model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, too far west for the south here, fine margins!  Could redeem itself on the next couple of frames?

Yes, nice to see along with gem what the "options" are at this time frame, aside from doom and gloom  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Wow did not expect that at all!!!was expecting it to be further east!what a block around southern greenland!

Yes, the shape of it our undoing here, I think.  One thing that I have noticed compared to yesterday is that the width of the encroaching region of cold air from the north seems narrower (for whatever reason) giving less margin for error, either side.  Maybe that’s a thing, maybe not?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come to papa 

[sheikhy]

I will take the ecm this evening!that is some serious orange circle in the atlantic!!

[Nick_Somerset]

Really enjoy reading and learning from the forum. A great place to understand charts and predictions. 

Although with all the science and maps on hand  there is one model we need to consider, sods law. 

So here it is... high fuel price, low gas reserves and worries about keeping the country supplied. So according to the law we will have one of the coldest winters on record...sods law

Thank you again all on this forum who are far more technical and in the know than me. Keep the models coming . 

[Griff]

Not to be sniffed at

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[bluearmy]

Impressive traction on the Atlantic ridge compared to other models at day 7 ec op 

the p/v segment over Canada headed back towards the pole - I’m intrigued by the polar pattern we could end up with come the end of the month ….

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Griff said:

Not to be sniffed at

It is if you’re near or south of the M4, I just think this run has not got a clean evolution and the cold air is blocked off by the angle of attack, compared to GEM which was spot on. 

[sheikhy]

Did not expect that at 168 hours from ecm and thats putting it lightly!!expected a smoother transition of cold into the continent!!where did that low come from!!!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Impressive traction on the Atlantic ridge compared to other models at day 7 ec op 

the p/v segment over Canada headed back towards the pole - I’m intrigued by the polar pattern we could end up with come the end of the month ….

Yes, there is definitely a jam tomorrow aspect of all of this, whatever happens with the initial northerly incursion a week from now…

[Griff]

Reload? 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[blizzard81]

I think the word 'messy' sums up the ecm op tonight. 

[bluearmy]

Can’t see this op run being in a decent size cluster but it again shows how difficult next week is to predict …… 

[sheikhy]

Defo backward step tonight!!!!hopefully different come morning!!!to have all that blocking and get nothing out of it on ecm!!what a waste!!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Reload? 

That mighty atlantic high beginning to lose its grip though. 

 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Did not expect that at 168 hours from ecm and thats putting it lightly!!expected a smoother transition of cold into the continent!!where did that low come from!!!

I think - and it is difficult to be sure because of the 24 hour time steps - that it was part of a multiple low system at T120, that I highlighted at the time was deeper, a piece of this seems to break off at T144 and phase with the low coming down on the northerly T168, pulling it west.

[topo]

The so-called model agreement for a cold invasion in Europe at 216 hours during the previous days has been crashed.

Good to remember that in the future. Even if the models agree, 200+ hours are a century ahead.

But what a change according to ECM!! Still impressive, instead of colder conditions the entire continent, even Denmark, gets warmer ones!!

Edited November 18, 2021 by topo

[mulzy]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I think the word 'messy' sums up the ecm op tonight. 

Yes, not a fan of this ECM run.  The classic limpet low to the S/SW of the UK wrecking any chance of CAA.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Reload? 

That’s a really cold reload, I just don’t think this is anywhere near resolved 

[blizzard81]

The dreaded west based neg nao rearing its ugly head again on that ecm op. 

[TSNWK]

On 18/11/2021 at 18:49, Griff said:

Reload? 

Sensentational northern hemisphere profile. The whole core of the vortex east of the meridian... Atlantic dead.. but.. we still manage to draw in a slack southerly component on that frame.. but it looks loads for something big...

[January Snowstorm]

We are on the cusp of something special. I think FI right now is about 144hrs. The following chart is less than a week off and it doesn't get much better than that

 

[tight isobar]

On 18/11/2021 at 18:53, Ali1977 said:

That’s a really cold reload, I just don’t think this is anywhere near resolved 

Nowhere near classic miss- modelling as with anytime a cold spell/snap is incurring. S,all good in the hood  as far as I’m concerned.. plenty of resolve yet.

Edited November 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Yes, not a fan of this ECM run.  The classic limpet low to the S/SW of the UK wrecking any chance of CAA.

Indeed. It couldn't have been placed any better to scupper things. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. 

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the word 'messy' sums up the ecm op tonight. 

I can think of a few other words for it but I don't want to get banned

Having said that, the above chart at 240hrs ties in very nicely with the Met Office extended forecast. High to the W and SW dragging down a NW'ly. Not a classic pattern but might generate some wintriness at times. Obviously more so in Scotland, NW Wales and Northern Ireland

Edited November 18, 2021 by LRD