model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Tom Clarke]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Morning, where and what in you opinion is going to end the cool/cold next Friday? Unless you’re micro analysing 850’s 8 days away I’m not sure why you have come to that conclusion. Look at the jet stream.

A warm front is moving in from the West bringing rain next Friday, shown on both the ECM and GFS.

[Ali1977]

GFS Control, GFS Op and ECM all a little too far west for that prolonged deep cold. The GFS Control has -12c uppers next Thurs but quickly drops the prolonged deep cold look about it, I imagine. The UKMO looks good at T168 but that may do the same by day 10.

The GEFS mean also flattens quickly after day 10!! 

Still turning v cold late next week regardless which is good and we all would have taken these charts at this point a few weeks back , but hoping for an Eastward shift again on the 12z.

 

[EML Network]

Regardless of the outcome next week what a refreshing change it is to be looking at a potential cold spell with snow potential before winter officially starts. 

Normally were left waiting until mid December or later before going through the model emotional rollercoaster rides. 

I lean towards looking at the ''mean'' pressure charts on the GFS these days as opposed to taking any one run at face value when it comes to anything more than +T96 and I think the following chart gives us a better indication as to what MIGHT come to pass. 

GFS Mean at +168

the HLB is about 400 miles further North than you see it on the ECM OP at the same time frame. 

If we look at the ECM 00Z at +144 you can see what a complex set up we have and it really could go in any number of directions thereafter. 

What we have going in our favour this time around is that LP system close to the Azores I think that is a classic -NAO signal (correct me someone if I am wrong) and it's preventing the High from flattening in combination with a LP over central Spain, which means even if the ECM is on the money there would likely be a few more roles of the dice.

Plenty of reasons to be optomistic IMO

Edited November 18, 2021 by EML Network

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yep we’ve too many miles on the clock and seen it all before!

Less of a concern on the overnight ops but not checked the ens yet 

[Beanz]

7 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

A warm front is moving in from the West bringing rain next Friday, shown on both the ECM and GFS.

Can you post the charts that go with this, otherwise it’s difficult for the rest of us to see what you’re referring to exactly.  Thanks 

[sheikhy]

Happy with the morning runs!things have trended further west again!!ukmo is a beauty and gfs and ecm much improved!!just keep an eye out on residual energy over southwestern tip of greenland on ecm at 120 hours!!was not hanging back as much yesterday and i think thats the reason the ecm does not go and show the the beauty of the ukmo at 144 hours and get heights even further into greenland!!

[Kasim Awan]

I think people's expectations from 2010 and 2018 are causing them to underestimate the significance of the current model output. The blocking patterns forecast in the mid term look very promising, that mid Atlantic ridge has hallmarks of a long term feature. Not every cold spell will come from a screaming -12 850hpa easterly. Those spells with a moderated Atlantic input on a nw-se trajectory whilst maintaining a weak NE flow (like shown for days 7 to 12) can still be just as fruitful from a snow perspective.

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, carinthian said:

I hope that is where we are heading. Best chart tonight is UKMO extended that would keep any wrap around warmer uppers well out of sight. Can see lower heights into Central Europe with a snowy NEly to evolve into Blighty. 

C

Morning all. Hope UKMO extended chart is on the ball. The high orientation much better positioned to deliver some extended cold in to Blighty and Western Europe. You would expect those short waves showing over Norway to drop south. However, in comparison , especially the latest GFS run has some wrap around warmer air uppers forming from the circle of uncertainty, I mentioned previously. We are getting close now to get some consistency in the runs. Lets hope from a cold prospective that GFS soon realigns that high better as doubt remains this morning. One thing I am concerned is about the cold getting watered down.  Lets see how the day develops with more runs ! Keep the faith snow/cold lovers.

C

[mountain shadow]

Lol. I looked at this morning's runs  thought, not bad at all. Come on here and it's doom and gloom.

For the end of November.  These are excellent charts.

As some mentioned yesterday,  this was never going to be another 2010.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think people's expectations from 2010 and 2018 are causing them to underestimate the significance of the current model output. The blocking patterns forecast in the mid term look very promising, that mid Atlantic ridge has hallmarks of a long term feature. Not every cold spell will come from a screaming -12 850hpa easterly. Those spells with a moderated Atlantic input on a nw-se trajectory whilst maintaining a weak NE flow (like shown for days 7 to 12) can still be just as fruitful from a snow perspective.

Morning Kasim, nice to see you back posting, very welcomed. 

