SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Eagle Eye]

More Storm chances today.

Widespread general CAPE with some shearing and perhaps some organisation of Storms, very much like yesterday but further south according to the NMM.

Before the final night event looks to take place in the early hours of tomorrow morning according to the NMM and the ICON D2.

But the UKV says something different with them occurring late evening and perhaps towards the early night hours as well.

 

[Methuselah]

9 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Oh lawks, you haven't gone and eaten some of those funny ones, have you?

Had a thunderstorm sometime last night, NS: white and bright., so defo wasn't Nadine Dorries. I'm still in shock!

[Dami]

Today has started like yesterday. Rain edging up then breaking up.

[Lauren]

Steady moderate rain here and I'm still snuggled up in bed. So cosy to listen to it.

[minus10]

45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Had a thunderstorm sometime last night, NS: white and bright., so defo wasn't Nadine Dorries. I'm still in shock!

Thats great news ES...hope you had some real rain too...

[Eagle Eye]

My risk for today

I could have put further risk increases further north but my thinking was that the lack of CAPE and Low Shearing may counteract convergence so I'll keep it to slight risk for now because that area will probably either bust or be very strong and I've already had one enhanced risk bust yesterday so I don't want another one to.

Anyway, onto the general risk for today.

Surface Based convection likely gets going country wide early afternoon perhaps even earlier but mainly pulse Storms with some organisation possible across the Midlands but the extent of which is hard to tell because the area of convergence varies from run to run and so does the strength of CAPE. Further south and after having a similar day to the rest of the country, convergence looks possible sometime in the evening to early morning hours with an increase in CAPE as well and almost all models show some sort of line of Storms forming across where the enhanced risk area is.

[Tom Montalbano]

8 hours ago, Mesoscale said:

4 days with 5 different storms and 3 shelf clouds? Are we Florida now? I feel spoilt. 

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Yes Ms, very Florida like. Will Bromley's Keston Ponds, become the Everglades?

Would you believe, it may well be 5 Thunder Days, by the end of Today and possibly 6 Tomorrow?

This for Today, from the Met Office:

 A mixture of sunny spells and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, and slow-moving across England and Wales. More persistent heavy rain perhaps reaching the northeast later. 

FRIDAY

Band of cloud and rain across northern and western areas clearing east with scattered heavy showers developing in south. Scotland and Northern Ireland becoming mainly dry with sunshine.

MeteoGroup via the BBC, singing from the same Hymn sheet:

TODAY

Today will see showers or spells of rain in eastern Scotland, heavy at times. Elsewhere there will be a mix of sunny spells and showers, possibly heavy and thundery in places.

FRIDAY

Tomorrow, showers are expected for many, possibly heavy at times. Long spells of rain in southern Scotland and the far north of England. Drier with sunshine in north and northwest Scotland.

After what has been a virtually Thunder free Summer, the transition to Autumn has certainly woken up the Weather Gods.

And with winds becoming lighter now, as that persistent area of Low Pressure that has been parked to the West of us for what seems like an eternity, drifts across England, any Thundery Showers that do occur could well be longer lasting and could deposit a lot of rain, in a relatively short space of time.

I can't remember in my lifetime, if it should happen, that I would experience 5/6 Days of Thunder on the trot!!

Below, is a link to the BBC Weather Website, explaining why we have seen so much Lightning, lately:

Why has there been so much lightning? - BBC Weather

Raining steadily here in Lee already but no Sferics, just yet.

Still feels pretty humid, with a Relative Humidity of 88% at London City Airport, a little way to the North of here:

In a different way, this Thundery spell is beginning to remind of what occurred in February 2005, a Month after I joined NW.

After many Years of not seeing much Snow, out of the blue we started to see some Northern Blocking. I went by the Avatar name of TOMSE20, back then. I lived in a different part of S.E. London, called Anerley. 

I witnessed Thirteen consecutive Days of Snow falling, although the majority of Days it was of the flurry variety, there were Three separate Thames Snow Streamer events. As there had been hardly any Frost before these noteworthy Synoptics took hold, I have no doubt the Snow Depth of Four inches that was attained during one of those Thames Snow Streamer events, would have been exceeded.

In other news, after having my 4th Covid vaccine jab Yesterday Morning, I experienced quite an uncomfortable Night due to the site of the injection becoming very sore but this was nothing like what my Wife Colette, experienced.

At around 2.30 A.M., she woke me up, claiming she was "freezing", yet her skin was hot to touch.

This was the same reaction Colette had to her first Covid vaccine jab [AstraZeneca].

As I've stated before, Colette suffers from the AutoImmune condition Psoriasis, and she has a hypersensitive Immune System.

Evidently the vaccine we had Yesterday [Moderna], has elements of both the original Covid Virus and the Omicron variant.

It could be that Colette's Immune System recognised the original Covid Virus, as I am convinced we both had it, at the start of the Pandemic but reacted against the Omicron variant, as it was alien to my Wife's Immune System.

