SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Thursday night's rainfall numbers for the south east. More than I thought to be fair. 

That looks about right tbh ,I mean we had blobletts not like what they had up town 

[Tn9]

I see gfs has earl or remnants steaming up channel on last run ,maybe we will get a couple millimetres out of that ..Danielle more than likely to steam north and melt Greenland at bit more  oh all change Danielle will give or try to give us a shower ..Earl now is going north..total swap from 36 hours ago ..

Edited September 3, 2022 by TN9

[Wimbledon88]

17 minutes ago, TN9 said:

I see gfs has earl or remnants steaming up channel on last run ,maybe we will get a couple millimetres out of that ..Danielle more than likely to steam north and melt Greenland at bit more

True that. I think we will get a fair dose of convective rain from midweek but it ll be nowcasting. The days of big frontal storms off the Atlantic seem to be suspended down these parts. 

But they'll be back. Mother nature will always balance things out in the end. 

[Eagle Eye]

My risk for today, most of the risk is in the Western part of the Region though. The ECM does show something for the eastern part of our region so it's a possibility but only a slight risk I would say.

[Electricmumma]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

My risk for today, most of the risk is in the Western part of the Region though. The ECM does show something for the eastern part of our region so it's a possibility but only a slight risk I would say.

And again I'm the wrong side of beachy head

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

And again I'm the wrong side of beachy head

I'm on the wrong side of Kent

[Electricmumma]

10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm on the wrong side of Kent

It's painful when you are stuck literally half an hour away from a great view point, a view point which blocks the view from where you are lol

[Electricmumma]

I'm the warning triangle..

[Blessed Weather]

Yet another beautiful day in Suffolk with the afternoon temperature currently 25.5C. The cloudy spell around lunchtime has cleared and there's now fair weather cumulus playing noughts and crosses with a couple of aircraft contrails.

The satellite image shows the active low pressure positioned too far west (atm) to throw up any rain bands over our Region. Hopefully that changes later in the week as the low edges east (although weakening as it does).

Eyes then turn to next weekend, with GFS tracking an ex-tropical storm across southern UK around the 10th/11th Sept. GFS cumulative rainfall forecast to 14th Sept show the impact this might have, with a couple of inches of rain for many and finally ending the long drought. But pinch of salt required - that outcome is still uncertain at the moment.

Cum rainfall to 14th:

[Kent Blizzard]

Surprised to see it so quiet in here, might be some interest on the way overnight for those to the West.

[Harry's House]

Very frequent thunder and lightning to S'ly and SW'ly.

[Mark wheeler]

Just back from Majorca yesterday and it seems I have brought some of the weather back with us . Going out to the Garden soon to see if I can see anything.

[Mark wheeler]

This was a storm that was raging just South of Barcelona when we was travelling to the airport ( plama majorca  )  yesterday morning.  I was relieved we was not delayed . 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Mark wheeler]

Taken in Chessington just now .

[Reefseeker]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Taken in Chessington just now .

IMG_1503.MOV

Maybe that cell around Haslemere or the stuff approaching from the Isle of Wight? Hope it makes it here, still feels quite warm. 

Edit: just looked south west out the attic window and saw 2 forks of lightning in the distance. 

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Reefseeker

[Norfolk Sheep]

I see the east had precisely zero yet again. 

God, it's pathetic.

[Dami]

Well the winds got up and it rained. Thought a really loud plane was going over, cursed it rolled back to sleep.

yeah it was thundering.

duh. 

[lottiekent]

Couldn’t make this up, so near yet so far! Not a drop here overnight

 

[snowblind]

Some thunder and lightning last night but no rain again.

[Eagle Eye]

Dan's take on today

[minus10]

Well got 3mm last night...couple of distant flashes...lucky i suppose considering once again places east missed out...

[Lauren]

Looks like it just missed us. Heard a few rumbles and had some rain but the storm went to the west of us.

[Eagle Eye]

My take on today

[Methuselah]

Another warm, close and completely dry night. Another warm, close and completely dry day in store?

22C at 8am. Just goes to show how overused the term 'autumnal' really is!

Edited September 5, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Blessed Weather]

My flower beds are wilting but I'm going to resist watering them because Arome and Arpege are forecasting some heavy rain finally making it to the east of the Region in the wee small hours of tomorrow. It's a gamble they're right though - NMM has the rain heading north on a more westerly track and missing eastern counties - again!!

Arome 03.00: Arpege 01.00:

NMM 01.00: