Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Polar Bear]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Now that's some 18Z action!

  

Can I swear on here?  

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Some uncertainty regarding that second hook, but yeah if it comes off I think we could well see 80mph go through parts of southern NW regions and into the Midlands.

 

In all fairness ive not sat in any detail to compare enough models just a select few that looked sinister for the time of day. Whats the general consensus?

[jamesbhx]

1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

I wouldn’t trust BBC automated forecasts. They still have me for 68mph gusts for here in Leicester. 

I haven't trusted the BBC since the weather girl on Midlands Today once said "...brightening up as the night goes on".

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Tommytomtom said:

I live just north of Leicester and the bbc has just downgraded our friday wind speeds from 71 max to 53 max with a new snow icon too.

 

1 minute ago, ModestMention said:

The BBC website has downgraded the winds to 53mph for my area.

The Met office is at 67mph

Hey guys, don’t fixate on what appears on BBC or apps, it will be just the latest GFS or ECM or whatever…stick with the bigger picture, which is that the southern UK (the whole of it) is in a right mess from a storm which is now guaranteed but for which some details are uncertain.  

Apps just show the last run.  

I’m sure folks in here will do better in pinpointing the areas that might be most affected.  

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Now that's some 18Z action!

  

Dare I say that looks a little stronger than the previous run!

[Wivenswold]

POLITE REMINDER: Apps showing weather forecasts are merely reflecting one model run. Weather forecasting is far more complicated than apps and simplified maps can convey, unfortunately they lead to absolutist comments like "Met Office have downgraded us" or "forecast is all over the place for my location", "it said snow earlier now it's got rain [sad face emoji]".

If you want to learn about the weather, learn how to read weather maps, compare the various models, runs and ensembles, then you too will never have to type in a postcode for the "latest" forecast.

[Thunder Snow]

Wind has been pretty intense here.from around 3pm reports theres some overhead wires down at Carlisle station

[Mark Smithy]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Now that's some 18Z action!

  

Thanks for this. I'm Just going to pop the earlier charts up as well because the south-west and south wales are in for an incredible storm going by them. These wind speeds are serious.

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

BBC Weather, St Austell which is the nearest town has wind speeds gusts of 83mph, yet the postcode is 64mph...

Edited February 16, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Any graphics for the 3-5pm times buddy?

Yeah I’d be interested to see too. That second hook looks to hit between 1-5

Can already see funnelling effect down the Mersey on that last chart.

Edited February 16, 2022 by CreweCold

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, jamesbhx said:

I haven't trusted the BBC since the weather girl on Midlands Today once said "...brightening up as the night goes on".

Hotta be Shefali?

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Any graphics for the 3-5pm times buddy?

Peak 2-4pm for us:

      

edit: for @CreweCold as well.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[Andrew Hurcomb]

Met Off predicted winds here in Hereford for Storm Dudley 48-49mph. So far today we have hit 46mph, so not far off.  Storm Eunice they predict 61mph, but I think it will go higher here.

[Wivenswold]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

BBC Weather, St Austell which is the nearest town has wind speeds gusts of 83mph, yet the postcode is 64mph...

Exactly, bin the apps. Read the posts analysing model output and ask questions if you're not sure. We're a friendly bunch. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Peak 2-4pm for us:

      

edit: for @CreweCold as well.

Crikey!

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z completes the backtrack to the others, T39, T42:

Confirming its status as a bit rubbish…

No way out now, ICON has bit the dust, this storm is happening, it is a question of who, where and how now…

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Paul]

@Nick F has written an in-depth analysis on Eunice, well worth a read..

Major Storm Eunice this Friday - synoptic analysis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A synoptic analysis of Storm Eunice, which is forecast to bring damaging winds to England and Wales, along with snow to northern England and Scotland

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Peak 2-4pm for us:

      

Wow  that hook  some severe winds there  all the way down to around here.  This storm justs seems to be upgrading

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Peak 2-4pm for us:

      

Yeah going off that, a huge chunk of England and Wales is in for at least an hour of damaging winds on friday. I cant remember seeing such wide spread gusts and @CreweCold your definitely in the firing line early afternoon. The strongest winds look brought forward by an hour or two however to help with rush hour

Forgot to say thanks @Steel City Skies

Edited February 16, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z completes the climbdown, T39, T42:

Confirming its status as a bit rubbish…

No way out now, ICON has bit the dust, this storm is happening, it is a question of who, where and how now…

So it's further south and slightly weaker?

[Mark Smithy]

Following that UKV Met Office output this is an incredible storm brewing. It's not just the intensity but the extent of it. Right across the whole southern half of Britain going by that. And if those windspeeds verify then there's going to be considerable damage.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So it's further south and slightly weaker?

NO! Quite the reverse, it’s climbing down from its own nonsense and representing the storm proper!  Have edited my earlier post, don’t want to mislead folks!

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

NO! Quite the reverse, it’s climbing down from its own nonsense and representing the storm proper!

Oh sorry, I thought the other photo was the 12z run. 

[Alexis]

Can't see anything other option than a pretty widespread red warning from the Met tomorrow at 10.30am after the Chief Forecaster's meeting.

[marksp]

getting rough tonight, 4 power outages at 225 mtrs family at Middleton 310mtrs saying its getting dangerous, and this is DOUGLAS

gone only only knows what Eunice will bring.

 

candles are out, in case, phones, laptops charged  , hell the cat (15 years old ) is out in it, he's an old timer, haha.

 

everyone keep safe, its gonner be a rough ride