SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Snowangel-MK]

It looks like we are going to have what is known as a “Waxwing winter” … the last one was in the 2010 when over 2,000 birds arrived….interesting  

Edited November 28, 2023 by Snowangel-MK

[Kent Blizzard]

Morning all, nice chilly but sunny start to the day.

The fact the MetO keeps mentioning precipitation in the written forecast is a good thing imo.

Plenty more twist and turns to come, still in the game!!

[BLS]

Kent streamer Thursday night/Friday morning you heard it here first

[pinball wizard]

9 minutes ago, BLS said:

Kent streamer Thursday night/Friday morning you heard it here first

It is a possibility, however odds have reduced overnight. There is still a lot of volatility in model outputs even in close range when looking for the diner details which we need ironed out before a call on precipitation. I'd have thought by tomorrow evening it will be clear enough, personally I'm not confident of seeing anything from this spell other than some frost and the sun, which given the gruesome weather of the last two months is a bonus of sorts in itself. Winter is a long 3 months and hopefully this is the appetiser to a winter very different from last.

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Snowangel-MK said:

It looks like we are going to have what is known as a “Waxwing winter” … the last one was in the 2010 when over 2,000 birds arrived….interesting  

So long as people don't start talking about Grebe's (old bbc snow watch members will know what i mean) 

[throwoff]

57 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

It is a possibility, however odds have reduced overnight. There is still a lot of volatility in model outputs even in close range when looking for the diner details which we need ironed out before a call on precipitation. I'd have thought by tomorrow evening it will be clear enough, personally I'm not confident of seeing anything from this spell other than some frost and the sun, which given the gruesome weather of the last two months is a bonus of sorts in itself. Winter is a long 3 months and hopefully this is the appetiser to a winter very different from last.

I think I am inclined to agree with this currently. 

I am trying to avoid the models till the 12 today.

[Uxbridge90]

Lovely morning, sunny and a bit of a chill in the air. I'd take this every day of winter as it certainly beats cold, wet and miserably grey, yuck. Lows of 2c overnight. 

Looking cold for the next week or so, no settling snow from a IMBY perspective so with that in mind, hopefully it stays dry! 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Uxbridge90

[throwoff]

Fine, I couldn't resist a look.

Seriously starting to think Kent Streamer is possible Thursday/Friday.

I am trying to keep the excitement inside....

[Matty88]

I'm sure there will be some surprises over the coming week or so - including streamers, probably nothing too vast but enough to give some surprise coverings here and there. 

Fingers crossed the wash can deliver a few overnight snow flurries to my neck of the woods!!

Either way we are looking cold and frosty for a good week now, and the breakdown of cold is not yet certain. There is still a small chance something more potent could  set-up next week if the block finds a way of holding. 

[MAF]

So, where are we now? Seems the cold is setting in with little or no precipitation for most. Possible showers coming in off the east coast for the build up of streamers, however, i think it quite unlikely it will be no more than showers and nothing disruptive. 

Either way, we are still not in December, it's winter, it's getting cold and there is chances of some decent frosts. 

elevenses coffee anyone?  

[MAF]

on another note. the famous palm tree located on the roundabout at lambeth bridge is getting uprooted and moved. some may recognize it from a harry potter film as the bus crosses lambeth bridge. will be a shame to not see it there as i walk to work every day, it is being replanted to make way for good old cycle lanes at the roundabout . I wonder if the new lanes will get as much an ignoring as the ones round london most of the time do? 

[MAF]

The news is that the Indian Tunnel collapse people my be extracted today

Quote

Officials say the plan is to send stretchers that have ropes and wheels attached to them inside the micro-tunnel created for the workers to get out.

The trapped men will lie down on the stretchers and rescuers will pull them out of the tunnel one by one.

I just have the theme music for "the great escape" in my head now   

[pinball wizard]

Ok so I've started to look for any signs of streamer potential for Thursday using the UKV model run today at 3am, this run goes a bit longer than the 50hrs of other UKV runs.

Of course this is all academic but that run is suggesting max temps at 3pm Thursday of around 4/5c on suffolk, essex coast, going down to 2/3c a little further inland. 

