Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[JoeShmoe]

2 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Really can’t get excited about about any cold in the future unless it is only a few days ahead with cross model agreement.

I suspect that like myself there are many others who have been model watching for many years on here that were seeing the literally thousands of posts in the last week and thinking the same thing. Indeed even more so given the divergence in output  
 

Once you accept less than T+96 with cross model agreement as the number 1 rule in winter and ignore all these boom posts at t+168 etc from the usual suspects it gets much easier !

[NewEra21]

You just have to laugh really

[Guest]

Thats a week of my life I'm not gonna get back!

Off to resume my other MORE rewarding pastime, Yetti watch!....................That reminds me, must pop to the garage to get the wifes Xmas Prezzie!

 

[nick sussex]

Quite astonishing . Not a single ECM ensemble backed this type of warm up for northern parts by day 8.

[Guest]

Solid output this morning with almost all output finally removing the threat of any cold between Xmas and new year. Really looking quite mild at times now across the south and rainfall signals not looking too excessive away from the north and west. 
 

[maplesyrup]

Will probably flip back in a few hours. Models are a waste of time at the moment 

[Met4Cast]

Will be saving on the heating bills if the ECM is right that’s for sure!

Ironically we’ve got more model support now than we’ve had for about a week now!

[Fozfoster]

Lol Happy Christmas everyone 

[O'Maille80]

On 20/12/2021 at 06:53, O'Maille80 said:

Dreadful output this morning. At least we know now and that's a relief. It's the not knowing that's head wrecking. Not the end of the world, it's only weather.

 

[NewEra21]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite astonishing . Not a single ECM ensemble backed this type of warm up for northern parts by day 8.

You just know it will count down seamlessly now as well, the way it always goes when mild pops up.

[The Real Snowman]

Merry Christmas everyone I’m going to continue recovering from illness which is proving slow going and try and make the best of Christmas regardless of the weather. The classic nowcasting of looking out the window will see me right. All the best to you all.

[iowpompeylee]

This unfortunately happens during most chase’s on here, the met office app had it nailed on for the south coast days ago. Heavy rain and mild. But we live in hope and chase the next one. Still not all lost yet. It’s just so volatile who knows what tonight will  bring.. have a great Christmas everyone

[Troubleatmill]

16 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

I suspect that like myself there are many others who have been model watching for many years on here that were seeing the literally thousands of posts in the last week and thinking the same thing. Indeed even more so given the divergence in output  
 

Once you accept less than T+96 with cross model agreement as the number 1 rule in winter and ignore all these boom posts at t+168 etc from the usual suspects it gets much easier !

Indeed, there are always the 'boom' posters or its 'nailed' posters but after 15 years on here I've also learned. Not to ignore them but think of it as Facebook and some just going for likes rather than what is actually showing across the suite. The likes of Blue army, snowking and singularity are the more realistic & knowledgeable posters i look out for.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Beano
Missed

[Rayth]

What a difference a day makes , unbelievable 

[Ravelin]

Well there were plenty of people who said to be cautious as the models were all struggling with unusual synoptics. What no one really realised however was just HOW MUCH the models were struggling. That's been an absolutely stunning flip in output since this time yesterday. Not the first time I've seen it happen though. 

[mountain shadow]

Wow. Complete failure of the model output if this morning's runs turn out to be true.

Also, the Meto forecasts will need changing back from the positives of yesterday .

[Met4Cast]

You’ve got to laugh really from cold & snow prospects to early spring! 

New Years Eve BBQ anyone?

[mulzy]

ECM day 10 very amplified - is this the next chase or just a straw to cling onto to?

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Rayth said:

What a difference a day makes , unbelievable 

Rayth. I would bookmark those for the next time a cold spell comes into view and post them as a warning evert hour on the hour!

[nick sussex]

The ECM rapidly goes down hill from day 3 when . Between day 3 and 4 it fails to eject any energy se wards .

There’s still uncertainty over shortwaves running east into the UK as the outputs disagree on the finer detail .

I’d give it one more run tonight to see whether they converge on the earlier timeframe .

Its been overall an abysmal performance from the big 3, last chance saloon this evening as these sudden shifts don’t instill much confidence !

[The Eagle]

You could probably have an outdoor bbq on this

[Georgina]

12 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

Merry Christmas everyone I’m going to continue recovering from illness which is proving slow going and try and make the best of Christmas regardless of the weather. The classic nowcasting of looking out the window will see me right. All the best to you all.

Merry Christmas , Sometimes there’s more important things in life than the weather , I hope you get better real soon ! Have a wonderful Christmas  

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

You’ve got to laugh really from cold & snow prospects to early spring! 

New Years Eve BBQ anyone?

Haboob 

[The Eagle]

You'd be looking at max temps somewhere, between 16 and 18c there...

Edited December 22, 2021 by The Eagle

[sheikhy]

Wow did not expect this at alll this morning!what on earth has just happened!!this has to be one of the worse periods of modelling i have ever seen since joining netweather 20 years ago!for this day and age they have been woeful!!!that has to be the final nail in the coffin!!for me it defo is anyway!!finally gona go and enjoy the rest of this holiday with my kids without any snowy distraction!!!lol!!been a gruelling few weeks on here!!!