Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Some of this 'downgrade' stuff is complete nonsense. Simply bears no relation to the actual charts or what professional forecasters are adding.

The depth of the low has, if anything, intensified and peak depth is tending to occur over the UK now rather than in the Bristol channel.

This is a severe storm that is going to cause widespread disruption and damage.

Actual wind gusts will become easier to forecast later in the day and overnight.

 

It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. One person's downgrade is someone else's upgrade with this evolving situation. What @JamesC is arguing is trivial and needless as run to run we will see the peak gusts slightly alter - for some decreasing, for others increasing. It remains a very dangerous storm.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[JamesC]

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Some of this 'downgrade' stuff is complete nonsense. Simply bears no relation to the actual charts or what professional forecasters are adding.

The depth of the low has, if anything, intensified and peak depth is tending to occur over the UK now rather than in the Bristol channel.

This is a severe storm that is going to cause widespread disruption and damage.

Actual wind gusts will become easier to forecast later in the day and overnight.

 

I mean the UKV wind speed charts are literally showing a decrease in windspeeds for a majority of areas when compared to yesterday afternoon / evening.....not sure how these bear no relation to the 'actual charts'. 

Literally no one (except one or two looking to 'poke the bear') have said this is not a severe storm? Not sure how this is nonsense...

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, JamesC said:

So you decided to ignore the time stamps from yesterday which was the point of the post? 

Besides the charts you posted do show a slight decrease in wind speed in a large portion of England.......

Please post the charts from 18z / 21z from yesterday with the same comment as you made above....

Perhaps you should take a step back and look at the bigger picture rather than saying "downgrade" every time. It really isn't helpful!

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Just looked at these from the UKV and some areas look like the gusts have weakened a bit, albeit still very strong. However looks to have strengthened for some of us in the SW and South Wales.

 

96 over Dover wasn't there before.

[Mark Smithy]

Sky News on their front page have just put up an 'explainer' about sting jets:

What is a sting jet and how could it make Storm Eunice deadly?

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

A sting jet refers to a small area of extremely intense wind that can form inside storms passing across the UK, Ireland and parts of Europe. Although rare, it could occur when Storm Eunice...

 

[Ross90]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Perhaps you should take a step back and look at the bigger picture rather than saying "downgrade" every time. It really isn't helpful!

If the models are showing decreased wind speeds compared to previous days then surely it is a downgrade? Plus 9 times out of 10 storms do get downgraded as they move closer to the event...

[jimben]

People should bear in mind that many southern and western areas will be without electricity and the internet from tomorrow for some time. If your only source of lighting, heating and cooking is from electricity alternative plans should be made 

[JamesC]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. One person's downgrade is someone else's upgrade with this evolving situation. What @JamesC is arguing is trivial and needless as run to run we will see the peak gusts slightly alter - for some decreasing, for others increasing. It remains a very dangerous storm.

My trivial point is that windspeeds for the majority of areas (yes of course a minority have increased) have dropped circa 10mph on the UKV from yesterday afternoon. Please have a look at those charts, post them on here and please point out where I am wrong. I am new to this (ish) and would love to learn. 

Either way it remains a very dangerous storm. 

[kold weather]

In all fairness the UKV 09z IS considerably less severe for about 75% of the warning zone, its gone from 75-85mph to peaking most around the 70mph mark away from the red zone and quite a few are more in the 60-65mph range.

Still strong and it is of course just one run that may shift around so best not to pay too much attention...but yeah, when compared to yesterdays runs its MUCH less severe looking on the latest UKV.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by kold weather

[JamesC]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Perhaps you should take a step back and look at the bigger picture rather than saying "downgrade" every time. It really isn't helpful!

But the bigger picture according to the UKV is showing a decrease in windspeeds (for the majority), a few others are also now picking up on this.....

Personally I'm quite thankful and find this potential trend very helpful.

[Dbarb]

It's literally one model run, I could say the same about it being an upgrade by looking at other models for my area

[johnholmes]

This is well wroth watching as it shows the latest available run of the low then available to UK Met, they may have further data though by the time the broadcast was made. Even so it show where the very strongest winds are anticipated and the approximate time.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Maybe sometimes it's better to call it a change in track of the strongest winds, rather than an upgrade/downgrade. Yes, a reduction in max gust prediction for a given area could be called a downgrade for that area, but it avoids the suggestion that the system overall has been upgraded/downgraded. The track uncertainty is going to result in predicted max gusts fluctuating for a good few hours yet.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, JamesC said:

My trivial point is that windspeeds for the majority of areas (yes of course a minority have increased) have dropped circa 10mph on the UKV from yesterday afternoon. Please have a look at those charts, post them on here and please point out where I am wrong. I am new to this (ish) and would love to learn. 

Either way it remains a very dangerous storm. 

My point is that we are going to see differences run to run. As enthusiasts we can't help but over analyse models that publish eight times a day. Yes, I don't doubt that wind speeds have dropped slightly for some on the UKV 09z - which is one run, but unless that trend maintains on the 12z, 15z, 18z etc etc then it only warrants a passing comment rather than the definite terms that Eunice is 'downgrading'. It is too premature to say this and will only result in complacency, IMO  

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[JamesC]

3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

It's literally one model run, I could say the same about it being an upgrade by looking at other models for my area

I think you miss the point about it's not relevant to your area or my area. It's relevant to the country...

