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Model output discussion - closing in on Winter


tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Extraordinary stuff this morning!!.. I look forward to the round shell supporting for this suite . And await the euro with baited breath...

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Chart of the day so far? We await ECMWF.

    138074002_Screenshot2021-11-18at05_52_08.thumb.png.46acf16c2b5fbf4119969c71f2a2cffe.png

    I think this cold snap, whether it lasts 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months is still going to give people a jolt. We have been lulled into mild weather and there is a properly cold spell on the way.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    To be honest I’m pretty speechless from what I’ve seen from the GFS this morning. Then add to that the UKMO which was an absolute pearler. 

    I feared the worst when I saw the ICON.
     

     

    Just waking up or rather still half asleep here, I'm trying to make sense of all this... 

    So a potential transient cold shot for a week's time (next Thursday). 

    gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.d18502f150f415a6af8e010f639fcc26.png

     

    But loses the plot thereafter? 

    gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.d6c7112d213da40a6cc6f712ed8ac39b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, snow
  • Location: Sheffield
    On 18/11/2021 at 05:45, knocker said:

    Am I missing something here . As I see the gfs this morning, as the Atlantic high pressure does not ridge that far north, the jet is flatter and thus resulting in the very cold air just giving the UK a glancing blow. This has always  been a  knife edge scenario and it is not over yet by any means

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-7884800.thumb.png.2d079a10983b37d604cda932431909ce.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7928000.thumb.png.8e738d0849702a1518c769b718a8ab7c.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom-7928000.thumb.png.d0cb130f3f5cb34df9b6a59f63b4b90d.png

    True, but the op is one of the few that ends the cold abruptly and the ensemble mean (and main clustering) is far more encouraging for deeper and more prolonged cold  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    @sheikhy will be happy with the westward adjustment, 192 could be an epic chart

    IT's more like the GFS run - modifies the flow out to the WNW over the sea and starts to cuts the very cold air off.

    image.thumb.png.b757601e134fb2c3c41d6d20d50e462d.pngimage.thumb.png.866fe6fcf275d57494014e261c856b4a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Good output this morning. All of them on a similar page. Ukmo t144 and t168 are most impressive. 
     

    to be fair it’s a variation on a theme and the theme is cool/cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    True but it's alot colder air and less modified than the GFS

    Are going to get a slicing high through northern Canada ala GFS i wonder 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    On 18/11/2021 at 06:43, mb018538 said:

    IT's more like the GFS run - modifies the flow out to the WNW over the sea and starts to cuts the very cold air off.

    image.thumb.png.b757601e134fb2c3c41d6d20d50e462d.pngimage.thumb.png.866fe6fcf275d57494014e261c856b4a.png

    What we need to take heed of, is the momentum of the vertical block!! @ west Greenland @example .. the prognosis is @possibly that waa in direct punching into the forementioned @ latter timeframes is fraught, with west -to east blocking correctness. We now have nearly cross model concepts of vertically positioning.. and that has complete wiggle room for expanse in either.. or both parts ...nearer to time frame/fruition!.. and for me leaves a deciphering of raw modelling to gage the outcome. And you’ll see this as near as today’s latter suites when “again” the momentum try’s re- tuning the by now block format..in the Atlantic.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.2d33c6f29ef635ff965c0867721b3568.pngimage.thumb.png.af324f1b597430c2a568ec581d43aa3a.png

    A few snow showers knocking around (especially N/W Scotland), but away from high ground it looks to be a 'dry old do' on the 00z ECM op run at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton on Trent
  • Location: Burton on Trent

    A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Looking more cold snap than cold spell this morning unless UKMO is right which puts up a more robust Greenland block compared to the rest of the models. Any 2010 comparisons remain off the mark for now but plenty of time for change. GEFS ensembles have us heading back toward average temperatures quite quickly but I’m unconvinced by much beyond 144/168, evolution looks overblown from the west to me. Least there’s something to talk about! 
    gfs-lincoln-gb-53n-05w.thumb.png.23445164d0fbdafd544b59fef150892e.png

    Edited by supernova
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