw]

ECM very different this evening. Trough pulled eastwards high ridges through north- south elongation. Very amplified..  low incoming looks primed to sink SE into Europe.. northerly incoming?..

[Allseasons-Si]

Ooooh!!!,...not quite from the ECM but a step in the right direction.

[Mike Poole]

Yes, I think you’ve got a much better chance of a Greenland high holding if the WAA is west of Greenland.  ECM T216 and T240:

Not going to hold here, but might in future runs.  Very interesting charts appearing all of a sudden…

Edited November 5, 2021 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I thunk you’ve got a much better chance of a Greenland high holding if the WAA is west of Greenland.  ECM T216 and T240:

Not going to hold here, but might in future runs.  Very interesting charts appearing all of a sudden…

The trend is for a more amplified flow and definitely airstream from between west and north. Didn't expect ECM to swing so wildly to such a scenario this evening.. must be a strong indicator this is where we are heading. We can see clues even on Sunday.. more amplified more of a dig of air from the NW compared to the flatter westerly flow being shown earlier in the week.

Models showing la Nina imprint expected in November.

Edited November 5, 2021 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

Oo-er, Missus. That there operational run sure gets a tad nippy! 

    

[sheikhy]

Brilliant output tonight!!from gfs and ecm!!cold frosty weather followed by cold snowy northerlies!!!cant remember when we saw charts like this this early on in the season!!

[Allseasons-Si]

On 05/11/2021 at 19:21, sheikhy said:

Brilliant output tonight!!from gfs and ecm!!cold frosty weather followed by cold snowy northerlies!!!cant remember when we saw charts like this this early on in the season!!

2010 Shaky

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Brilliant output tonight!!from gfs and ecm!!cold frosty weather followed by cold snowy northerlies!!!cant remember when we saw charts like this this early on in the season!!

Deep FI outliers though! but do half expect some kind of northerly around 19th/20th Nov

[Mike Poole]

And suddenly all things are possible, what we have been talking about has been well beyond day 10, but is now edging closer on the models.  GFS 12z superb, ECM a big shift towards blocking into Greenland, not there yet.  I think the holy grail still is beyond day 10, but we have it in our sights, which turns me to the ECM clusters.  

T192-T240:

Op in cluster 2 and that looks fairly similar to be honest.  Cluster 1 still has big heights over Europe so we’d kind of like to see that going.  Cluster 3 looks stuck in the middle of something, a destination still to come, so I wouldn’t write that one off.  Important thing is there is nothing zonal about any of them, it is more about where the blocks fall.  

T264+:

Well, where do you start - there are 6 of them, so highlights big uncertainty, but let’s pick the bones out of it.

Cluster 4!  8 members, this is the full blown Greenland high, moving from Atlantic ridge to -NAO.

Cluster 5  8 members, looks like the Murr sausage to me, not sure how many teeth an easterly from that would have so early in winter.

Cluster 1 10 members, decent ridge decent northerly, not sure how long it would last, maybe an ECM op run +.

Less keen on the other 3.  Interesting to see how this pans out now….gripped now by models for winter 2021-22!  

Overall picture, very promising for an early cold snap towards the last third of the month, I would say…and comparisons with 2010 are entirely valid, and they have been for some time, as a number of posters including me have pointed out how the meridional pattern from last winter has by and large persisted right through the summer, as it did in 2010.  

Edited November 5, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

2010 Shaky

Maybe thats the reason!!it was over a decade ago!!!!legendary iconic charts they were as well❄!!will never forget it!!i still remember it was so cold even the fog was producing snowflakes!!