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Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

tight isobar

By tight isobar
in Forecast Model Discussion

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)

Let's see where these runs sit in their suites

 eh?

Edited by joggs
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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted
On 18/11/2021 at 16:21, Nick2373 said:

Is that always the case in the UK, default setting looks good then come the down grades.

Yes unfortunately 

Noticeably less amplified  

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Staffmoorlands Community Regular

Staffmoorlands

Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
Posted

12z GFS basically says ‘no’ to anything wintry next week for the majority of the UK. Anything exciting looks to be reserved for 10 days away now

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

No thanks, lets hope the others / gefs  do not follow . 

C3496318-31B4-4984-9599-D21639F1837A.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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BurwellWeatherWatch Enthusiast

BurwellWeatherWatch

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup and lack of posts says it all!slowly becoming a non starter!over to the ecm to close this snooze fest!!!

or folks may be waiting for the run to come out, so as to present a balanced view rather than a slew of posts contradicting each other...

the bigger picture continues to look pretty interesting for next week. GFS fine in the grand scheme of things. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Come on guys...run to run differences are guaranteed...for me,yes its less amplified...but look where a segment of the vortex appears to be dropping! And look again at the position of the main vortex lobe is situated! It's well East! Further chances of striking gold further down the line.

gfsnh-0-192.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

T198 06z & 12z 

bit like my front room. Not much in it. Apart from run to run slight differences. Matt beat me.

ECA98B68-ACE6-43D0-AD25-E7FC830BACC0.png

0724A179-99E2-480B-A11F-791E43F58B92.png

Edited by That ECM
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Polar. Aficionado

Polar.

Posted
Posted (edited)

Once bitten twice shy. We don't have much limbs left. The trend has been the high heading further south away from Greenland. And now it looks a bit meh and getting pushed out further in to FI.  Even if ecm looks good later I'd have my reservations after the latest GFS/UKMO

Edited by Polar.
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T198 06z & 12z 

bit like my front room. Not much in it. Apart from run to run slight differences. Matt beat me.

ECA98B68-ACE6-43D0-AD25-E7FC830BACC0.png

0724A179-99E2-480B-A11F-791E43F58B92.png

Sorry but there the same run. Actual 12z below.

image.thumb.png.acdddec5f2c38cc92e4560b23b85ddd6.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

Sorry but there the same run. Actual 12z below.

image.thumb.png.acdddec5f2c38cc92e4560b23b85ddd6.png

That’ll be why there’s little in it then. iPhone is not as easy as iPad.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

Not really seeing the issues here. The UKMO T144 isn't far removed from the ECM mean at that time, and we know how that turned out. The GFS is probably a little too enthusiastic with energy between T120 and T144 (because that's just what it does), but I don't think it will make that much difference to what comes 48 hours later for the UK.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Long time since I've posted in here or this forum at all for that matter. After watching the models for a good few years now, I've seen this happen all too often especially when it comes to a low dropping south over the UK, it is a tricky evolution for the models to handle. Without doubt the upcoming setup doesn't look quite as promising now judging by the deterministic models however, the ensembles still look very good and I wonder whether we may end up with a middle ground between what we saw on the models 2-3 days ago and what we're seeing on the models this evening. Definitely wouldn't be out of the question to see the models correct back closer to what they were showing before.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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1947s coming Enthusiast

1947s coming

Posted
  • Location: North Sheffield
  • Location: North Sheffield
Posted

It’s really funny here one run out of how many and it’s changed from the last one so the gfs is 100% correct now winters over over to the ecm to show the complete opposite. It’s just bumps along the road . Oh and its not even proper  winter yet . Let’s see what the models say this time next Thursday everything could and probably will change if the high does actually set up 

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

This is why I'd like to see the high a little further eastwards in the Greenland area. Still too far west for my liking!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

Lots are downbeat, I think it still looks great and prolonged at day 10. More really cold shots possible . I’m sure you’d all have lost the plot and been buzzing if that showed up in FI 2 weeks ago

3EF63685-E7D3-46F6-BF00-CAD67244D696.png

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