Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[The Northern Ramper]

8 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi I am actually in Central Scotland at 428 ft and sleet at best forecast , hoping this is wrong but met office forecasts for my area have been good regarding will it snow or not

Cheers 

 

John 

I think I read that as Cambridge, apologies

[mulzy]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I do love these 'vintage' charts! And, there's even a smidgen of hope that EA & SE might see a wee bit of the white stuff, if that air from the east is dry enough?

    

I wonder if the fabled 'westward correction' will happen this time!?

UKMO (a very good model) says no sadly.  Let's see where ECM fits before making the final call but it looks trough disruption scenario is the outsider at the moment.

[Day 10]

The block continuing to put up a fight, the cold really isn't far away...

[Norrance]

Hi guys, please use the moans, ramp and chat thread for general chat and stick to the models in this one. 
Thanks.

[Methuselah]

Sledges away; barbecues at the ready!   

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sledges away; barbecues at the ready!   

Maybe all change on next run. When there is an Easterly we normally go in to a southerly .

[Daniel*]

Not sold on mid term let alone beyond that. Latest run from GFS brings in deeper cold closer from east, Europe is also colder, perhaps it is being shoved out too readily.

06z 12z

[Norrance]

31 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Hi guys, please use the moans, ramp and chat thread for general chat and stick to the models in this one. 
Thanks.

Since I posted this a couple more off topic posts appeared and have been moved. Please stick to the models.

[Cold Winter Night]

It looks like whatever is going to happen between now 120h and 300h, which at this moment looks NAO+/zonal, after that Scandi blocking will appear on the scene one way or another.

EPS extended clusters have it, GEFS perturbations, and now GFS 12z again. No promises, but very interesting.

[minus10]

Yes, well it almost always seems inevitable that this sort of synoptic arrangement seems to get itself into gear in the lead up to christmas...as per gfs12z

Not really a jetstream pattern you want to see.

After the taster of cold  recently it always seems to flatter to deceive. However still a signal for renewed height rises to east/ north east towards latter stages of run , perhaps in line with MJO into '7'

Perhaps all is not lost then...would just be nice to have some sort of cold at Christmas even if just a bit of frost. Goes well with a log fire...

 

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by minus10

[Griff]

Latest gem is a bit more interesting... 

Currently at 150 hours

[Nick F]

12z GFS F.I. shaping up nicely right at the end, as you'd might expect in response to the lag of MJO moving into phase 7. Nice Scandi block building and the Atlantic energy disrupting against it to the west. Would then see deep cold wrapping around the southern flank of the Scandi high. It'll be gone on the next run no doubt, but I think this direction seems feasible. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The development of a continental flow and a potential battleground scenario in the mid term happens around day four and questions on whether low pressure can clear south east and separate from the trough.

UKMO

The UKMO does not do this and as such fronts can clear east of the U.K. with a fairly cool west to north west flow for the rest of the run.

GFS

 

The GFS gets warm air advection between the clearing low and the following system, this allow the high to back a little westwards and develop a continental flow behind that low.

Given the continued pressure from low heights to the north west I do t know how long any battleground could last but of course we could easily see some marginal snow events if the block to the north east could hold influence.

[Hotspur62]

 

Growing support for the block to the east getting stronger.My feel for things is next week will be generally cool and wet with snow for those 150-200m asl from midlands northwards.Then think we will have 3-4 days where temperatures will be slightly above average and then from around 17th things will turn colder with frost becoming more widespread.Think MJO will be moving into phase 7 by then.Just my take on things using past experience of being an avid fan of this forum for 8 years or so and my interpretation of things.Incidentally the map above shows USA Predominantly mild and settle if the above was to happen and devoid of cold air for many areas-not that often that happens at this time of the year.Really this year has been a very strange year weather wise and think NW Europe will have a cold time between mid December-mid January with temps below average.There you go I have jinxed it now

[Daniel*]

45 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO (a very good model) says no sadly.  Let's see where ECM fits before making the final call but it looks trough disruption scenario is the outsider at the moment.

