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Netweather Winter Forecast 2021/2022


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Thanks for all the work you must have put into this @Nick F.  It is a great read, and very well explained.  I was particularly interested in the correlation between the solar activity and the NAO which I hadn’t come across before and looks particularly relevant to this year, and, if I may stretch things a bit, this winter and last winter and the intervening summer.  I’m just wondering if that kind of pattern was relevant, it seems it was, in winter 2010/11 after the preceding winter and summer, and may in part explain the tendency for cold winters to occur not at the solar minimum but just after.  Anyway, just my musings on that. 

    Bottom line I take is coldies are in with a real shout this winter, whether from early impacts as we are looking at in the MOD now for December, or as a result of a higher probability of a SSW later on.  Should be a fascinating season.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Very interesting Nick. Thanks for all the hard work compiling this. As somebody who has never much understood the many atmospheric drivers that effect our weather this has helped to make it clearer, or should I say an understanding of how complex it all is and how no one driver is responsible for weather patterns but the combination of all of them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Thanks Nick, a really good read. Fingers crossed, this forecast comes to pass (especially Jan & Feb)

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    Posted
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton

    I’m still trying to learn and understand all the different drivers of our weather.  Some I understand better than others but have yet to be able to “put it all together” in any coherent way.  I have to say this piece of work has helped my understanding of the different elements enormously.  Thank you!    

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Excellent put together forecast. As others said not easy to make it an easy understandable reason but you've managed that with enough technical analysis to appeal to the professionals as well.

    A complex set of drivers this winter.. I feel we are in the same boat as last year really.. and your forecast has some correlation with last winter which was slightly colder than normal with a SSW in January. Only difference is suggestion of mild zonal first part of Jan and perhaps a cold Feb in the main. 

    I always hope for a cold run in to Christmas something very rare only 2009 and 2010 have delivered recently most years it's very mild.. December on a knife edge it seems could go either way around mid month but pleased to note something colder from the east may arrive in time for Christmas. I can take a mild run in if exchanged for cold last week.. exactly what happened last December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex/Suffolk Border
  • Location: Essex/Suffolk Border

    That’s got to be one of the most informative and well structured forecasts I’ve read.  Nicely done, and thank you ??

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Thanks Nick. A huge amount of work has obviously gone into it. Very well explained with an absence of jargon enabling  most to get a good insight into just how complex the background signals are that lead into any particular weather pattern. Thank you and good luck for your predictions to be in the 'right ball park'.

    Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    What a fantastic and well put together forecast thank you Nick let’s hope it comes off good luck

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Great read Nick - well written and researched forecast, a great analysis of the drivers in play. Good luck !

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Good read and good luck Nick F - i must admit its funny because i had been thinking right through autumn and i just had a feeling this winter might buck the trend of nina and be backloaded rather than frontloaded, can't put my finger on why, i have been so busy i haven't built any analogues at all, haven't watched any of Gavin Partridge's videos but it seems that a few pro's are now thinking that way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Good read and good luck Nick F - i must admit its funny because i had been thinking right through autumn and i just had a feeling this winter might buck the trend of nina and be backloaded rather than frontloaded, can't put my finger on why, i have been so busy i haven't built any analogues at all, haven't watched any of Gavin Partridge's videos but it seems that a few pro's are now thinking that way.

    Hi Feb1991blizzard.  I would check out Gavin Partridge's winter forecast and also TWO's winter forecast.  Both rather interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Thanks for the comments everyone. 

    The December forecast suggest the first half of the month will "likely see a battle between a blocking high pressure system building between Scandinavia and the Urals (with potential to extend west) and a strong tropospheric polar vortex wobbling back and forth between northern Canada and Greenland" ... but that ... "the jet stream may be forced southeast by a growing blocking high to the northeast over Scandinavia, perhaps allowing colder conditions across to spread south at times." Certainly the models seem to be trending this way at the moment. Perhaps underestimating how much the Scandi/Ural block to the NE disrupts upper flow energy trying to push into NW Europe - fuelled by the strong tropospheric Polar Vortex over Greenland.

    Furthermore - supporting the idea of more sustained blocking and cold pattern later this month - Constructed Analogue forecast suggests MJO will go through phases 7-8 at decent amplitude.

    On the RMM plot - the constructed analogue is the green line:

    statphase_full.thumb.gif.7dd12b621d35140ec622d29e33dc4722.gif

    The spatial OLR anomalies show, in blue, the MJO enhanced convection wave moving east over the western Pacific into phase 7-8

    spatial_olrmap_CA_full.thumb.gif.e05dc1dc54717aeafc02c011a4bd937f.gifphases10.thumb.gif.a09ccb5e642f16766074626002b24fc7.gif

    The extended EPS 10 hPa zonal mean zonal wind from Thursday showed growing spread for the strength of the strat PV - with a dip in the mean around Xmas period - perhaps we could be seeing the SPV under stress from wave propagation into the stratosphere from the Scandi/Ural block concurrent with Aleutian High building poleward signal too. Maybe a weaker and displaced SPV into the New Year?

    20211204160922-8ec5c1443b24e341641492f4b680d965eaf00c57.thumb.png.2b38d41921f3f12c3b7294eb0cf24885.png

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_240.thumb.png.f336e665d495ceda942ddcc34459e27f.png

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    On 03/12/2021 at 23:27, Don said:

    Hi Feb1991blizzard.  I would check out Gavin Partridge's winter forecast and also TWO's winter forecast.  Both rather interesting!

    will do at some point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    An enormous amount of time and work must have gone into that forecast, Nick. Very well explained, comprehensive and detailed so let's hope you've been somewhere near the mark come the end of February.

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