Every run from circa 12z yesterday to now is showing a slight decrease in windspeeds for the majority.

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is well wroth watching as it shows the latest available run of the low then available to UK Met, they may have further data though by the time the broadcast was made. Even so it show where the very strongest winds are anticipated and the approximate time.

sorry wrong link, the one I intended is the one with the video forecast from UK Met this morning, a bit further back

 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

My point is that we are going to see differences run to run. As enthusiasts we can't help but over analyse models that publish eight times a day. Yes, I don't doubt that wind speeds have dropped slightly for some on the UKV 09z - which is one run, but unless that trend maintains on the 12z, 15z, 18z etc etc then it only warrants a passing comment rather than the definite terms that Eunice is 'downgrading'. It is too premature to say this and will only result in complacency, IMO  

 

That is true, With that being said you can start to see trends emerging subtly in the models, and that is for an easing away from some of the more extreme figures seen yesterday for large portions of the warning zone. Not to say it won't still be very stormy, nor does that take away from the risk of sting jets, etc but it does highlight the problems with issuing red alerts for areas that you don't have total confidence in yet. For example the 09z UKV absolutely does not justify an extension to the red alert zone.

Overall I have to agree with James C comments.

Edited February 17, 2022 by kold weather

[Ross90]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

My point is that we are going to see differences run to run. As enthusiasts we can't help but over analyse models that publish eight times a day. Yes, I don't doubt that wind speeds have dropped slightly for some on the UKV 09z - which is one run, but unless that trend maintains on the 12z, 15z, 18z etc etc then it only warrants a passing comment rather than the definite terms that Eunice is 'downgrading'. It is too premature to say this and will only result in complacency, IMO  

 

Too premature to say for certain but it is following the same path as other storms. Starts off as a nationwide 90 - 100mph then slowly drops as you get closer to the event. If it starts to downgrade at 24 - 36 hrs then it's very rare that later runs will be an upgrade. 

[JamesC]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

My point is that we are going to see differences run to run. As enthusiasts we can't help but over analyse models that publish eight times a day. Yes, I don't doubt that wind speeds have dropped slightly for some on the UKV 09z, but unless that trend maintains on the 12z, 15z, 18z etc etc then it warrants a passing comment rather than the definite terms that Eunice is downgrading. it is too premature to say this and will only result in complacency, IMO  

 

It has maintained on the 12z, 15z, 18z, 21z. I literally stated that in the 1st post. That was the entire point of the post. It is a trend already....

Anyway enough of this and back to the model watching

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The comments re: "This wont be as bad as 1987" are somewhat unfounded and are underplaying what could potentially be a very disruptive & dangerous storm. 

The damage caused in 1987 was the result of a sting jet, that storm is the reason we know sting jets exist, the phenomena was largely discovered as a result of that storm. It's made more famous by the fact it was largely un-forecasted.

Storm Eunice could bring widespread inland gusts of 70-80mph. 1987 didn't even do that, the strongest gusts were reserved for coastal regions/within the sting jet. Some of the modelling for tomorrow is concerning, for context, the Burns Day storm in 1990 brought the strongest recorded winds on record to the London area of 87mph, some of the more extreme modelling for tomorrow challenge that record. 

I don't necessarily agree with comparing tomorrow with 87 or Burns Day, however I do think some are underplaying this quite a bit.

1987 according to wiki was a 1 in 200 year event with max speed of 122mph in the UK. I don't see that happening tomorrow, but think it's likely to hit a 100-110mph. As you say though daytime and over a larger area has the potential for as much damage even if a bit weaker.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Snowy L

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

 

The current Red includes significant areas of population by the way, Bristol and Cardiff among them.

This is very nasty.

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Jayne aka Pembsgal
wrong post

[ThundersnowDays]

definitely the calm before the storm today! bbc forecasting 76mph gusts for me which is the highest I’ve ever seen for my inland area , stay safe everyone!

[Zookeeper]

Whilst not wanting to reignite the Met Office warning debate, could anyone tell me why they haven't included Bristol in it? We're right on the edge of the red but as a major population area I would have thought that the impact might be higher even if wind speeds are a bit lower

NB - it does say Bristol in the listed areas for red but if you put in Bristol on the app it's an amber warning not red. It's only the airport and Avonmouth that's in the red.

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

2 minutes ago, Jayne aka Pembsgal said:

 

It appears to be missing Pembrokeshire now, we've missed the dreaded red warning, but things can change!  There were a few gusts here a few minutes ago, still beautiful blue skies fooling us though.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Jayne aka Pembsgal
spelling mistake

[Liam Burge]

Just now, ThundersnowDays said:

definitely the calm before the storm today! bbc forecasting 76mph gusts for me which is the highest I’ve ever seen for my inland area , stay safe everyone!

Yeah, very calm here too. The sun has just started poking it's head out and the wind is almost non existent.