South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[Mike Poole]

I’ll just drop this in here for tomorrow hot off the press from the ECM 12z run…

[Mapantz]

12 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Unbelievably poor. I shan't be staying up tonight 

Something @Man With Beard said earlier about these systems usually scooting along the south coast.. strange to see it being modelled a fraction further north on each run.

[AWD]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I’ll just drop this in here for tomorrow hot off the press from the ECM 12z run…

Hate to say it but those charts are purely designed to generate false hope amongst the snow community.  Rarely, if ever do they come to fruition.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’ll just drop this in here for tomorrow hot off the press from the ECM 12z run…

Cornwall Snow Shied has been turned on!

Take these charts with a pinch of salt.

[John88B]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’ll just drop this in here for tomorrow hot off the press from the ECM 12z run…

12cm right over me. Cheers Mike but I'll believe it when I see it

[Hampshire Hillbilly]

We had a short period of heavy snow this morning 6.30-7am which just started to lie before it petered out. 
 

Hants council have just asked us to fit the snowplough on the tractor. 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Hate to say it but those charts are purely designed to generate false hope amongst the snow community.  Rarely, if ever do they come to fruition.

I don't expect to see much round here, so much hype on bbc weather 5 - 10cm 

Its not even gonna settle here or at best a slushy cm melting rapidly. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Something @Man With Beard said earlier about these systems usually scooting along the south coast.. strange to see it being modelled a fraction further north on each run.

It is.  Normally, they tend to correct south.  But, I think you have to bear in mind that in this unusual setup, the fortunes of this low are tied to the next one (Thursday), which is showing as weaker on the models and correcting south, while this one is deepening proportionately and thus correcting north.  

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, John88B said:

12cm right over me. Cheers Mike but I'll believe it when I see it

Sure, the depth charts are just for fun, the track, however, doesn’t have much room to manoeuvre from here until tomorrow, so I’m confident some of us will see something.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

while this one is deepening proportionately and thus correcting north.

Normally I would agree, but the UKV has modelled the low to have the same central pressure since yesterday's 09Z - 982mb. It has had that same figure for 12 runs.

[dr weather]

28 minutes ago, khodds said:

I just can’t see how it’s going to get cold enough to snow tonight onward. it’s been far too warm today and the low pressure incoming is surely going to be bringing warm air up from the south? It’s still 5c here

I think if there is enough  snow falling and for long enough then it can have a cooling effect to drop the air temperature sufficiently at ground level. The approaching warmer, moist air would be forced above, causing more precipitation and almost a cumulative effect. Obviously, the battle lines vary in regards to where the warm air trumps the cold air and simply results in rain.

(caveat: my weather knowledge is rudimentary and self-taught so this assessment could be less than accurate!!!)

[Mapantz]

Met Office will have to adjust their warning, there's absolutely no scope for ice down here, let alone snow.

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Met Office will have to adjust their warning, there's absolutely no scope for ice down here, let alone snow.

I am normally more positive but I have to agree I just don't see it for many in our region.

[Easily sled]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’ll just drop this in here for tomorrow hot off the press from the ECM 12z run…

just seen that. I don’t know what to believe tbh.  Window/lamppost it is I think!

[Blizzardof82]

Chris Fawkes latest tweet is interesting centre of low now further south

 

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Normally I would agree, but the UKV has modelled the low to have the same central pressure since yesterday's 09Z - 982mb. It has had that same figure for 12 runs.

I’ve not followed it on UKV to be honest.  But over the last few days there has certainly been a correlation on model runs between taking this low north, and the next one south, and vice versa.  Only today a definite trend towards the northerly track of this storm, and southerly track of the next one.

[Mapantz]

I'm in a good spot for more technical observations; that small low has been modelled to track right over the top of here, so it will be fun to keep an eye on my barometric sensor when the time comes! 

[Theresnoway]

23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Met Office will have to adjust their warning, there's absolutely no scope for ice down here, let alone snow.

Temperature dropping quickly, let’s see how low it goes!

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Theresnoway

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

Temperature dropping quickly, let’s see how low it goes!

 

You're dropping quickly! Still above 4°C here.

I have just seen that my Davis station is showing it's fabled snowflake icon. IT'S ON! hehehe

[Mark Parsons]

26 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I am normally more positive but I have to agree I just don't see it for many in our region.

It isn't going to take much for evaporative cooling to take place with heavy ppn and little wind.

[Hampshire Hillbilly]

1c here already. 
 

I can’t keep up with the Model thread but N Hampshire at 200m now seems to possibly be in line for three separate snowfalls in the next few days? 

[Liam Burge]

I dare say but some people may wake up tomorrow morning with some snow on the ground!! I'm starting to get excited, seems like Bristol could do quite well from this little event.

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp 0.9c dew point -2.4c

[SteveB]

Ain't nothing to get excited about for my location. Just seen Ians forecast  

[Liam Burge]

28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’ve not followed it on UKV to be honest.  But over the last few days there has certainly been a correlation on model runs between taking this low north, and the next one south, and vice versa.  Only today a definite trend towards the northerly track of this storm, and southerly track of the next one.

Yep! The models really have no clue about these systems, so it's going to be a nowcast and radar watching fest tomorrow! Thankfully I have the day off University tomorrow. I have a feeling the low on Thursday is going to keep trending more south though, and the M4 corridor could be in with another shout at some snow.

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Ain't nothing to get excited about for my location. Just seen Ians forecast  

Sadly W-S-M rarely does good on snow setups.