What is getting my attention is a look at the predicted wind directions. Increasingly between 3pm and 6pm there are signs of wind convergence, with northerly winds blowing down across inland east anglia meeting easterly winds coming in from the sea. Where these winds converge you would expect sufficient lift of moisture to see ppn development. 

At the same time, aided by onset of nightfall we see temperatures falling. This means there MAY be a window of opportunity for streamers to set up through late afternoon and into evening.

Of course no certainty in this and IF it did occur then it would likely only bring ppn across a narrow strip likely along coastal areas from thames estuary up to essex/suffolk border.

Something to keep an eye on over next 48hrs but low chance and even then it could be a sleety mess. Fingers crossed though

Edited November 28, 2023 by pinball wizard

[MAF]

So nothing like 2nd/3rd Feb 2009 then  

But, as i have felt all along with this current setup. PPN will be minimum, it's all about the cold this time round i think.

[BLS]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

Fine, I couldn't resist a look.

Seriously starting to think Kent Streamer is possible Thursday/Friday.

I am trying to keep the excitement inside....

Some high res models seem to be hinting at the possibility now 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, BLS said:

Kent streamer Thursday night/Friday morning you heard it here first

Hope it's snow and not like last night's.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, MAF said:

on another note. the famous palm tree located on the roundabout at lambeth bridge is getting uprooted and moved. some may recognize it from a harry potter film as the bus crosses lambeth bridge. will be a shame to not see it there as i walk to work every day, it is being replanted to make way for good old cycle lanes at the roundabout . I wonder if the new lanes will get as much an ignoring as the ones round london most of the time do? 

Oh, that's actually quite sad , place won't look the same.

[throwoff]

1 hour ago, BLS said:

Some high res models seem to be hinting at the possibility now 

Starting to think it is more likely now. I think I am most interested for tomorrow's runs.

[Summer tyre]

3 hours ago, MAF said:

on another note. the famous palm tree located on the roundabout at lambeth bridge is getting uprooted and moved. some may recognize it from a harry potter film as the bus crosses lambeth bridge. will be a shame to not see it there as i walk to work every day, it is being replanted to make way for good old cycle lanes at the roundabout . I wonder if the new lanes will get as much an ignoring as the ones round london most of the time do? 

i

I was trying to visualise that, as it didn't look familiar at all. As I spent 8 years in London by Lambeth Bridge I was a bit puzzled. And then it came to me - I hardly ever went across the bridge to the north; I always used Westminster Bridge! I had to check it on Google Streetview.

[MAF]

4 minutes ago, Snow tyre said:

I was trying to visualise that, as it didn't look familiar at all. As I spent 8 years in London by Lambeth Bridge I was a bit puzzled. And then it came to me - I hardly ever went across the bridge to the north; I always used Westminster Bridge! I had to check it on Google Streetview.

So you were lambeth palace side where the fire brigade hq is and international maritime org.

[Robbie Coldrain]

Darren Bett pretty much dismissed any chance of snow down south. Maybe some for the tops of the hills on Dartmoor, but other than that dry and cooler than average.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Robbie Coldrain

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

Darren Bett pretty much dismissed any chance of snow down south. Maybe some for the top of hills on Dartmoor, but other than that dry and cooler than average.

He has been very underwhelming these last few days with his forecasts. That said; I think he is pretty right about any ppn so like him or not the forecast he is presenting is possibly correct.

Edited November 28, 2023 by MAF

[Summer tyre]

10 minutes ago, MAF said:

So you were lambeth palace side where the fire brigade hq is and international maritime org.

Yes, correct. All sorts of interesting buildings on the South.

[lawrenk]

Looking more like a bust for us, in terms of snow, during this cold period, though could still change I suppose.

Don’t want to sound too glass half empty but I’m always a bit wary when people say “don’t worry, winters not even properly started yet, there’ll be plenty more chances”. Down here, it feels like we get less and less opportunities each year and that they need to produce when they do come along, not that the weather cares either way of course!

[MAF]

10 minutes ago, Snow tyre said:

Yes, correct. All sorts of interesting buildings on the South.

Yeah i remember a james bond scene with one of those interesting buildings in it.