model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Griff]

Gem is feeling pumped... 

[Bradley in Kent]

I've been there: got emotionally attached to a forecasted cold spell! I imagined scenes of white fluffy snow, no sound but my crunching footsteps, pink sky, lamppost watching, icicles, cold nose, breath hanging in the air. This was January 2016 after the record warm December and I was very hungry for snow. The models had it in, 7 days, 6 days, oooh, 5 days, 4 days, not long now...

...then, 3 days to go, a storm popped up out of nowhere near the Azores, and quickly ended my fantasy dream!

It was a comedown and a half, probably not helped that personally I was facing other issues at the time. 

Since then, I've learnt my lesson. As others say, models are trying to predict something which doesn't even exist yet, based on current data from the immediate past. 

I still love reading them though, especially in interesting times like now!

Edited November 18, 2021 by Bradley in Kent

[damianslaw]

Throw this comment in now 'snow in the UK always a now casting event'.. suspect I'll be repeating myself through the next 4 months..

Please don't get hung up on snow prospects 7 days out, you'll exhaust yourself..

[Griff]

In the meantime the gem is still rolling out... 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

In the meantime the gem is still rolling out... 

Yes, it's similar to the ukmo but without the pesky euro heights... Sometimes ECM and gem are quite close in what they show. Let's hope so for the upcoming run

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, it's similar to the ukmo but without the pesky euro heights... Sometimes ECM and gem are quite close in what they show. Let's hope so for the upcoming run

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Trust me folks while we all are getting ourselves uptight over 7 days ahead,remind yourself that the model I post now is the only timeframe that you can guarantee anything in the UK! 

Serious heads on now for the mighty ECM

[Mike Poole]

Yes, GEM looking good out to T162:

Posts seem a little downbeat but I’m not sure quite why.  There is an envelope of possibilities a week or so hence, and it is still quite wide, and I’m not sure it has changed much, just a couple of op runs throwing out a solution that is towards the poorer end of that envelope.  Let’s see what the ECM thinks.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, GEM looking good out to T162:

Posts seem a little downbeat but I’m not sure quite why.  There is an envelope of possibilities a week or so hence, and it is still quite wide, and I’m not sure it has changed much, just a couple of op runs throwing out a solution that is towards the poorer end of that envelope.  Let’s see what the ECM thinks.

Glad you're here very wise words! 

 

[Updated_Weather]

Guys remember it’s only November. This happens nearly every winter, people get carried away and upset over certain model outputs. Relax. It’s looking good for cold at the very least.. something more winter like IS happening. Snow is always trickiest, and for the most part.. let’s get cold in first before we talk snow, save you’re strength - could be a long winter

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Vadoseflame said:

Guys remember it’s only November. This happens nearly every winter, people get carried away and upset over certain model outputs. Relax. It’s looking good for cold at the very least.. something more winter like IS happening. Snow is always trickiest, and for the most part.. let’s get cold in first before we talk snow, save you’re strength - could be a long winter

Some interesting charts to be had  

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Some interesting charts to be had  

Exactly.. People need to be patient, I mean it is only November and we are already getting charts like these

[Ali1977]

If anyone wants to see charts rivalling 1947 watch the run through around New year onwards on the CFS 9 monthly from yesterday’s 12z - it’s mental

Edited November 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, and quite big differences compared to GFS, much stronger in terms of WAA into Greenland, depth of the marked low,  but reluctance of the UK high to retrogress.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

Nearer to home this ECM looks MUCH better

[sheikhy]

Now thats more like it from ecm at 144 hours!!!

[tight isobar]

The ec 12 going 1 way... cold .. again going with the starker block...

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nearer to home this ECM looks MUCH better

It looks like it could be as good as yesterday with weak eights right accros to the other side of the NH leaving room for more heights, may not work out that way but let’s see!! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Worth pointing out especially for newer members, even if some runs the 850hpa temperatures don't look very impressive remember to check the thickness. From the Met Office site "Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK." Most charts appear to have it at least linking in to part of the tropospheric polar vortex shown over Scandinavia and likely will have thickness levels a bit lower than our standard northerlies, 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, too far west for the south here, fine margins!  Could redeem itself on the next couple of frames?

[bluearmy]

Gem is about as good as we can hope for based on where we currently sit 

1 hour ago, Howie said:

Where did the high over Europe come from 

I think we should call it the ‘Jules ridge’ …. It can catch on like the famous Bartlett 

[markw2680]

So I read some comments in here and thought it was all over and up the garden path again, so I check for myself and wonder what on earth some people are on, all looks great, very rare to be in this position at all during winter let alone before it’s even begun. How many times not every run will be exactly the same for crying out loud. There will be run to run differences but the theme remains the same for it to get much colder with the chance of snow. End of my rant. Over to the more experienced now….

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, too far west for the south here, fine margins!  Could redeem itself on the next couple of frames?

Wow did not expect that at all!!!was expecting it to be further east!what a block around southern greenland!

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, too far west for the south here, fine margins!  Could redeem itself on the next couple of frames?

Conversely Mike looking good for the north 192hrs will be interesting. Still such a wide envelope nothing off the table 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, too far west for the south here, fine margins!  Could redeem itself on the next couple of frames?

Yep but to be honest rather it west than east  i have a feeling it will move east with time   always does