Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Cableguy]

Risk of damaging winds here does seem to have reduced somewhat, something I'm very grateful of if correct. 

[Downburst]

6 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm gas too! Will need a match to light it but other than that ...! Just been out and taken the gazebo over the chickens down, tied lids to feed bins, brought our dustbins up to the house. Laid some stuff down. Other bits are loose but as I don't have a shed to put them in they will have to chance it!! Got batteries for battery candles, got a shopping list for local Tescos after school run, need matches and pillar candles if they have any ...!, some tinned food, could do with some more milk, battery pack for phone on charge. I think I am as prepared as I can be now.  Almost ...!

the number of your insurance company on hand, sorry to say, but if an emergency etc. Roofing contractors are probably trying to figure out how to prioritize the calls they'll be getting

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I'm hoping for 81mph...I like the excitement of extremes 

ps just heard that some schools are closing here in Devon tomorrow

I would like to see 80 mph here too. But in London i feel those strengths would be very damaging given the amount of houses/building sites/tall buildings/wheelie bins......

[southern_softie]

5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm gas too! Will need a match to light it but other than that ...! Just been out and taken the gazebo over the chickens down, tied lids to feed bins, brought our dustbins up to the house. Laid some stuff down. Other bits are loose but as I don't have a shed to put them in they will have to chance it!! Got batteries for battery candles, got a shopping list for local Tescos after school run, need matches and pillar candles if they have any ...!, some tinned food, could do with some more milk, battery pack for phone on charge. I think I am as prepared as I can be now.  Almost ...!

We're on firewood, bottled gas for cooking and flaky electricity..    I'll probably empty the woodshed this evening, bring the rest of this winters wood inside, just in case.  Nothing much I can do about the trees in the garden..   if they fall then I'll be out there turning them into logs for next winter.

[SP1986]

As the storm moves east, after it has pummelled southern areas, and is causing issues in the southeast, the UKV wants to cause problems in the northwest of England.. obviously this is a bit imby, and may not happen, but there is not much representation on here of the back edge effects for the northwest, and north Midlands. UKV, if you can trust its projections showing a swathe of winds approaching 85mph on the coast, and around 70-75mph down the 'Cheshire Gap', no doubt due to funnelling. It could of course be way off the mark, but the potential is there.

Edited February 17, 2022 by SP1986

[johnholmes]

Too early for the first check on the movement of the storm but between 100-1400Z to be accurate, but the track SUGGESTS Rosslare to nw Wales to the Humber esturary . This first approximation is unreliable though, it needs another 4-6 hours to get a better check on its track. It is deepening at the rate of 1.5 mb per hour, and increasing on that now. So far no indication in sw Eire, station Valentia of a fall. Just about stopped a slight rise. The tendency will be for it to move to the left of its initial track as it deepens. So the current suggestion is as far south as it can go in my view, and going to be nearer the UK Met prediction on thier Fax charts. They will already have taken this into consideration.

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

 

[Bald Eagle]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

I would like to see 80 mph here too. But in London i feel those strengths would be very damaging given the amount of houses/building sites/tall buildings/wheelie bins......

Put your head out the window going down a motorway... preferably as a passenger. Its not fun.

[ANYWEATHER]

35 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Schools round my area are closed tomorrow. I am going to find a good spot to get the best wind speeds. Someone has to do it!

On top of the Severn Bridge

[FetchCB]

36 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

No it'll be 15z this data will be in, 12z has already run, we just haven't seen it yet

UKV takes hourly observations as part of its 4D-VAR Data assimilation. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Candle central here. It may be dark but it’ll be a mix of Home Bargains/IKEA big scented candles throughout

Hahahaa! I don't have many I thought we had loads. Just tried to get a Amazon delivery for tomorrow but oddly enough can't get owt til Saturday!

[Midlander]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

I would like to see 80 mph here too. But in London i feel those strengths would be very damaging given the amount of houses/building sites/tall buildings/wheelie bins......

Same I would like to experience 80mph + winds, potentially a once in a lifetime opportunity for inland locations

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 minutes ago, Downburst said:

the number of your insurance company on hand, sorry to say, but if an emergency etc. Roofing contractors are probably trying to figure out how to prioritize the calls they'll be getting

God knows where that is. Hubby deals with all that. He thinks i'm making a mountain out of a mole hill as it is! We are sheltered by salisbury plain so not expecting it to be much here. But I like to be prepared any way.

[Panayiotis]

Growing concern that the Met might be missing a swathe of stronger winds across the midlands as Eunice pulls away. AROME showing the area where stronger gusts may occur and I do believe this needs watching with the upcoming runs ..

Edited February 17, 2022 by Panayiotis

[MAF]

6 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

Put your head out the window going down a motorway... preferably as a passenger. Its not fun.

Or out the back of a chinook  

[sidders54]

Some schools have been closed just south of Bath

[khodds]

16 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Schools around here are being advised to close aswell. This is getting real.

Mine are in Wells and not had anything yet but wells is just outside the red warning 

[Wynn D Woo]

My sons school is switching to remote learning tomorrow.

[snowdog]

Dorset council have advised all schools to close tomorrow. 

[Theresnoway]

49 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Most of England is already under an amber warning. I honestly don't know what people want?

Its about using judgement. In their defence, calling red warnings all the time that turn out not to be needed is more damaging than waiting and seeing what is needed.

There’s a lot of irritability on here today, my comment related to ‘IF’ a red warning was issued later tomorrow morning .

I have faith in what the Met-Office are capable of, as it sounds like you do! 

[Pixel]

Not sure when this chart updates but:

WXCHARTS

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

looking pretty nasty out there tomorrow afternoon round these parts - I think the black line could be a predicted sting jet? 

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Growing concern that the Met might be missing a swathe of stronger winds across the midlands as Eunice pulls away. AROME showing the area where stronger gusts may occur and I do believe this needs watching with the upcoming runs ..

Don’t they have an amber warning out?

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

As the storm moves east, after it has pummelled southern areas, and is causing issues in the southeast, the UKV wants to cause problems in the northwest of England.. obviously this is a bit imby, and may not happen, but there is not much representation on here of the back edge effects for the northwest, and north Midlands. UKV, if you can trust its projections showing a swathe of winds approaching 85mph on the coast, and around 70-75mph down the 'Cheshire Gap', no doubt due to funnelling. It could of course be way off the mark, but the potential is there.

Having lived in Stoke-on-Trent for the past 6 years, I’ve learned that people ignore any risk of severe in this region.

Edited February 17, 2022 by MattStoke

[Rickent]

40 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

A double decker bus blew over in Hadleigh, Suffolk during the St Jude storm in 2013. Hopefully your boss will be sensible enough to cancel your journeys tomorrow!

I might cancel them myself and just stay home,  not worth risking my life.

[marshman3]

Yes, schools in Bristol, south Glos have been shut tomorrow, or at least some of them. Stay safe everyone. I'm off to lock everything away and tie stuff down in the garden..

 

[swebby]

31 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well met office is showing Exeter at just above 60mph gusts tomorrow morning whereas bbc are showing just above 80mph, who's right?

I was assuming it was because of being in the leeward side of Dartmoor, but then i checked places like Okehampton for comparison and they are not that much worse.  Bude seems to top out at 74mph, and that is about as exposed as you will get.  I just assume there are slightly different calculations being made for the value, or different heights maybe e.g 2m vs 10m