SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Bogman]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

nobby? or noddy?   

nothing worse than wet xmas cards   

thanks mate.

[Hotspur62]

Currently 7.4 and absolutely hammering it down and semi dark still at 8.50!!Times like this I long for summer even though I am a coldie at heart!!Looks like this till midday here.Another washout workwise If it’s not the snow it’s the rain but it was my choice to try and earn a living by working outside so it is what it is .Oh well it looks better tomorrow

[Jimmyh]

Absolutely hammering it down. As much as I love the snow really don't think inwould want frostbite risk as they have in the States!! Back to normal wet old blighty now 

[Tom Montalbano]

Good Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Was tipping it down here in S,E.London, as was during Laura Tobin's Weather forecasts on Good Morning Britain, from the east of mine and my Wife's home Borough of Bromley, over in Petts Wood, Orpington.

Had a very sleepless night with a very painful shoulder, which was made worse by Vicky "the Vixen" Brush, practising her attempt at a Christmas number One with her cover version of Withering Heights, on no less than four separate occasions.

Due to last Week's bitterly cold and snowy Weather, Vicky had to cancel all her "appointments".

This has really annoyed the Asthmatic Dog Fox, Dougal. More on that, soon. 

Evidently, Vicky was concerned that she might become "welded" to one of her "punters" [namely Dougal], whilst in a frozen amorous "union".

Vicky also had a bit of a throat last Week and was conspicuous by her absence.

But Vicky was back to her screeching best this Morning and is preparing to appear on BBC One's, Top of the Foxes, on Christmas Day Afternoon.

Vicky has managed to persuade her Cousin, Kate Brush, to do a duet with her on Christmas Day.

Kate has even agreed for Vicky to change the following lyric:

"Heathcliff, it's me, I'm Cathy
I’ve come home, I'm so cold
Let me in-a-your window
Heathcliff, it's me, I'm Cathy
I’ve come home, I'm so cold
Let me in-a-your window"

to this below:

"Dougal, it's me, I'm Vicky. I've come home but I'm not cold.

No need to let me in-a-your window                                                           

Dougal, it's me, I'm Vicky I've come home but I'm not cold.

No need to let me in-a-your window"

But Vicky's multiple appearances this Morning, was also to announce her verdict on the South East Region's prospect, of a White Christmas. 

After one more final look at the 00z Model Runs, Vicky cleared her throat and the "Fox Lady" has sung, there's NO chance of a White Christmas, down here in the South East. Not really Rocket Science though is it Vicky? When was the last one, Foxy Lady?

Meanwhile in a childish fit of pique at having his "appointment" with Vicky cancelled, Dougal the Dog Fox has released his own Single, in a cynical ploy to beat Vicky to a Christmas Number One.

Dougal has recorded a rehashed version of the Jimi Hendrix classic Purple Haze, to mark the reappearance of the Polar Vortex, after it had disappeared for a while.

Dougal has called his version, Purple Blob [You're just a Polar slob], and has even changed the following lyrics

Jimi Hendrix's Verse 1:
Purple haze all in my brain
Lately things, they don't seem the same
Acting funny, but I don't know why
'Scuse me while I kiss the sky.

Dougal's Verse 1:

Purple blob all in my brain                                                                                                                                                                                               

Don't know if it will ever Snow again                                                                                                                                                                           

Polar Vortex appears back on a chart                                                                                                                                                                         

'Scuse me while I do a f--t.     

Jimi Hendrix's Verse 2:
Purple haze all around
Don't know if I'm coming up or down
Am I happy or in misery?
Whatever it is, that girl put a spell on me 

 Dougal's Verse 2:   

Purple blob all around                                                                                                                                                                                                       

I know it's Rain not Snow, that's gonna come down                                                                                                                                               

Am I happy or in misery?                                                                                                                                                                                               

Whatever it is, that ECM put a spell on me.

