South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[seajamiet]

Travelling back to Glos by train this evening from Surrey. Hoping the trees hold up just long enough!

[DaveL]

I don't like the look of the 12Z GFS, which has a secondary Low of 972Mb crossing N Wales - if it comes off, it will squeeze the isobars and push them further south. Downgraded to 65mph gusts by Met Office here but upgraded again to 70-75 by that new GFS.

One point to note  is that the RED warning area says 70-90mph gusts while the Amber area right along the south says 60-80 mph gusts. That means a lot of overlap and the rest of us are perilously close to RED at the moment. I'll be up early to warn my daughter and her kids if necessary!

 

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by DaveL

[dr weather]

I live right on the North Somerset coast (Portishead), with views of Avonmouth and Wales, I'll post some video of anything hairy or interesting tomorrow morning, e.g. my back fence interfering with the shipping lane.

 

edit: the shape of this coming storm reminds me of the St Stephens Day/Boxing Day storm of 1998. I witnessed that first hand on the west side of Ireland, it's probably the most brutal wind storm I've experienced.

Edited February 17, 2022 by dr weather

[matt111]

All loose objects moved in the garden and my weather station, which needed straightening anyway, has been checked over and tightened. Oh and great timing I've just found the backup batteries in the weather station are dead and I'm unlikely to be able to get any before tomorrow now 

[DaveL]

32 minutes ago, matt111 said:

All loose objects moved in the garden and my weather station, which needed straightening anyway, has been checked over and tightened. Oh and great timing I've just found the backup batteries in the weather station are dead and I'm unlikely to be able to get any before tomorrow now 

 

Get yoursel up to Tesco in New Milton, they usually have a good range of batteries, they even stock my Davis VP2 batteries locally!

[noggin]

BUSES.....All bus services in Bristol, South Glos, W-S-M, North Somerset and Wells tomorrow are cancelled until at least 1pm. Limited services in Bath.

Ian Ferguson said that this storm could be "of historic proportions". 

I must check to see if my MOT and service are still on!

[Lorraine]

In the last hour our local village schools have just said they won't be open tomorrow. I think we've secured whatever can be secured , candles ready if needed. Everytime we get something like this the powerline comes down. Last time it actually disconnected from the house side. 

[Andy Bown]

Literally the calm before the storm right now, not a breath of wind. Eerie when you know what is coming!

The day was gusty and mostly sunny although with one heavy shower early afternoon.

[khodds]

Just had a walk up Glastonbury Tor, nice and calm right now (bit blowy up the top, but back down here it’s calm)… car moved into more sheltered spot, everything secured, candles and camping kettle at the ready. Work have said I can work from home and kids school shut. I know I won’t sleep tonight.. excitement and worry combined.. stay safe everyone 

[meshellby]

52 minutes ago, khodds said:

Just had a walk up Glastonbury Tor, nice and calm right now (bit blowy up the top, but back down here it’s calm)… car moved into more sheltered spot, everything secured, candles and camping kettle at the ready. Work have said I can work from home and kids school shut. I know I won’t sleep tonight.. excitement and worry combined.. stay safe everyone 

Exactly how I feel! Rain has just started here, heavier than I thought it would be. Safe times to us all x

[nettie]

I think we are ready, feel better knowing my mum has decided to stay home tomorrow also my son's college is shut and my youngest daughter who is at Exeter uni said they have all been asked to take extra care while moving around to stay away from the wooded areas of the campus. Eldest daughter has been told to work from home my other half has to go in to work incase of power cuts to make sure all the back up generators keep going. Like most have said very calm here at the moment just had some rain which seems to have stopped now.

Stay safe everyone. 

[Slysi100]

Wind starting to pick up in South Devon, she's coming

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Our school is still open! Scared to death about getting up and doing this school run in this. It's ridiculus!

[matt111]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Our school is still open! Scared to death about getting up and doing this school run in this. It's ridiculus!

Can't be many that are locally. Round here they're all closed now as are a lot of others across parts of Hampshire from what I've seen

[TwisterGirl81]

Well time for bed, wonder how it’ll be in the morning…Winds slowly picking up here in Exeter.

Stay safe

[*Stormforce~beka*]

30 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Can't be many that are locally. Round here they're all closed now as are a lot of others across parts of Hampshire from what I've seen

Have to see what they do in the morning! It's mad though and i'm too nervous to sleep!

[DanDorsetUK]

Poole n Bournemouth and IOW have just scraped inside the Red Alert! Surprised the Southcoast isn't in one to be honest. 

 

[meshellby]

How is everyone faring so far? It seems to have just picked up in the last 15 mins, fairly quiet before that.

[DanDorsetUK]

Freak Gust here in Candford Cliffs just now came from Nowhere. Taking the Dog out now just incase. 

[Dorsetbred]

Off out in 15mins, chance to see how things are so far this morning..pressure drop of 18mb in the last 12hours.

[suxer]

Not to bad in yeovil at the moment, occasional heavy gusts

[khodds]

I honestly thought we would be in the thick of it right now. But it seems normal out there currently?

[Bill]

Not too bad in The Stroud area at the minute, no worse than Wednesday really. Things may change in the coming hours, obviously.

[Dorsetbred]

And finally (03:44 this morning) the affect RED area was changed

Having been out and around whilst not tranquil, right now it's not that bad out there, as people are moving about, buses running as normal, people going to work as normal.

Of course the peak as suggested will be late morning, pressure fall rate per hour has eased at 0.6mb/hr for the moment

The above is the 12:00 forecast so some way to go yet..

Meanwhile the surf looking choppy at the moment, but a lot of beach still visible

[lettice]

Woke up to a red zone.
Not bad here at the moment.
Winds picked up about an hour ago, SW 16-20mph, occasional gusts 20-25mph and a few 30-32mph.

But forecasts here have changed this morning for us, 70-71mph from 10am to 2pm.