SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[andymcpool]

HO HO HO

[snowrye]

Just got the summer gear out, typical

[Daniel*]

The weather has been great over the last  10 days not that good today it appears a cloud clearance is coming Essex way, not as good as 2020 but it does have company with best in “christmas pudding” with 2012. Now the weather looks to turn much colder and there could be some wintriness it does remind me a bit of 2012 let’s just hope the summer is not similar that’s the last real bad one for our region - 10 years! 

[Methuselah]

Time to get in the mood for summer, I think:

 

[Tn9]

On 26/03/2022 at 17:22, Atmogenic said:

Had a trip to pluckly  though not in pluckly itself, went to a new woods called derling woods (I think that's what it's called) and had a nice walk in there though it's still very tacky in many places, we did a little off course detour into the fields close by, but as always we have to backtrack otherwise I would keep going and going until we go so far and get lost 

 

 

Did you see any ghosts ,there is a ghost round every corner ,especially the woods apparently ,lord or duke dereing used to own the whole show there,he had all the places that he built done with arched windows

[Tn9]

The difference between north kent and south sussex was markedly different  today ,progressivly brighter the more south you went drizzle misty murky in sevenoaks ,bright sunshine in hastings 

[Soaring Hawk]

Cool, misty and cloudy today.  What a difference - just as the warmth and sun had revitalised everyone.  Eventually it got a little less dull this afternoon but the sun only came out just as it started to set.  Currently clear skies and 11°C.  Had a nice long walk this morning but couldn't go to lunch with my daughter, who was going to cook my favourite meal, because she's still Covid positive (on her 9th day), poor girl and we can't risk getting infected and taking it into our respective health settings.   Never mind, at least she hasn't been too ill this second time around.

Great that its still light at 7:30pm.   Hope all the Mummies had a good day!

Edited March 27, 2022 by Soaring Hawk

[Soaring Hawk]

Some posties work on a Sunday! My little darling with his Mummy's Day card.  

Edited March 27, 2022 by Soaring Hawk

[Kent Blizzard]

GEM going for the White stuff Thursday LOL

[Tn9]

14 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

GEM going for the White stuff Thursday LOL

Song by hawkwind wasn't it or was that right stuff ,well should of been right stuff  for winter ,better late than never as they say

[Eagle Eye]

Fom the 12Z runs today on what I expect to happen soon and what is likely to happen.

We can see that the Rossby Waves are beginning to struggle to have enough energy in the near future although there is still strong Wave progression in the Pacific and until it gets into the North Atlantic Waves do seem to be able to keep their energy high.

The negatively tilted trough moves across here, early on and splits north and south before moving off and weakening in the North Atlantic.

 Here we have a real mess which is mainly moved by a south-westerly propagating movement of energy that will eventually weaken as it propagates further south. That'll leave room for either another Rossby Wave or a low to push through and the models seem to expect a low to come through after a Rossby Wave.

Looking over in the Pacific and we have a highly sheared Wave progression close to North America but eventually that'll weaken when it loses it's source of energy.

Here's what seems to be the main source. The confusion over the progression of the MJO is massively highlighted here and so I don't think models can be trusted far out at the moment (that's why I've kept it to 150 hours, which I did for Winter when looking at the 200 mb Height, Wind charts through Winter).

So a lot of confusion to be expected soon is my main taking from this.

[Tn9]

On 24/03/2022 at 13:42, Eagle Eye said:

I seem to remember looking back at the most CAPE recorded in the UK and I seem to remember that year, 3000 j/kg was recorded, maybe it was this storm or is my memory failing me?

It was brilliant ,but only one other I remember was 12th august 1997 ,never have I seen at night one after another after another seperate cells ,with moon light inbetween ..fantastic ,once in a life time for here anyway for me 

[Blazerblue]

Foggy old morning, some light spots of rain in it, 5c.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Some would think snowmaggedon and -10 was coming end of this week.. 

 

Quick reality check.. 