And they said the art of Song writing was dead? My advice Dougal, is don't give up the Day job, which evidently is being Vicky's "sponsor".

But Dougal, I hope you are an infinitely better guitarist, than you are a Song writer!! 

Regards,

Tom Q. Vicky Vixen and Dougal-Dog Fox. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Tom Quintavalle

[Eagle Eye]

I did a really silly thing and asked someone out last night and of course got rejected so excuse me if I'm not in the festive mood but the lovely weather this morning isn't exactly cheering me up. Why can't this be falling as snow ?

So, I'm going to be looking on the brighter side here rather than reverting to the assuming the models are right at 384 hours like some people seem to do (no names to be named of course).

Notice the zonal packet in the 0-30E area, that's around the Eurasian area and despite no more Eurasian blocking -which was waning when the Euro ridge formed hence it didn't have quite enough oomph to form a Scandi block- but this time if the North African high is further East then maybe we can at least get some form of a Scandi block. The more likely result is a Eurasian ridge but we can't count out a Scandi blocking. Also note the jet retraction around 120E-180, that's East Asia and the Pacific . So if that strengthens further, its not all that bad because that oscillates the jet further down the line usually.

There's slightly more backing for a Nino-esque pattern on the GWO which is backing the AAM rebound to last a few more days (Green line) but its clearly not as amplified as before. Its keeping the unstable inertia state propping up poleward Eddy transfer fairly well which may just fall well for us. Due to the amplification it's unlikely to but that doesn't mean that it can't.

MJO looking to move towards phases 6 and 7 by the end of the year which would normally get a response 2 to 3 weeks later, so near the time of my birthday. It has a fairly good chance of a -VE NAO but to not be overriden once we get to it by let's say, a zonal signal, I would probably prefer it to be slightly more amplified than its forecast to be and phase 6/7 doesn't guarantee a -VE NAO to be fair either. It just increases the chance of us having one.

My hoping is that the AAM doesn't go overly -VE and override the MJO signal as it connects up with the oceanic base state. Or that the Euro ridge signal doesn't start pushing itself too much as that's the pattern flattener so the MJO signal becomes less important for iur eventual weather here. There's still a lot of moisture in the Tropics so another Atmospheric River riding the colder air from Polar regions then the backedge drops here and that could lead to a lot of snow if it gets cold enough in let's say mid January. That's just trying to pick up a signal that doesn't exist really yet and we wouldn't know till closer to time.

[Tn9]

18 hours ago, MAF said:

over the years i have learnt a lot about the way the weather works from the model threads. however, i have two major gripes with things on the threads. 

1. people who post 'one-liners' - no explanation, no evidence, absolute ambiguity; nothing to give meaning to the post.
2. people who react to a computer generated model as if it is 'true life' - they live and breathe by a generated synopsis as if it is set in stone.

maybe i am getting too old 

No your not getting old, the year is, but the night is young and so are we lol ...I got myself a little programme an editing one and made a video of 'my'favourite river which after this mornings rain is proberbly like white water rapids now ... they have tamed her ,but from Turners Hill Sussex to Isle of grain she flows  the River Medway ..less her tributaries the Beult,Eden,Teise,Bourne,various and many streams that flow in to her 

dont download it though it will kill ya data lol  

[lassie23]

I hope everyone enjoyed winter 2022/2023, even though 2023 hasn't arrived yet winter is over

[m1chaels]

49 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I hope everyone enjoyed winter 2022/2023, even though 2023 hasn't arrived yet winter is over

During the week of 'winter' we used £15 of gas per day, this week we are using less than half.  I would be happy with a blow torch Atlantic for the rest of the winter perhaps with one more cold snap.  Sorry, up until this year when gas was one quarter the price I was a coldie but things change....

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

During the week of 'winter' we used £15 of gas per day, this week we are using less than half.  I would be happy with a blow torch Atlantic for the rest of the winter perhaps with one more cold snap.  Sorry, up until this year when gas was one quarter the price I was a coldie but things change....

