model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Staffmoorlands]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ok, so GFS creates a longer mild gap this time.

It's not that far off previous runs, though?

GFS removes the chance of snow for most of lowland England next week. 
 

Looks okay further north and over high ground

[LRD]

An individual frame, I know, but just want to say that this doesn't show snow but at least it shows some active, interesting weather where the kitchen sink would be thrown at the UK. Better than the sheer tedium we have suffered since mid August

Bring it on regardless of snow or not. And it might be showing that the atmosphere seems set up to produce something more substantially wintry going forward

Last few days model developments have been largely positive so all good

[ICE COLD]

Here’s the T168 UKMO. I’ll let u make ya own minds up

[Howie]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Here’s the T168 UKMO. I’ll let u make ya own minds up

Where did the high over Europe come from 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Here’s the T168 UKMO. I’ll let u make ya own minds up

It's not bad but it ain't great either but could lead to better things. The high is centred a little too far south for my liking though

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Here’s the T168 UKMO. I’ll let u make ya own minds up

Dont want the ukmo at all!!that is danger right there with heights to the sourh east!!also not as amplified near canada and western greenland like gfs!!

[topo]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Here’s the T168 UKMO. I’ll let u make ya own minds up

 

 

Seems pretty similar to ICON's 168 

[Day 10]

A real mixed bag of views, I'll throw one in. It's still only the 18th of November.

The fact that we could end up with rain, hail, sleet, snow & gale force northerly winds. I'd take that to start any Winter!

Plenty of room for upgrades & downgrades yet.

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

Where did the high over Europe come from 

I keep saying this over and over again,look eastward

[ICE COLD]

P2 is at it again

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've just been sent in by the meditation police,apparently we are getting to stressed and uptight over events upstream that ain't taken place yet! Matt they said...its 3 weeks from winter yet,calm them all down...do your stuff!

Send them some fi snow charts....spread the love...

Hand on Heart I think we are in a better position so far at this stage than we have been for ages!

Come on gang let's enjoy whatever the runs put out...even when rogue.

 

[jules216]

Even touch of reds appearing around Greece now on mean who said we cant get above average heights in Europe despite Huge Atlantic blocking, i have seen some seasonal models showing precisely this 

[ANYWEATHER]

A real sense of amusement when I was reading some of the comments on here. As regards snow next week, let's get the cold in first, then talk about the Snow.  2010 was a fine example of this case here where I live in Worcestershire.  Computer models and even the Met office model never forecast snow on a picticular day in December about two weeks or so before Christmas for my location, can't tell you the exact date as I've not got my weather records with me. But up until two weeks before Christmas it was fridgid cold but bone dry and the forecast was still bone dry for where I live...it started snowing at minus 1c and by the time it finished it was minus 3c with 9 inches of snow......Moto ,  don't get hung up on snow cover forecasts, they can be wrong write down to zero...

[fromey]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GFS removes the chance of snow for most of lowland England next week. 
 

Looks okay further north and over high ground

Snow for the south on the GFS  That was never going to happen 

[Northwest NI]

On 18/11/2021 at 17:00, jules216 said:

I keep saying this over and over again,look eastward

Jules you’re dragging me down, man

[Eagle Eye]

Don't go for snow forecasts until we get to the cold, it's such a hard thing to forecast 

For example - the SSW earlier this year

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Even touch of reds appearing around Greece now on mean who said we cant get above average heights in Europe despite Huge Atlantic blocking, i have seen some seasonal models showing precisely this 

You should have mentioned this before mate

[Mucka]

So yeah, quite a difference between UKMO and GFS by day 7 upstream.

UKMO would be preferable for deeper cold but GFS would have much more associated precipitation while mixing out the colder uppers with warm sectors.

Thereafter is too far in FI but both look capable of sustaining a colder than average pattern.

I would say GFS is probably closer and it models heights around SW Greenland better than ECM or UKM at these sort of time frames though ont he flip side UKMO and ECM tend to be better with upstream longwave pattern.

Either way it going to get a lot colder though the final week of November with rain, sleet and snow around. Perhaps not the classic deep cold with ice days we prefer with lying snow but quite well below average and snow for some likely.

[swfc]

On 18/11/2021 at 16:56, topo said:

Seems pretty similar to ICON's 168 

You guys need to calm down , run to run varients chill Winston it's only November man

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all, still on course for a prolonged cold period GFS  /U.K. Met have different scenarios 

at 168 hrs which will alter at 120 hrs.The key for cold weather to continue is the high pressure to our west /northwest 

and at present looking solid so a very wintery mix with anything possible,going to need some keen watching 

on low pressure system’s which I feel will be to our east tracking down from the north may or may not 

influence us depending on how far the high pressure retrogression to the west occurs.

[booferking]

27 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I keep saying this over and over again,look eastward

Don't need to look east when you have a Northerly directly over your head when living in the North.

[Snowman.]

If the ridge can hold you are likely to get multiple attempts, every attempt could increase the chance of getting a sustained Greenie block espeically if the low heights begin drain from the pole and towards Europe/Russia. Keeping the euro trough, even if the ridge collapse will always give us chances.

 

 

[Methuselah]

I really don't get the downbeat nature of so many posts. Whatever the models show has no influence on what the weather does. None at all!

[Man With Beard]

55 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GFS removes the chance of snow for most of lowland England next week. 
 

Looks okay further north and over high ground

We're running a fine line for the south even with the better runs, though? The latest GFS run says "not quite" but it isn't miles off.

[tight isobar]

people talking of snow at 4-7 days out.. in the uk - it’s comparable to taking a blind man ona sightseeing holiday @ pointless