Fortunately after taking a couple of Paracetamol, the "chills" subsided but for a while she complained of feeling hot, and put one of our Bedroom fans, on.

But Colette maintains, that if she needed to have a 5th Covid vaccine, she would take it without hesitation.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

My risk for today

I could have put further risk increases further north but my thinking was that the lack of CAPE and Low Shearing may counteract convergence so I'll keep it to slight risk for now because that area will probably either bust or be very strong and I've already had one enhanced risk bust yesterday so I don't want another one to.

Anyway, onto the general risk for today.

Surface Based convection likely gets going country wide early afternoon perhaps even earlier but mainly pulse Storms with some organisation possible across the Midlands but the extent of which is hard to tell because the area of convergence varies from run to run and so does the strength of CAPE. Further south and after having a similar day to the rest of the country, convergence looks possible sometime in the evening to early morning hours with an increase in CAPE as well and almost all models show some sort of line of Storms forming across where the enhanced risk area is.

That prospective lot over Kent needs to get going before 11am, EE = play abandoned!

[seb]

Rain!! We have proper rain with puddles

[Norfolk Sheep]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Had a thunderstorm sometime last night, NS: white and bright., so defo wasn't Nadine Dorries. I'm still in shock!

I had a thunder (twice!!) out towards Attleborough way, I did drive out but it was remarkably unnoteworthy apart from the torrential rain, the run off from the fields was extrememly quick, many puddles to splash through! 

[Blessed Weather]

Guess where the Low Pressure is at 13.00 today? Nicely captured by the Arome cumulative rainfall forecast chart:

Looking like it's the southern counties of the Region (mainly Surrey, Sussex and Kent) that are going to see the lions share of the beefy showers as the Low tracks east with 2 inches (50mm) possible in localised spots. Cumulative rainfall to midnight Friday 9th:

Arome:  NMM:

[Norfolk Sheep]

Horribly out of practice and only 3 opportunities from miles away (I mean come on, lightning every 15 minutes?) plus torrential rain. I'm amazed my knackered old 60D was even roughly in focus never mind facing the right way. 

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Horribly out of practice and only 3 opportunities from miles away (I mean come on, lightning every 15 minutes?) plus torrential rain. I'm amazed my knackered old 60D was even roughly in focus never mind facing the right way. 

 

Lightning was more frequent than that over here, NS. It was so good my cat ran off so he could watch it. BTW, he watches fireworks too -- he's a very strange cat!

[Norfolk Sheep]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Lightning was more frequent than that over here, NS. It was so good my cat ran off so he could watch it. BTW, he watches fireworks too -- he's a very strange cat!

Yeah, it was more of a coastal thing, I'm surprised part of it managed to limp inland tbh. 

Cats are weird.

[Katrine Basso]

Late last night I looked out to my bedroom and there was a streak of fork lightning that appeared above one of the houses across the road from me. There was no thunder and there was no sound with the appearance of the fork lightning. It made me jump as it was unexpected as there was no forecast of a thunderstorm for Thurrock. The rain was copious and made a great deal of difference to my gardens and the ground still looks wet. I hope there will be rain for Thurrock today.

[lassie23]

I wonder if it will rain from now to December as nature balances everything out.

[Katrine Basso]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Guess where the Low Pressure is at 13.00 today? Nicely captured by the Arome cumulative rainfall forecast chart:

Looking like it's the southern counties of the Region (mainly Surrey, Sussex and Kent) that are going to see the lions share of the beefy showers as the Low tracks east with 2 inches (50mm) possible in localised spots. Cumulative rainfall to midnight Friday 9th:

Arome:  NMM:

I hope this includes Thurrock as it is not that far from Kent.  As the crow flies Dartford is only 5 miles away from the QE2 bridge in West Thurrock.

[scrat]

Thunder in Bromley....day five!

[Blessed Weather]

18 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I hope this includes Thurrock as it is not that far from Kent.  As the crow flies Dartford is only 5 miles away from the QE2 bridge in West Thurrock.

Hi Katrine. Looking at the shower echoes and their directional track on the radar you could get a soaking very soon! Netweather forecast has you down for possibly 10mm today. Good luck!

[Katrine Basso]

Thanks Malcolm, that's amazing news.  I will be watching the skies looking after the thickening of the clouds.

[dubmuffin]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I wonder if it will rain from now to December as nature balances everything out.

This is my worry, but I hope not - unless it turns to snow! Already missing the dry and sunny stuff

[Dami]

Yeah it doesn't show much but trust me i have showers all round and clear blue sky above my house. nothing is getting to me at all.

[Blazerblue]

So apparently we got thunder and lightning and heavy rain last night? Didn’t hear a thing! Can’t have been that impressive? Did however get bloomin wet on the 5.30am dog walk, typical. Many clouds about today, still very warm in the sunshine. More rain needed, just not at walk time please

[Katrine Basso]

Here is a video I took over two hours ago as it taken that time for me to edit it.

 

 

[Neilsouth]

From drought to flooded roads! Crazy  Even had a rumble of thunder!

Edited September 8, 2022 by Neilsouth