100% agree with your take on this. Each event is different, and recent meridional charts are more interesting to me than endless zonal west to east. 

I'm surprised by how dry this autumn has been in general. 

I'd expect a few more flips in the days to come. 

 

[SLEETY]

Like the end of ECM with very cold uppers over the Arctic heading South. 

I have lived through countless winters with uppers never even close to the end of the ECM being shown the entire winter.,nevermind Autumn! 

[Singularity]

Not convinced by model runs that bring the low from Canada across as one large entity - the tall Greenland ice sheet ought to interfere enough that the low breaks down into smaller systems.

To me, it’s a rare example of a cleaner outcome being less desirable - a mid-term sacrifice for uncertain longer-term gain.

[markw2680]

I think pretty much all of the models are just showing a variety of pretty much the same theme. It’s going to turn much colder with the chance of snow about. That’s about all the details we can say at this stage and I think most on here including myself would jump at that. Looking for the end of any spell/snap at this stage is daft as it’s going to change on a hourly basis 

[Andypvfc]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Lol. I looked at this morning's runs  thought, not bad at all. Come on here and it's doom and gloom.

For the end of November.  These are excellent charts.

As some mentioned yesterday,  this was never going to be another 2010.

I don't want another 2010. Yeah the Cold was OK, but I hardly saw a flake of Snow in North Staffs / South Cheshire. In fact we had more Snow last year.

[sheikhy]

Jheeez thats a beaut of a an ecm mean!!locked and loaded with snow and cold from the north/north east!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Jheeez thats a beaut of a an ecm mean!!locked and loaded with snow and cold from the north/north east!

It’s great at 192, but is that also showing the push West by 216? 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Am I missing something here . As I see the gfs this morning, as the Atlantic high pressure does not ridge that far north, the jet is flatter and thus resulting in the very cold air just giving the UK a glancing blow. This has always  been a  knife edge scenario and it is not over yet by any means

was a bit surprised myself by the strongly positive response in here …… maybe the thread is maturing ! 

[Frosty.]

There’s more snow on the Gfs 0z op charts than we saw during the whole of last winter..yep, quite a downgrade!   

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s great at 192, but is that also showing the push West by 216? 

Not sure how others will interpret this, with regards to whether the mean disguises a trend to more of an Atlantic influence, but certainly at first glance seems to maintain the northerly... 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[BARRY]

same old same old

[jules216]

And back to rain for central Europe. Westward push incredible, in past it used to always correct eastward, now the opposite. Cant wait to see all these pictures of burried Alps on Severe weather Europe site  not!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

13 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think pretty much all of the models are just showing a variety of pretty much the same theme. It’s going to turn much colder with the chance of snow about. That’s about all the details we can say at this stage and I think most on here including myself would jump at that. Looking for the end of any spell/snap at this stage is daft as it’s going to change on a hourly basis 

Yes I agree there sister however we're beginning to see repeated attempts to bring a peice of the vortex from the northeast over the UK, the very low thickness values attached with that combined with even modest uppers of - 5   850's could bring lots of snow, even 850s of - 4 may be enough due to the low thickness values, what we don't want is too much mild air bought down inside it which can happen, nothings ever cut and dry with UK winters, but if we can combine cold uppers with deep thickness values we could well be in for a very special treat but details vary from run to run at this stage but the Atlantic looks dead in the water for late November which is great news for early winter ps my heel is in bits from last night's footie mark! 

[jules216]

There comes the western Russian/Eastern Europe high again, trough slowly looses cold potential and apart from western Scandi and Alps all get rain, cold rain typical of "modern" winters

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

was a bit surprised myself by the strongly positive response in here …… maybe the thread is maturing ! 

I think its more to do with what is on offer at the moment. Something far more seasonal than what we have experienced at this time of year compared to the last 11 years. 

[Man With Beard]

Fantastic outputs for late November again, but it's probably worth continually reinforcing messages to avoid a meltdown when the nation isn't blanketed in white.

 

First, you really do need perfect synoptics at this time of year to get snow to southern areas (less problematic further north), and even nearly perfect synoptics might just not be cold enough especially south of M4.

 

Second, a northerly itself is no guarantee of widespread snow away from northern and western coasts, or certain favoured set ups. Northerlies need an extra element to bring snow through the spine of the country; fronts or mini-lows can do it, or a low running from Iceland into very cold air.

 

Sorry not trying to be a kill joy but people do get worked up when they don't wake up to a winter wonderland, so good to start with the right expectations.