It's an absolute ripoff

[Tn9]

Looking south west from colliers green ..water flowing all over, ,Blantyre open prison in foreground although closed now...  just as I posted that a rainbow appeared,maybe thats where the brinks mat gold is hidden

 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by TN9

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

During the week of 'winter' we used £15 of gas per day, this week we are using less than half.  I would be happy with a blow torch Atlantic for the rest of the winter perhaps with one more cold snap.  Sorry, up until this year when gas was one quarter the price I was a coldie but things change....

How, I had my heating on 24/7 right through and was only using £5/6 a day. Yep much more than last year where it was about 20 a week doing the same thing, but 15 a day, that's madness. 

[Tn9]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

How, I had my heating on 24/7 right through and was only using £5/6 a day. Yep much more than last year where it was about 20 a week doing the same thing, but 15 a day, that's madness. 

But he might live in a 20 bedroom mansion in that case its a steal...:)

[Snowangel-MK]

7 hours ago, MAF said:

 

nothing worse than wet xmas cards   

No Christmas cards ?  

Very soggy and boggy here, hopefully it improves later as off to the land of lights this evening! 

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Snowangel-MK said:

No Christmas cards ?  

Very soggy and boggy here, hopefully it improves later as off to the land of lights this evening! 

Lightland? is that close to lapland or iceland?  

although it sounds more like marshland if it's soggy and boggy  

[MAF]

but wherever you are going, make sure you avoid darklands  

[m1chaels]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

How, I had my heating on 24/7 right through and was only using £5/6 a day. Yep much more than last year where it was about 20 a week doing the same thing, but 15 a day, that's madness. 

Last December when the CET was 6.38 and we used 4400 kwh, this year despite the much lower CET we are on track for 3500 depending on the temperature outrun - I consider that a win.  We are hoping that our annual usage will be down from 38k to 20k.  Has to do something when it looked like our combined bill would go from 2k a year to 8k....

[Snowangel-MK]

3 hours ago, MAF said:

Lightland? is that close to lapland or iceland?  

although it sounds more like marshland if it's soggy and boggy  

It’s a MK thing, was actually dry and very bright

[MAF]

lovely. don't fancy paying the electric bill though  

[MAF]

just viewing the traffic cameras in the states. some large amounts of snow in places and looks pretty bad out there for some  

Traveler Map- New York State Thruway

WWW.THRUWAY.NY.GOV

 

[Snowangel-MK]

45 minutes ago, MAF said:

just viewing the traffic cameras in the states. some large amounts of snow in places and looks pretty bad out there for some  

Traveler Map- New York State Thruway

WWW.THRUWAY.NY.GOV

 

This is what “zero mile visibility” looks like …

[snowrye]

All doom and gloom on the weather front, so a little picture of when the snow started falling the other Sunday. Merry Christmas all, and hopefully the new year will bring us more. 

[Snowangel-MK]

Well the feasting and festivities have well and truly begun here, not much to get excited about weather wise, I think it will be mid January before we see a return to proper winter weather so I’m going  to relax and enjoy a G&T Xmas (green & traditional) cheers merry Christmas to all x 

[classylady]

Each and everyone of us is as unique as a snowflake — hope you all know how special you are……. Merry Christmas. X

[Nick F]

Happy Christmas all fellow southeasteners  

Shame the cold and snowy weather we had wasn't a few weeks later.

But the Christmas festivities can let us take our mind away from the mild and green for a while. Some hints that we may see a change to more blocked and colder early Jan.

[Eagle Eye]

Merry Christmas to all,nice to have talked to a lot of you this year and share my weather thoughts as well. Alqays been a lovely thread this and thanks to all the mods for allowing my deviations from weather lol. Oh and thanks to @Blessed Weather and all the others for the constant weather analysis and forecasts as well,always great to have people who are willing to give up their time to talk about the weather whereas I just don't have anything else going on in my life .