SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Tn9]

22 hours ago, Lauren said:

Is there anywhere that records when the last time a place had rain was? I honestly can't think when when we last had some.

We are banned ..no hose pipes no spinkerlers ..I told you long time ago ..keep a beady eye on accumulation..its not good:(  

 

Heres a link that me and you should read ( I have obviously lol)..coz  I  know somethings up....honest 

 

‘Drought is on the verge of becoming the next pandemic’ | Water | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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The long read: While the world becomes drier, profit and pollution are draining our resources. We have to change our approach

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by TN9

[Lauren]

11 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

That's a good question Lauren and it would be good if someone on here could point us to a source of official station stats (as opposed to amateur readings). The Met Office Historic Station Data only provides monthly stats per station. My old source of such data was a site called Ogimet which provided excellent daily stats for 145 UK stations, but that site doesn't seem to have been updated for a while.

So I have fallen back on using the Netweather Extra Hi-Res Rain Total map to 'see' where rain has fallen. This can be analysed by day, week and month. This shows for Kent that you have to go back to the 15th May to see the last time some patchy rainfall fell for parts of the county. After that dry with the exception of some light showers on the 12th June mainly impacting the Medway Estuary area. Some charts:

15th May

Week 15 - 21 May (the rain shown fell on the 15th)

Week 29 May - 04 Jun

Jun to date (the rain shown fell on the 12th)

So using my rather broad brush methodology it would suggest that most parts of Kent have now gone around 30 days since rain last fell.

Thanks for that, it's very helpful. Almost feels like a good thing to invent!

[Blessed Weather]

After days of clear blue sky some high cloud moving in this evening here in Suffolk. Looking at the GFS hi-res cloud forecast animation for the next 24 hours, tomorrow appears to be a day with little in the way of clear blue sky. Lots of high level cloud about ahead of the front moving in overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing some showers, potentially thundery, for later Sunday.

Cloud incoming from west Saturday 19.45 

GFS 24 hour animation to 20.00 Sunday

[Neilsouth]

14 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

We've missed the storms in this Easterly and have therefore not had any rain since mid May. 

It was surprising to see the lawn turn beige as soon as the temperatures rose. It looks like August out there. 

Yep!! Wasn't exactly a hot MAY either unlike many in the West :( COLD and more COLD!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

14 hours ago, TN9 said:

We are banned ..no hose pipes no spinkerlers ..I told you long time ago ..keep a beady eye on accumulation..its not good:(  

 

Heres a link that me and you should read ( I have obviously lol)..coz  I  know somethings up....honest 

 

‘Drought is on the verge of becoming the next pandemic’ | Water | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

The long read: While the world becomes drier, profit and pollution are draining our resources. We have to change our approach

 

Thames water has said it can't support any more new housing in the Haslemere area, my sister says water bowsers 24/7 are now a regular thing. 

The last recorded rainfall here was the beginning of May, that 30 odd mm is but a distant memory. Every day the chance of rainfall recedes on the 16 day forecast! Re the Guardian article, years ago there was a brilliant children's series (I think it may have been an Australian production) in a dystopian future where water was the most precious thing on the planet. I can't for the life of me remember what it was called. 

[slater]

13 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

After days of clear blue sky some high cloud moving in this evening here in Suffolk. Looking at the GFS hi-res cloud forecast animation for the next 24 hours, tomorrow appears to be a day with little in the way of clear blue sky. Lots of high level cloud about ahead of the front moving in overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing some showers, potentially thundery, for later Sunday.

Cloud incoming from west Saturday 19.45 

GFS 24 hour animation to 20.00 Sunday

Believe it when I see it….seen this so many times and never happens here in the Far East 

[Darkcloud]

Cloudy and a few spots of rain here....need so much more! 20.6°C and feeling quite muggy.

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, slater said:

Believe it when I see it….seen this so many times and never happens here in the Far East 

Lol. Could be a good call slater.

GFS 06z showing no rain on Sunday for parts of Norfolk and Suffolk.

Cumulative rainfall to 23.00 Sunday:

[Lauren]

Thankful for a bit of rain today and forecast for tomorrow. Mainly to knock the pollen out the air because hayfever this year has been BRUTAL, nothing is working and can't find any relief. I don't even usually get it too badly so I feel bad for those who normally have it severely.