Arguable chops and changes more often than GFS at day 5-6 in my experience, I can’t tell you how many times already it has done a 180. It is a model which has fallen from grace, I don’t think it’s fit for purpose in 2021, the stats might show GFS is inferior model but again treat Northern Hemisphere skill data with caution, we are a tiny part of Hemisphere and of course the N Atlantic adds to complication, the model is too clean sometimes GFS is too “messy” but you’ll find it is nearer to the truth. Also American model seems to actually be worked on and improved… Exeter’s UKMO model it’s been left idle, clear their budget doesn’t allow it, we are being let down.

 

 

[Methuselah]

The end of the 12Z shows some hope, IMO: it would be a very opportune time for the TPV to oscillate westward allowing some deep cold to come southward around the Scandi block and eventually filter west toward Blighty? Maybe? Perhaps?

    

[Mike Poole]

MOGREPS 6z take at T72 - still huge uncertainty on the track and intensity of this thing at just 3 days:

Edited December 4, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Eagle Eye]

On 04/12/2021 at 16:15, Nick F said:

Will further Atlantic trough disruptions follow thanks to the Scandi/Ural block?

 

 

 

 

 

We're going to have to wait and see but I suspect there will be, blocking will probably continue with the pattern we're currently in in terms of Oscillation and the SSW impact strengthening in Winter. I heard before that La Niña favours an early Winter so perhaps lasting until January but now we're really into guessing time anyway that's enough from me.

Xander

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo 168

hard to see the bigger picture at day 7 but we need to see a break in  the Atlantic,desperately...

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z GFS F.I. shaping up nicely right at the end, as you'd might expect in response to the lag of MJO moving into phase 7. Nice Scandi block building and the Atlantic energy disrupting against it to the west. Would then see deep cold wrapping around the southern flank of the Scandi high. It'll be gone on the next run no doubt, but I think this direction seems feasible. 

the NH profile which continues to show in fi gfs ops and plenty of gefs members (splits and/or HLB) isn’t one which you’d expect to see based on all the recent talk of spv/tpv coupling 

whilst we may see  the possible fight between Atlantic jet and scandi block come to an effective wintry nought for most, the silver lining is likely to be wave 1 or possible wave 2 if a pacific ridge is also thrown ….

Edited December 4, 2021 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the NH profile which continues to show in fi gfs ops and plenty of gefs members (splits and/or HLB) isn’t one which you’d expect to see based on all the recent talk of spv/tpv coupling 

whilst we may see  the possible fight between Atlantic jet and scandi block come to an effective wintry nought for most, the silver lining is likely to be wave 1 or possible wave 2 if a pacific ridge is also thrown ….

PV ramping up now , was hoping the eQBO might assist in preventing a strong vortex this winter ..

Doesn't seem to be having much effect on the PV as of yet .

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

PV ramping up now , was hoping the eQBO might assist in preventing a strong vortex this winter ..

Doesn't seem to be having much effect on the PV as of yet .

I take it you mean the strat PV?  Yes, it looks like it’s into overdrive in the next couple of weeks:

But it doesn’t mean anything if the trop doesn’t connect, and GFS T144 is isn’t:

I think the faster the strat vortex, the more favourable the outcome when it blows, in terms of splits; if the forecast Russian high and Aleutian low persists for a while, this one could be blown to smithereens in early Jan.  

Edited December 4, 2021 by Mike Poole

[The Northern Ramper]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

PV ramping up now , was hoping the eQBO might assist in preventing a strong vortex this winter ..

Doesn't seem to be having much effect on the PV as of yet .

Whilst we haven’t seen the PV have much effect on our weather as of yet, not in the traditional zonal sense anyway.

[Mike Poole]

ECM , UKMO, GFS T72:

Pick the bones out of that!  UKMO running it further east, ECM having it way deeper.  Nothing after this is going to get resolved until this is.  

[Griff]

Sponsored by the chuckle brothers... To me.. To you... 

Bit more blocky again, more light blue...