9c and cold rain.. 

 

Looking forward to some rain though... been a dry few weeks!

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Some would think snowmaggedon and -10 was coming end of this week.. 

 

Quick reality check.. 

9c and cold rain.. 

 

Looking forward to some rain though... been a dry few weeks!

I think at best sleet late afternoon but yeah, not a smowmaggedon

[Blazerblue]

50 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Some would think snowmaggedon and -10 was coming end of this week.. 

 

Quick reality check.. 

9c and cold rain.. 

 

Looking forward to some rain though... been a dry few weeks!

Wait, what, so my beeb weather app, showing snow from 4am thursday morning is lying! I dont believe it! 

Meanwhile back on planet EA, the sun has finally made it out of the gloom, temps up to 13c. Looks like a repeat of the fog and gloom again tomorrow morning to look forward to.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

39 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Wait, what, so my beeb weather app, showing snow from 4am thursday morning is lying! I dont believe it! 

Meanwhile back on planet EA, the sun has finally made it out of the gloom, temps up to 13c. Looks like a repeat of the fog and gloom again tomorrow morning to look forward to.

Lol... those pesky apps 

[Lauren]

Well this is certainly a come down after the beautiful sunny weather of last week. But can't lie, intrigued to see if we get some snow!

[lassie23]

I think Thursday's ahem "snow event" will be downgraded to drizzle

[Kentspur]

GFS is better than GEM for SE Snow on 12z

 

Can we finally eek a few cms out of this wint.. errrr Spring

[Soaring Hawk]

Foggy start as it got light, slight hint of frost at bottom of the garden, by 7am temperature had dropped to -0.4°C and the whole lawn was white.  Sun broke through around 9am, blue sky from then on and achieved a high today of 16.8°C and humidity of 63% at 15:30.   Currently 12°C with humidity of 71% felt very mild on evening dog walk.  Very little wind today.  Pressure has dropped slowly all day and now 1017.8hPa and continuing to fall slowly.  No rain has fallen since 16th March. 

Felt very pleasant in the sun this afternoon and a bit of a bonus day given the Met Office app on my phone said cloud, cloud and more cloud.  The said App has given me a snowflake at 4am on Thursday.  Just the one lonely flake mind.  I'd consider turning on the outside floodlights and setting the alarm to hunt down the intrepid wee miracle, except I'd far rather have the sun and warmth back thank you very much. 

[Kentspur]

BBC App has changed to heavy snow symbols for several hours now. One hour light snow on Met app

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ECM very much on its own this morning RE snow.. its to warm its always over the top when It comes to it..

Trust me when I say it, I won't be staying up for this one LOL!

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Fron what I can see. The dewpoints will get down cold enough for snow but one thing that interests me is the fluctuations of heat esepcially with height that I think will determine that it wont be just snow. Cold rain looks the most likely, simply because of the shallowness of the cold layer. It does say snow but I think it'll be warmer than the GFS suggests because it typically is.

Here's my reasoning for it to be cold rain.

For sleet, it would need to be a shallow warm layer whereas this one looks too deep as it approaches. The kinematics aren't the best for sleet except maybe in pockets of the atmosphere I'm some places, especially closer to the coast.

Whereas if we look over The Netherlands and that sort of area its simply colder and so it in one cold layer (which won't count as a layer just cold).

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Nick F]

4 hours ago, Surrey said:

ECM very much on its own this morning RE snow.. its to warm its always over the top when It comes to it..

Trust me when I say it, I won't be staying up for this one LOL!

 

 

I dunno, not a done deal, delay to frontal clearance and greater intensity of ppn Wednesday night, a la GFS/EC, may allow cold enough air to undercut and temp to drop enough for snow to fall and even settle, especially grass and cars, but probably not roads/pavements given recent warmth, so not disruptive. GFS and EC similar, not much change on 06z GFS. But, as ever, will be down to the wire in such marginal situations. I'll be nowcasting.