model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Methuselah]

Hey, guys, is that PC McGarry?    It's been a long day!

[offerman]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Round 2 anyone

It finishes shall we say..chilly...and at least the vortex looks less organised than GFS..so gem and ecm win the day.

What we really need is that stubborn area of high pressure to the west of Spain to either  migrate further westwards or northward of its position on your screenshots. There is such a mass of cold air built up to the North and North/East but, as ever that high pressure system must be one the most powerful deflectors of our cold weather over so many years.

If that high could become vertical in nature then great, but elongated where it is doesn't help cold or prolonged cold prospects. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Matt, here’s spaghetti:

Here’s ravioli;

The plot you posted looks a bit like one of them, and not at all like the other?

If you’ve fallen out of love with the word spaghetti, maybe you could use the word string.

It was actually light hearted banter Mike.

But in future I will be calling them the pasta plots! Being as they're all the same family.

[damianslaw]

Interesting to view EC 30 day outlook and beyond fir possible emerging trends longer term. Seems to fit in with latest met office update which suggests a signal for mid Atlantic heights to sink as we move through early part of December but not far enough south to let in a pronounced change.. westerly for a time before heights build back north through UK inching further north as the month wears on.. anticyclonic and increased chance of colder conditions second half of month. 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It was actually light hearted banter Mike.

But in future I will be calling them the pasta plots! Being as they're all the same family.

Banter from me too!  No the thing is they are not of the same family, the family is stringy things, not pasta.  Even ‘Silly String’.  

Ever see this on a Meteociel ensembles chart?

Mods, please move us on if this has got too off topic!

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM looks good all the way to 240 hrs I like the high pressure ridging north on the 240 hrs but in the 

guessing zone.At the present 144 hrs is in question but in my opinion the Azores high needs to ridge north 

to rubber stamp a prolonged cold spell,nothing much happening in the Atlantic so strong possibility 

of high pressure rising more into mid Atlantic to allow this northerly airstream to continue.

All eyes in the mean time on Saturday for some of the white stuff fingers crossed.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Just a quick mention on that...it may tie in with Exters thoughts today,but that was more along the line of there thoughts beyond December! The idea was for colder spells through next month...so any output showing milder and zonal right now is just noise...and not necessarily the signs of a big pattern change. Plus it's far to far away to give that much worry right now.

I think the op runs this evening were less amplified than the 00z runs of this morning in the medium term. We've seen over the years that a certain set of runs on any particular day are more amplified compared to another set during the same day. However, I remember it used to be the 12z runs that were more amplified followed by much flatter 00z runs. This is the other way round today. 

[sorepaw1]

The 18z at T27 hr.

Anyone noticed the love shaped heart 1044mb high pressure..

Yes I love you too GFS,  

But I'd love you more if you stuck around..

Only fun.

[blizzard81]

That's quite some chart at 3 days out and a slight improvement on the old one imo. 

[More Runs Needed]

The LP looks slightly further east so far on the 18z

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

The LP looks slightly further east so far on the 18z

Yes, slightly colder than last run and plenty of snow chances still around the U.K. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Ali1977

[Tim Bland]

Similar to ECM for snow on Fri night / sat, a bit later and more realistic totals 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Similar to ECM for snow on Fri night / sat, a bit later and more realistic totals 

Very similar to ecm except ecm has more widespread accumulations!

[booferking]

The 2nd Northerly day 7/8 looking more amplified towards Greenland let's see how this one fairs out.

[weirpig]

Although the low will move around a little over the next few days  so its difficult to pinpoint exactly the location which will be the sweet spot    but winds now are really ramping up on some of the models  Icon showing 100mph winds    very very dangerous

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very similar to ecm except ecm has more widespread accumulations!

I think difference isn’t that the ECM is more total falling snow and GFS shows what would be laying. Expecting it to struggle to settle Initially away from highest ground  

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think difference isn’t that the ECM is more total falling snow and GFS shows what would be laying. Expecting it to struggle to settle Initially away from highest ground  

Might be helpful if it happens during the night in terms of settling snow?!!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Might be helpful if it happens during the night in terms of settling snow?!!

I think most places that have precip sat morning will have a good chance it fatals as snow, in fact likely blizzard like condition. Anywhere where it lies may get some little drifts in those winds!! 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I think most places that have precip sat morning will have a good chance it fatals as snow, in fact likely blizzard like condition. Anywhere where it lies may get some little drifts in those winds!! 

Dew points look bang on as well!!!

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Although the low will move around a little over the next few days  so its difficult to pinpoint exactly the location which will be the sweet spot    but winds now are really ramping up on some of the models  Icon showing 100mph winds    very very dangerous

Even some central areas getting 70mph+ gusts on this run, from an unusual northerly direction. This is going to be nasty. But sweet spot may shift. Probably not enough to miss the UK entirely though.

[tight isobar]

Away from the weekend shenanigans.- for now.. that’s some serious re-belly flopping ens.. haven’t had time to post much last few days.. but I’m sure many of us- myself included, will be steadfast from tomorrow . Enjoy your evening.. albeit a chilly 1

[damianslaw]

No comments on 18z well barely any.. must be showing a return to mild.. alas in the semi reliable it maintains a generally chilly NW flow but signal for heights to collapse south in time. I'm expecting this to be the direction of travel early Dec but for heights to surge north through UK quickly.. this high we've had since August is going nowhere!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not liking the trends in the mid to longer range now. TPV really cranking up and I suspect that coupling is about to occur between the strat and trop.

This is something I feared may happen a week or so back when I mentioned the same thing happening in 2016. That was also after a failed Greenland HP.

The CFS output for Dec-Feb has also trended to horrific.

Edited November 24, 2021 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not liking the trends in the mid to longer range now. TPV really cranking up and I suspect that coupling is about to occur between the strat and trop.

This is something I feared may happen a week or so back when I mentioned the same thing happening in 2016. That was also after a failed Greenland HP.

The CFS output for Dec-Feb has also trended to horrific.

Yes,something somewhere seems to have changed .GFS seems to be trending  +NAO the last number of runs  ,Exeter have pretty gone the same way for Dec ...

Are we about to see coupling ?

Certainly EC 46 will be interesting tomorrow because the model only Monday was depicting a dry perhaps cold December ...

 

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes,something somewhere seems to have changed .GFS seems to be trending  +NAO the last number of runs  ,Exeter have pretty gone the same way for Dec ...

Are we about to see coupling ?

Certainly EC 46 will be interesting tomorrow because the model only Monday was depicting a dry perhaps cold December ...

 

Yep, whilst its too early to be too worried, it is certainly a concerning trend since the 12z runs yesterday. I wonder if the MJO forecast for early Dec has flipped to low amplitude again. The models have clearly seen something over the last 24 hours.