model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[blizzard81]

I thought I would try something out that I haven't done for quite a while, well not since last winter anyway lol. Like many others I view the pub run with a view to much amusement more than anything but I thought I would compare last nights chart for noon next Wed's with tonight's chart for the same time. So.... Last night's chart being T162 compared with tonight's T138. Even the pub run must have a better success rate as things draw nearer. I for one was very pleased with tonight's update. 

[Griff]

Lower pressure into the med on this run too.

[Mike Poole]

Liking where this one is going T168, such small differences earlier make big changes!

[Allseasons-Si]

On 18/11/2021 at 22:23, Mike Poole said:

Liking where this one is going T168, such small differences earlier make big changes!

Do you know what Mike,...it looks like a trophy,...lets hope that we can raise it after this cold spell

the whole lot is sliding NNW-SSE,...what next.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Liking where this one is going T168, such small differences earlier make big changes!

Presumably you're thinking ahead to what follows after, because at this rate I might have to pull down the stars and stripes and put up a maple leaf flag!

[Ali1977]

I’m liking the little area of heights that’s now showing to the West of Greenland , might help re-create a Greeny high and a better cold pool head our way!! 

[January Snowstorm]

Quite a poor 18z for coldies.

Our mid Atlantic high that was meant to ridge towards Greenland is now just fattening in mid Atlantic. A trend of its own 12z now being supported here. The cold to our North/Northeast is notable and remains so

As I said earlier I feel upgrades are imminent so we see what the morning brings!

Though not a bad FI!

Edited November 18, 2021 by January Snowstorm

[weirpig]

18z run is ok  but it is typical early winter fare  on the ground at least   off course it may develop into something better as the next days progress  if and  its a big if the colder weather does arrive its past 200hrs again.    Think ill just watch the 12zs for the next few days  see were we stand then.

Edited November 18, 2021 by weirpig

[January Snowstorm]

This is about 8 days away so nudging FI but just look at that depth of cold up North! It looks very potent for November.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z may look like a downgrade but the overall pattern remains,...chillax.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How often do we see a segment of vortex dropping over us!! Do I detect  some signs of amplification towards the SW tip of Greenland..or do I have my beer goggles on.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

18z run is ok  but it is typical early winter fare  on the ground at least   off course it may develop into something better as the next days progress  if and  its a big if the colder weather does arrive its past 200hrs again.    Think ill just watch the 12z for the next few days  see were we stand then.

OK?  The whole blinking lot is coming down here!  Pub run T222, there’s whites in there in the capture zone for the UK!

[Ali1977]

This is proper cold heading down this time , plenty of snow in there

[Griff]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

How often do we see a segment of vortex dropping over us!! Do I detect  some signs of amplification towards the SW tip of Greenland..or do I have my beer goggles on.

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK?  The whole blinking lot is coming down here!  Pub run T222, there’s whites in there in the capture zone for the UK!

I understand what you say and it does now look great  but its at 222 and still not cold enough for the white stuff    with such difference between models even before that  im not onboard with a freeze.   see were we are in another 3 days  if its still like that them im on board

Edited November 18, 2021 by weirpig

[sorepaw1]

I know some might be bored with this type of charts.

But I spy a 1068mb high over Greenland at T222hr.

Lots of shower activity, 

I'm certainly not disappointed by tonight's 18z.

It's better than I was expecting. 

A 1068mb high.

Can't remember ever seeing one to be honest..

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by sorepaw1
Spelling

[seabreeze86]

This is just a bonkers chart, don’t think I’ve seen many anything like this 

Edited November 18, 2021 by seabreeze86

[Allseasons-Si]

Broader cold means less margin for error...

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Beer goggles or not...im bloody loving this run.

[Griff]

@Mike Poole second course does look more appealing! 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Beer goggles or not...im bloody loving this run.

Surely in that set up we don’t need crazy cold uppers for snow, although they are probably conducive anyway at -6c for most!! 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

@Mike Poole second course does look more appealing! 

Can we have the gem up to 240 and the GFS after this?

[Updated_Weather]

They call 18z the pub run for a reason and it really shows

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Beer goggles or not...im bloody loving this run.

@MATTWOLVES my money is on the gem sniffing out the solution faster!  

Not a million miles apart give or take 24 hours!

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Surely in that set up we don’t need crazy cold uppers for snow, although they are probably conducive anyway at -6c for most!! 

Pub run T276 uppers are OK!