 

[lassie23]

hot humid horrendous, can't wait for December 14th 2023.   5 pm first snow of the winter

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

hot humid horrendous, can't wait for December 14th 2023.   5 pm first snow of the winter

I'm gonna remember that date, to see if you guessed right lol.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm gonna remember that date, to see if you guessed right lol.

[Blessed Weather]

Where did that band of rain come from? I can't recall seeing a single forecast suggesting an organised band of showers passing through our Region today.

Thankfully it cleared in time to allow the Hadleigh v Woolpit cricket match to take place today. And the caption for the photo? "Probably the best way to enjoy a Saturday afternoon in the World."

[Eastips85]

10 hours ago, slater said:

Believe it when I see it….seen this so many times and never happens here in the Far East 

Very true! After a few hot days thunderstorms here = sky turns grey, bit of drizzle and that’s it

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook  

Saturday 21:00 - Sunday 21:00

Overnight pulses of elevated storms are likely to hit areas of the SE and a few may form towards the central south. Often, models under model the elevated storms and given the capping over northern France meaning that a lot of the available CAPE hasn't been used up by storms, this looks possible tonight. 

 

A large Theta-W advection with a PBL warm nose is typically a good scenario for strong elevated storms. Saturation at the cloud formation layer up to the EL at 10km looks to be favourable for active storms. However, the amount of CAPE varies significantly between models. MUCAPE could be in excess of 1,000 J/KG or could be as low as 300 J/KG. Either way, something should form perhaps in 2 rounds. Towards midnight and early morning but it depends on the strength of that CAPE.

 

Deep-layer shearing looks quite strong with weak low-level shearing but the amount of CAPE limits the hail potential to very weak. Though 1cm hail may be possible but unlikely.

 

A few elevated storms may persist from today's storms across Ireland. A few as well in England and Wales but very scattered. Generally the SE is the focus for tonight. They develop along a PV lobe with likely gold enough forcing for clusters to form, more akin to the AROME's evolution for the central south and the southeast than the UKV's limited far SE coast view. Though the areas may not be due to that alone and there's a lot of differences between the models still at this range. The WRF also struggles with that convection and its been very good recently but it does give a lot of energy for it. We've decided to keep the night risk to a slght for now.

 

Then as we go through the day, the general risk shifts north towards the midlands and also in Ireland. With locally 2,000 J/KG of SBCAPE and strong bouyancy, storms should form potentially exhibiting Supercellular characteristics for a time with large 3CAPE. Suggesting some 2cm hail possible with some severe hail. Along with some surface flooding possible, a severe risk has been added for parts of the UK and Ireland.

 

The southeast may also pickup on the action mainly to it's north with 1,000 J/KG of SBCAPE predicted there despite it generally being an unfavourable day for the south so some areas may get 1 storm overnight then in the day depending on how everything works out.

 

So strong thunderstorms are possible tonight for the central south and south east, especially the coasts which may be fairly scattered or become a small MCS depending on the forcing. This followed by a switch further north for the risk in the day with severe storms possible.

 

Then, there may be a risk for some areas overnight on Sunday but we have decided not to include that in our forecast.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Meanwhile Georgie is on holiday in northern Spain, very close to the 5% chance of above 5cm hail tomorrow and says if she gets something she will try and film it but is going on a trip by the coast so may struggle to.

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorm developing South West of Hythe? Looks intense on radar!

[Norfolk Sheep]

If anyone's desperate you might catch some lightning on the Brighton webcam!

【LIVE】 Webcam Brighton Pier | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

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Watch our Brighton webcam overlooking the Brighton Pier! Follow the city's major events and explore our free HD cams in the UK.

 

[Neilsouth]

Torrential Downpour here!! :o Flashes to my South ! BRING IT ON!

[kumquat]

Not seeing any sferics on the radar but, yeah, looks like there's enough energy to produce some looking at the rain intensity.

 

Another big batch heading for Hastings.

[Neilsouth]

Thunder towards Hythe! Can hear it from here :)

[lassie23]

just had a quick shower

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorm Towards Canterbury! Bright flash and a boom!

[Darkcloud]

Been rumbling to my South for a while and then sudden strong wind and rain from out of nowhere! Thunder getting closer and louder now and heavy ish rain, the garden will be so happy! 

Thunder seems almost constant now, lots of flashes. 19.1°C

[VillagePlank]

Can see lightning to my south. No sound, yet.

That's quite some distance, so, presumably, they're elevated. Hardly any cloud above, at the minute.

The tracks of these storms look to be heading straight towards me.

Edited June 17, 2023 by VillagePlank