Storm Eunice - 18th February

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Downburst said:

And snow in Kerry is as rare as hens teeth, let alone coming off the Atlantic. Just tells you how odd this thing is. This overrides any normal storm that’s for sure. 

It's common on the mountains but not at sea facing the sea - though the winds are off shore there. 

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, Jayces said:

I'm pretty sure the big pink area out to sea is thus due to it being flat so nothing to moderate the wind. As a rule coasts will always have the strongest gusts but inland they will be reduced by topography and buildings etc. So regardless of movement there will always be less pink overland. At least that's my take on it, I could be wrong of course.

Your correct. The OP should stop splitting hairs and folks should stop replying too. Bottom line is we know the general picture. Splitting hairs on an ICON run for heavens sake.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

The system is developing an elongated centre, the southern centre develops first then the northern becomes dominant by midday tomorrow.... Probably. Still a lot could happen between now and then. So yeah it might be marginally further north but it's hard to say due to the complex structure.

Fascinating stuff.

Yeah i can see that. The icon does show this however at a much higher pressure gradient and lower pressure to me tells me this is going north of predictions. Im not talking 150 miles but for me its north of the models

Edited February 17, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[Downburst]

Just now, The Eagle said:

It's common on the mountains but not at sea facing the sea - though the winds are off shore there. 

It’s not common on the mountains in Kerry, believe me I know, but I’ll leave it there.

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, Downburst said:

And snow in Kerry is as rare as hens teeth, let alone coming off the Atlantic. Just tells you how odd this thing is. This overrides any normal storm that’s for sure. 

Massive wet flakes!

[SenlacJack]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

IMO the red warning should have been extended but it’s now too late and many people are going to be making journeys they shouldn’t .

Unfortunately in my experience far too many people aren't even aware of the warnings,  and those that are  either don't have a clue what they mean or just ignore them anyway. 

[Matty M]

Assessing the IR satellite of STORM EUNICE at 21z and comparing to the simulated ECMWF 12z IR Forecast for 21z it seems meteorologically sound to conclude the system is somewhat more developed at this time than progged by the ECMWF 12z output with a more structured and defined centre.

 

Best of luck to all in the coming days and take care.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Matty M

[Skullzrulerz]

6 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

There is no change from the Met Office red warning area and it is not true that there is any significant move northwards (which has been another of your tiresome little mantras). The only change is that the low appears to be deepening more significantly and rapidly than even the Met forecast at this early stage. That makes the pink area more, not less, extensive.

And I know exactly where Cornwall is, thanks. 

To be frank you have spent the last few days constantly attempting to pooh-pooh this storm. This is what you posted:

 

The met office will reserve that right to update the Red Warning as they please, as said it will become a nowcasting situation as even you have said it's deeper then forecast.

Even small changes in positioning of said low can have big differences in some areas.

Thank you very much for bringing up my post, for you're information there's no wheelies bins out as bin day is cancelled.

 

 

[Thunder Snow]

Well Dudley was quite a suprise quite gusty, this storm hopefully wont be bad here. Stay safe further South all. Would be nice to see some snowy doubt it.

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, Jayces said:

I'm pretty sure the big pink area out to sea is thus due to it being flat so nothing to moderate the wind. As a rule coasts will always have the strongest gusts but inland they will be reduced by topography and buildings etc. So regardless of movement there will always be less pink overland. At least that's my take on it, I could be wrong of course.

Thank you for explaining, much appreciated.

[Sidsnake]

And as this starts to hit there are only three words really.... "stay safe all"

[seb]

My contact at county council level says they’re being updated by the MetO hourly and discussions about going red for the SE has been going for hours. With every update the already borderline situation gets closer to red.

Edited February 17, 2022 by seb

[Porto]

GFS seems to be (mostly) the same, more stretched out as it goes over the UK resulting it looking a little bit more south? GFS so low res though that its not super useful for specifics

[Nick F]

18z GFS seems to have shunted strongest gusts further south or shrunk the extent of 70-80mph gusts at least, more of an elongated  double centre of the depression, with the northern centre deeper than the southern centre crossing England, but still tight enough gradient on southern flank of the low to bring damaging winds to southern England.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Nick F

[Mark Bayley]

FWIW 18z GFS reduces the extent of the strongest gusts, but still very strong around the coasts. Though at this stage best to stick to the high res / now casting!

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mark Bayley

[Midlander]

GFS seems to have further downgraded the winds - quite a bit lower compared to what other models are showing

 

[Skullzrulerz]

When does the ECM Update?

 

 

 

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

When does the ECM Update?

Monday morning around 3am 

[cookie27]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

18z GFS seems to have shunted strongest gusts a little further south, more of an elongated  double centre of the depression, with a wave the northern centre deeper than the southern, but still tight enough gradient on southern flank of the low to bring damaging winds to southern England.

Does this bring the snow risk much further south too???

[Mark Smithy]

Night all. See you in the morning, as it were. Stay safe everyone.

[Jackski4]

Just now, Mark Smithy said:

Monday morning around 3am 

??? It updates in a few hours?

[Jayces]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

??? It updates in a few hours?

I remember when it only updated twice a day

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

18z GFS seems to have shunted strongest gusts further south or shrunk the extent of 70-80mph gusts at least, more of an elongated  double centre of the depression, with a wave the northern centre deeper than the southern, but still tight enough gradient on southern flank of the low to bring damaging winds to southern England.

How will it sit in the ensemble’s though? At odds with icon and hirlam 

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, cookie27 said:

Does this bring the snow risk much further south too???

Not really, only perhaps for northern England. Because the low is more elongated N-S across N England and into S Scotland as it moves east, the cold air is not really coming further south.

[Man With Beard]

Meanwhile the sting jet is *back* on the ARPEGE 18Z