Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Philbill]

There must be a possibility this system could spawn a tornado?

[GSP]

1 minute ago, Hammer said:

I am sure if UK public demands this in future it will happen. I can't think the spend would be warranted IMHO. But maybe my view is outdated. I would not be surprised.

They’ll be a UK Weather Channel next!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting watching the forecasts in the Netherlands and N Germany, they’re also going nuts about Eunice. Looks just as nasty for their coastline as it does in Cornwall, Wales and Bristol. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

The pub run is massive outlier 

That's no big surprise, everything else, literally everything, including its own suite are much stronger. Don't think this outlier is a late trend setter somehow.

[Downburst]

Just for fun and you won’t read this in the sun or daily Mail, but from the encyclopaedia Britannica. “cyclogenesis, in meteorology, the process of extratropical cyclone development and intensification. Cyclogenesis is initiated by a disturbance occurring along a stationary or very slow-moving front between cold and warm air. This disturbance distorts the front into the wavelike configuration..” as you all know the flat powerful jet running at great strength over us was primed to have a chance of delivering one of the rare left exit lows this way.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm....

 

[SnowBear]

4 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Eye wall? I’d refer to tropical cyclone’s and the completely different physic’s at work there. This is a storm created by cyclogenisis and has a total imbalance compared to a tropical cyclone. But we’ll leave the science out for tonight.

Although not in the same sense that a tropical cyclone creates an eye and eye wall, severe extratropical and subtropical storms can form eye features. 

[Andy Pepler]

3 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am sure if UK public demands this in future it will happen. I can't think the spend would be warranted IMHO. But maybe my view is outdated. I would not be surprised.

use drones (not toys) and balloons ..dont need to use manned flights anymore  

 

[Dbarb]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmm....

 

Definitely some rendering issues going on with that I'd ignore it

[Andy Pepler]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmm....

 

did the model drop a nut ??

[Philbill]

K2 buoy now shows 983mb a drop of 4mb in the last hour.

[GSP]

4 minutes ago, Philbill said:

There must be a possibility this system could spawn a tornado?

Estofex has much of the SE south of Thames under a level 1, but mainly for the chance of a sting jet, only slight risk of a tornado.

[SnowBear]

10 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am sure if UK public demands this in future it will happen. I can't think the spend would be warranted IMHO. But maybe my view is outdated. I would not be surprised.

Not cost effective, we don't get anywhere near the threats from storms that the US does. Its worth them having a fully manned recon squadron as they can recon hurricanes and investigation flights on tropical storms many times in a hurricane season. 

Most of our storms wouldnt warrant having that tech and personnel laying idle around only to be used perhaps once or even less per year. 

Edited February 18, 2022 by SnowBear
Spelling

[Hammer]

5 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Not cost effective, we don't get anywhere near the threats from storms that the US does. Its worth them having a fully manned recon squadron as they can recon hurricanes and investigation flights on tropical storms many times in a hurricane season. 

Most of our storms wouldnt warrant having that tech and personnel lauig idle around around only to be used perhaps once or even less per year. 

I agree with you sir. Your reply good to the original question.

Edited February 18, 2022 by Hammer

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, Philbill said:

There must be a possibility this system could spawn a tornado?

Certainly wouldn't rule one out along the cold front squall moving through first thing in the morning but also in any convective showers wrapping in around the southwest and western side of the low. Will be lots of strong vertical and speed shear in place.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Rich_T said:

Message just in, storm, what storm? Its all quite here, see you tomorrow 

Not started yet, that might be why.

[weatherobsuk]

The Met Office had their own aircraft on display (Cosford Airshow) in 2017, i'm not sure if it's still about now but Transatlantic Flight data is normally incorporated alongside Satellite data into the forecast model runs.

 

[SnowBear]

Just now, SNOW_JOKE said:

The Met Office had their own aircraft on display (Cosford Airshow) in 2017, i'm not sure if it's still about now but Transatlantic Flight data is normally incorporated alongside Satellite data into the forecast model runs.

 

I bet its firmly grounded tonight though

[Andy Pepler]

latest pressure from west wilts ..its falling quicker ..woha

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, GSP said:

People are literally going to get battered out there tomorrow. They’ll be an inquest why so many people were out and about. If we could see it coming, then……

Thing is, there are warnings, if people bother reading past the fact that it's amber, they'll see it a big storm with bad impacts. Unfortunately the only problem is wilful ignorance, which has probably been bought on by newspaper and news outlets sensationalism. 

[geordiekev]

Nice to see a return of the pink blobs, where've you been all 2022

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Mark88 said:

Automated forecasts have a lot to answer for too. The general public will check their devices and see frankly wrong information. For my postcode today, for example, BBC app has gone from showing gusts of 70mph to a max of 21mph and a headline of 'Light rain showers and a fresh breeze.' In an amber wind warning...Now we all realise that they're automated and flawed but as I said, Joe public doesn't know and whilst it's normally just an annoyance, it could actually put people and property at risk in this instance. 

That'll be that 18z, which I think we all agree, with it's suite is way out. Yep wrong information, and most people listen to apps. Not looking good really.

[DerbyshireDales]

I’m really not happy about my two going to school tomorrow!

[geordiekev]

Looks like the shift North on the 18z's has added a couple of extra cm. Bank

Will make both rush hour commutes very tricky for some

Edited February 18, 2022 by geordiekev

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just now, DerbyshireDales said:

I’m really not happy about my two going to school tomorrow!

Me either!!! The walk is going to be horrific!